Hanson: Spot Plays for York Aug. 23

August 21st, 2024

Day 3 of the Ebor Festival at York is highlighted by the Nunthorpe (G1), a five-furlong dash that could have implications on the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1) at Del Mar this fall. That race and the traditional two-year-old feature of the meeting, the six-furlong Gimcrack (G2), are the races I'll be investing in Friday.

After Yaroogh beat a quick retreat in the Acomb (G3) and Calandagan fell a length short of City of Troy in the Juddmonte International (G1) on Wednesday, my English betting bankroll now stands at $440. I'll be investing 5% of the outstanding balance on each win selection.

Race 3: Gimcrack (G2), 10 a.m. ET

The Gimcrack is one of the few juveniles features in England that the Coolmore juggernaut has not had frequent success in. You have to go back to 2001 and the brilliant Rock of Gibraltar to find an Aidan O'Brien-trained winner.

That cold streak might end here via #5 Camille Pissarro (5-1). 

He finished a close second in both the Marble Hill (G3) and Anglesey (G3) at the Curragh this season, with the competition at least in the latter proving better than the actual grade of the race. On top in the Anglesey was the filly Babouche, who returned to beat the O'Brien-trained colt Whistlejacket in the Phoenix (G1). Whistlejacket rebounded to win the Prix Morny (G1) last weekend.

The one dull finish by Camille Pissarro was in the Coventry (G2) at Royal Ascot. Although he was 11th of 22, he was beaten only four lengths by huge longshot Rashabar, who was basically the only horse among the far-side runners to be close at the finish. Camille Pissarro was at a seeming disadvantage being in that group, and Rashabar proved that performance was no fluke when finishing second to Whistlejacket in the Morny.

Camille Pissarro's form lines are more than favorable to land the Gimcrack for connections that swept all three Group races Wednesday.

Race 4: Nunthorpe (G1), 10:35 a.m. ET

The current favorite, Asfoora, is preferred in her rubber match with second choice Big Evs, but the value here lies with #1 Bradsell (7-1).

Returning from an 11-month spell 19 days ago, Bradsell got in a winning prep in the Prix du Cercle at Deauville, the same race #3 Live in the Dream (10-1) used as a prep before registering a 28-1 upset of the 2023 Nunthorpe.

Although Live in the Dream's recent form is not as sharp as it was a year ago, Bradsell can certainly build on the promise he displayed as a three-year-old last season. 

The highlight was an upset victory over Highfield Princess in the King's Stand (G1) at Royal Ascot, a race traditionally difficult for a three-year-old to win. He followed up with a decent third in the Nunthorpe behind Live in the Dream and Highfield Princess.

Presumably quicker now with maturity, Bradsell has to be given a long look, given the current market. The one drawback is his 139-pound impost, which means he must concede the younger Big Evs two pounds and the mare Asfoora three pounds.

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