Harry Kane favored to top Premier League in goals for 2021-22 season

The English Premier League kicks off Friday, and one of the most exciting, season-long prop wagers is the Golden Boot race.

This season has a wide-open battle, and we are here to help you find the winning wager.

Kane is the favorite, but his future is unknown

The soap opera surrounding Tottenham striker Harry Kane is one of the most intriguing story lines of the summer transfer window, but it has created serious uncertainty for bettors.

Kane is the focus of everything Tottenham does, but he wants to leave the club he has supported since childhood.

Manchester City is the favorite to sign him, but Spurs are hesitant to sell, as a sale this late would make it difficult to replace him.

Kane returned to training this week, but he did so a week late. The friction in Spurs camp is quite high, and there is no real sign as to how it will go.

If he stays at Tottenham, Kane has every reason to be the favorite. He is the reigning Golden Boot winner, and his 23rd goal, on the final day of the season, gave him the lead over Mohamed Salah of Liverpool. Kane was five goals clear of third-place Bruno Fernandes, and he also won the Premier League Playmaker award, with a league-high 14 assists. Kane is one of only three players to win the Golden Boot in three different seasons.

If Kane goes to City, it gets tricky. There would be plenty of goals in the side, but many players will want their piece. Additionally, Kane would likely get rotated out for matches at a much-higher rate than with Spurs, as Pep Guardiola would want him available for Champions League matches in the second half of the season.

Lukaku and Salah will be right there at the end

Salah won the Golden Boot in 2017-18, with a stunning 32 goals, and tied with teammate Sadio Mane and Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang the following season, with 22 goals. After 22 goals last season in 34 matches, he is again expected to be Golden Boot contender for a Liverpool side that will look to return to its championship form, after injuries decimated its season last year.

Romelu Lukaku has come home, as he returned to Chelsea in a blockbuster move, after a dominating run last year in Serie A, with Inter Milan, where he finished second in goals, behind Cristiano Ronaldo.

Lukaku had 24 goals and 11 assists in 36 matches last season. He converted 31% of his shots and put nearly two-thirds of them on target. He scored 30 goals in all competitions, and will join a Chelsea side that capped last season off with a Champions League victory.

Salah will be the primary focus of the Liverpool offensive attack, but he lacks the weapons around him that Lukaku has.

That can be both a blessing and a curse. It will allow defenses to key on Salah, but it also means he will see the majority of scoring chances. Salah also takes some free kicks and is the primary penalty taker.

Lukaku will not take a single set piece, as teammate Jorginho is lethal on spot kicks, so it will be unlikely he gets those “free” goals. However, he will have plenty of opportunities to make runs off teammates, and will get service in the box that Salah lacks.

Which longshot has the best chance?

Aubameyang is going to miss the opener Friday and had a poor season last year, but he is still a terrific forward and will be the point man for the Arsenal attack. If he can recover his form from two years ago, you can get him at a terrific price.

Fernandes also provides solid value, but he will have more weapons this season to work with. He takes penalties for Manchester United, which is a big help, but teammate Edinson Cavani may score more goals this campaign.

Jamie Vardy is a third longshot to watch, as the Leicester talisman continues to defy Father Time. Another spot-kick taker, he is always a threat, if healthy, to reach the 20-goal mark. However, he is expected to be rotated a bit more this season, as Patson Daka was brought in this summer to help in attack.

Who should you pick?

I believe Lukaku is the man to beat.

Chelsea dominated possession under Thomas Tuchel last year, but no team wasted more scoring opportunities. The players around Lukaku are going to provide him with outstanding service, and playing central will help him quite a bit.

If Kane stays in London, he won’t be happy and could push for a mid-season change. If he moves to Manchester, the weapons around him and the focus on Champions League means he will likely see himself rested down the stretch.

Salah is always a threat, but he needs help in attack, with the regression of Mane and Roberto Firmino. Liverpool will also have to replace Gio Wijnaldum in midfield, and there are questions as to how well the Reds will bounce back.

Go with the big Belgian to lead the league in goals and maybe lead his team to a title.

EPL free pick: Romelu Lukaku to score most goals +500