How to bet the Lake Erie Stakes

A total of eight Ontario-bred sophomores will go 6 1/2 panels on the Fort Erie main strip in the $100,000 Lake Erie S. on Tuesday. The dash is a tricky one to decipher in that just a single contender in the cast has ever raced on the dirt, making virtually every entrant in the heat something of a wildcard. 

Lake Erie Wagers

• $20 win #1 Junior Hot Shot ($20)
• $1 trifecta key 1 with 3,4 with all ($12)
• 20-cent superfecta 1,4 with 1,3,4 with 1,3,4,6 with all ($8)

#1 Junior Hot Shot (3-1), one of three in the field for trainer John Ross, will get the slight nod from the rail in the heat. The dark bay son of Souper Speedy was stakes placed during his brief juvenile campaign. Following a trio of stakes tries in 2024, the colt broke through with his initial black-type tally in the Elgin S. on the Woodbine Tapeta last time out. He has kept good company throughout his career leading up to today, and the three-year-old also has a versatile running style to give options to Justin Stein in the early going. I expect him to save ground from the second flight to the top of the lane before inching clear late en route to his second tally in succession. 

#4 Live Lucky (2-1) is the obvious one to beat following a trio of clear wins from as many starts to commence his career for conditioner Kevin Attard. Dark bay son of Perfect Timber led at every call in blitzing his foes in both the Lake Superior S. and Lake Huron S. as of late, but those efforts came on the green and he might not be as formidable with the transition to the dirt in this spot. The $55,000 yearling purchase is a fine talent, nonetheless, and he wouldn’t be a surprise against this cast with Rafael Hernandez in the stirrups. 

I don’t expect #3 No More Options (8-1) to upset this field, but the colt could make the frame at a nice price from off the pace. Frac Daddy colt cuts back from 1 1/4 miles after an unsuccessful bid in the King’s Plate in his latest offering, which I view as a positive, as he is a stakes winner at today’s distance. The bargain $5,000 auction purchase sizzled a bullet half-mile in advance of Tuesday and will benefit from having Kaz Kimura in the silks.