Hong Kong: Selections for Happy Valley Feb. 19

Racing at Happy Valley begins at 5:35 a.m. ET. Selections and analysis by Luke Middlebrook.

Race 1: TSING YI HANDICAP

#10 Hoss hasn't won for a long time but is having just his fourth attempt in Class 5 and has been catching the eye with strong runs since the class drop. Importantly, he returns to his best track and distance, and if he is within reach when it matters, he can launch his late bid. #6 Winning Heart is another well suited back at Happy Valley after fading into fourth at Sha Tin last time in a fast-run race. Prior to that, he strung together a series of placings and looks on track for another win sooner rather than later. #8 Same To You will roll forward, as he likes to do, and should give a sight. His trial between runs, following an excusable 10th-place finish at Sha Tin from a wide draw, was encouraging. #5 Talents Supremo makes his Class 5 debut and is one to follow. He can be slow away at times but possesses a sharp turn of foot that brings him into contention.

Race 2: KWAI CHUNG HANDICAP

#2 Perfect General produced a meritorious third first-up after racing too keenly in the early stages. He should take marked improvement from that run second-up and finds a winnable race where he can bounce back to his best. #1 Golden Luck cannot be overlooked in this grade and was last seen giving a good sight before fading late into fifth, not beaten far. That race has proven to be a solid form reference, which holds him in good stead to bounce back into the money. #7 Golden Friendship did not disgrace on debut in the same race as Golden Luck, maintaining fourth position throughout and beaten only two lengths. Natural improvement is expected. #5 Our Lucky Glory is having his second attempt back in Class 4, where his record reads well. His first run back in the grade was better than it appears—he jumped awkwardly, was steadied at the 1000m, and still ran on fairly to finish sixth, beaten just over three lengths.

Race 3: KWAI CHUNG HANDICAP

#3 Lucky Archangel drops back into Class 4 and should show much more early speed than in recent Class 3 starts if his previous winning form is any guide. He was strong in a recent trial without being tested and looks well placed to make his presence felt. #2 Fortune Whiskey continues to thrive since switching to David Eustace's yard, picking up his second win of the season last time out. He doesn't look done in the ratings yet and, on paper, shapes as the one to hold out late. #4 Motoman is finding his feet in Hong Kong and in this grade after taking some time to come to hand. Since winning well three starts ago, he has gone close in two subsequent runs, including a last-start third. #6 One For All needs to lift on recent form, but this marks his third run back in Class 4, where all four of his career wins have come. He loves to lead and could get a soft time up front, giving him every chance to run a bold race.

Race 4: THE ROTARY CENTENARY CHALLENGE CUP (HANDICAP)

#1 Flying Fortress catches the eye dropping into Class 4 and stepping up in trip, though the rise in distance is a query with no form beyond 1200m. However, he hasn't been beaten far in three Class 3 runs in Hong Kong, most recently finishing well from the back in two city circuit outings. Capable of surprising at odds. #7 Wah May Wai Wai makes his own luck from the front and did not disgrace last time, fading late into fourth after setting an unsuitably strong tempo. He is edging closer to a win and, if afforded a more favorable race shape, will be the one to peg back. #9 Firefoot won impressively two starts ago but was forced to work early from a wide draw last time to find a forward position. He was entitled to tire late and can improve with a softer trip. #5 Thesis has slipped down the ratings and looks poised to win soon, having not been beaten far in recent runs despite finding trouble in running.

Race 5: TSUEN WAN HANDICAP

#5 Champion Method maps to get the right run, with plenty of speed engaged while he can camp just off them and be produced late. That was exactly the scenario three starts ago when he charged home from the back of the pack to snatch victory on the line. #6 Parents' Love won solidly last start, leading from pillar to post from barrier 10—that's his preferred racing style. However, he looks set to face more early pressure here, which could affect his chances late. #3 Allgreektome finally drops back into Class 4, where his chances improve. He is another on-speed runner who needs to lift off recent Class 3 form but should be in the firing line for a long way. #1 Grand Nova is also back in grade after struggling to measure up in Class 3. He can take advantage of a strong tempo and will be finishing powerfully from off the speed.

Race 6: THE CONSENSUS CUP (HANDICAP)

#5 Star Mac had always shown ability, yet it took him 17 attempts to notch up his first local win. The switch to Happy Valley proved key as he secured victory in ultra-impressive fashion, hugging the rails and drawing clear. One to beat. #7 Charity Gain aims to extend his perfect track and distance record to three from three after a big last-to-first victory at the top of Class 4 last time. David Eustace's five-year-old looks set to climb higher in the handicap, and while he rises in class, the drop in weight will serve him well. #1 Flamingo Trillion is one to watch back in Class 3. He has been finishing close up in much stronger races than this, and the step back up to 1800m, where he boasts a 50 percent win rate, puts him firmly in contention. #8 Fallon looks set to get the race run to suit his get-back, run-on style. He has been closing in well at Sha Tin in recent starts and has never been beaten far.

Race 7: MA WAN HANDICAP

#8 Aurio switches to Happy Valley for the first time after catching the eye with fast-finishing efforts in strong races at Sha Tin. Last start, he was steadied early from a wide draw before closing well for sixth, beaten 1 3/4 lengths. A good amount of speed here should set up nicely for him to charge home late. #1 Beauty Destiny continues his rich vein of form, finding career-best levels this season with three wins from six starts. Now sitting at the top of Class 3 with top weight, he is on the verge of Class 2. #3 Sports Legend trialed impressively leading into his return and is one of several pace influences in the race. His form before a let-up was solid, and he can run a big race fresh. #12 Thunder Prince had an eventful run last time, copping an early check before racing keenly and being further steadied through the middle stages. A race to forget, and he can improve on that effort.

Race 8: MA WAN HANDICAP

#5 Spicy Gold was caught wide without cover throughout last time but stuck on well in the straight, finishing fifth, beaten just a length. That effort followed two encouraging runs since rising to Class 3, and he gets his chance to break through in the grade here. #9 Young Arrow has signaled he is ready to win, flashing home late for third in his last two starts after drawing wide, beaten just under a length on both occasions. With an ounce of early luck, he is right in the mix. #10 Giant Leap returns to a course and distance where he should be more effective. His recent runs have been promising, fading late in a fast-run race last start to finish just over two lengths behind The Boom Box. #1 Eternal Fortune stormed home for second over the minimum trip last start after jumping awkwardly and losing ground. That was a big run, and the step back up to 1200m is key to his chances.

Race 9: KAP SHUI MUN HANDICAP

#10 Quantum Patch attracted decent betting support last time out and finished sixth, beaten three lengths, but had no luck late in the straight after copping a nasty check at the 200m. Worthy of another chance third-up in a wide-open race. #5 New Forest is likeable on the seven-day back-up after a promising second-up effort over this distance on the all-weather, where he led until the 200m before being collared and finishing third, beaten just over a length. He looks on the verge of a win. #1 Soleil Fighter made his own luck out in front last time, securing his second local win comfortably. He has shown tactical versatility, so he won't necessarily have to lead again, while his consistency and upward trajectory make him a leading contender once more. #4 Aestheticism tends to settle back in his races, meaning he requires more luck than those up on the pace. He is yet to break his Class 3 duck after 13 attempts, but his last-start second to Star Mac shows he has the ability to win in this grade—he just needs things to fall into place.