How to bet With, and Against, Nice As Pie in the Mamzelle

A massive group has been entered for Saturday’s $225,000 Mamzelle S. at Churchill Downs. The 5 1/2-furlong turf dash is led by #2 Nice As Pie (9-5) who is 4-for-4 on the Turfway synthetic this season, with wins in the Valdale S. and Serena’s Song S. in succession as of late. I can’t fault anyone who will side with the streaking daughter of Tapiture, who is cut out for the green being a half-sister to a turf sprint stakes winner. The Dede McGehee homebred has been visually impressive in her tallies and is the clear one to beat with Adam Beschizza staying in the silks. In a race lacking a world of early gas, Nice As Pie could settle in the second or third flight while saving ground to the top of the lane. 

Nice As Pie – With

• 50-cent superfecta 2 with 9,12 with 3,5,6,9,12 with all ($44)

Nice as Pie – Against

• $12 exacta box 9-12 ($24)
  $1 trifecta 9,12 with 2,9,12 with 2,3,5,6,9,12 ($16)

I expect the early tempo to be established by#1 Let Them Watch (20-1), #11 Niki Nine Doors (8-1), and Wesley Ward’s #12 Imaboutago (7-2), with the latter getting preference from me. The Calyx filly has yet to be headed from a pair of career runs to date, and she looked real good in her 2024 debut when dominating a decent group at Fair Grounds on March 20. The Irish-bred has rated on the lead in both attempts and has room for improvement, as well. She’ll have Tyler Gaffalione in the irons. 

Graham Motion’s #9 Toupie (12-1) is my top longshot contender in the field. The daughter of Uncle Mo had a very good juvenile season led by a big stakes win at Aqueduct in November, and she won by eight lengths on debut at Laurel to prove that she can fire while fresh, too. If she takes the next step from two to three, then the homebred will be in the hunt inside the final furlong beneath Jorge Ruiz. 

For the lower rungs of the gimmicks, #3 Big Trouble (20-1), #5 Cloudwalker (8-1), and #6 Tipsy Runner (15-1) each have appeal.