How to bet the Falls City Stakes

A strong field of eight fillies and mares will vie for your best bet in the Thanksgiving Day co-feature at Churchill Downs, the $400,000 Falls City S. (G3). Locust Grove S. (G2) heroine #4 Musical Mischief (2-1) has taken her game to new heights this campaign and is the one to beat due to her current form. Trained by Michael McCarthy, the bay filly has finished first or second in four of her last five encounters, led by her dominant showing on the oval last time when earning her initial grades stakes win. 

Falls City Wagers

• $15 exacta 4 with 1,2 ($30)
• 50-cent superfecta 4 with 1,2,6 with 1,2,6 with all ($15)

Musical Mischief owns a trio of lifetime tallies beneath the Twin Spires which includes an 11 1/2-length allowance romp here 12 months ago. The Into Mischief four-year-old has excellent positional speed, and I expect her to track the action from the second flight to the top of the lane with Edgar Morales retaining the mount. 

#1 Neon Icon (15-1) is an interesting exotics contender in the field at a healthy price for trainer Rusty Arnold. The gray daughter of Arrogate was a smart allowance victress at the distance at Keeneland most recently and also owns a victory at Churchill Downs, too. The Kentucky-bred sophomore was an even fifth in a strong stakes race here two back at the 1 1/16-mile voyage, and I feel that she is better at nine panels and beyond. Luis Saez will have the miss saving ground throughout from the rail. 

Three-time Grade 2 heroine #2 Tarifa (9-5) was super game in a Mother Goose S. (G2) triumph in her latest showing and is a must-use for conditioner Brad Cox. The Godolphin homebred has a lot of class to her, and while she went unplaced in her first pair of assignments on the Churchill strip, the sophomore has trained steadily as of late and can’t be ignored with Flavien Prat retaining the mount. The Bernardini filly will always be in striking range in the affair. 

#6 Loved (3-1), also a Godolphin homebred, ran into the superb Idiomatic last out when sixth in the Spinster S. (G1) and will appreciate the measure of class relief in the contest. The Brendan Walsh pupil can be very good on her best day, and I like that she drew a post outside of the major players in the field. This Medaglia d’Oro mare will be well placed at the top of the lane with Tyler Gaffalione in the stirrups.