Italy vs. England: Euro 2020 Final trends every bettor should know
Harry Kane of England celebrates scoring their third goal during the UEFA Euro 2020 quarter-final match at the Stadio Olimpico, Rome. (Photo by Sportimage/Imago/Icon Sportswire)
July 8th, 2021
A month after the first ball was kicked in Rome, 24 teams have become two. Italy and England will face 90 minutes at Wembley to decide who will be crowned European champion.
Italy last lifted the trophy in 1968, while England will make its first European Championship final appearance and its first final in a major international tournament in 55 years.
As we build up to the big game, I’ve dug into the 15 previous European Championships, back all the way to 1960, to see how the final normally plays out and what the key betting trends are.
Both teams to score?
This one is close on the bare numbers. In 47% of finals, both teams have found the net inside 90 minutes. Dig a little deeper, though, and it appears football has changed in recent times. It might be better to side with “no” in this bet.
In each of the last four finals, “no” would have won. Greece won 1-0 at Euro 2004, Spain won 1-0 in 2008 and then 4-0 in 2012, and in 2016, Portugal and France were scoreless after 90 minutes. If you go all the way back to 1984 and look at the last nine European Championship finals, “no” has clicked 78% of the time.
Recent history suggests tight, defensive finals, and that would be no surprise for Italy and England. Italy has only conceded twice inside 90 minutes during this tournament, and England has conceded just once.
7️⃣2️⃣5️⃣ minutes without conceding. @JPickford1: #ThreeLions record holder! 👏 pic.twitter.com/picQeCplgT
— England (@England) July 8, 2021
Recommended bet: Both teams to score (No, -150)
Over 2.5 Goals?
In 66% of all European Championship finals, there have been fewer than 2.5 goals, and that number jumps to 89% if we look at the last nine finals, back to 1984.
The only exception was Spain’s 4-0 win against Italy in 2012, but that Spanish team is considered one of the all-time greatest squads of footballers. Their winning run in Euro 2008, World Cup 2010, and Euro 2012 is an unbelievable success story for a once-in-a-lifetime group of players.
When a leader speaks, you listen. #VivoAzzurro #EURO2020 #ITA #ITAESP pic.twitter.com/6NahbnzcyS
— Italy ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (@Azzurri_En) July 7, 2021
These finals tend to be close. You have to go back 41 years, to West Germany’s 2-1 win over Belgium, to find another final with more than 2.5 goals. It would be no surprise, given these teams' performances so far, if this one was under 2.5, as well.
Recommended bet: Under 2.5 goals (-215)
Corners, cards, and shots
Over the last five finals, we can dig into more detailed numbers on shots and corners.
There has been an average of 23.8 shots per final since the turn of the millennium and an average of 10.8 shots on target per game. Both finals that featured Italy (against France in 2000 and Spain in 2012) had a high number of shots on target (15 in each).
There has also been an average of 10.6 corners per final since Euro 2000, a number that would be higher but for Italy and Spain’s Euro 2012 final, which had just six corners and brings the average down a couple points.
England has averaged just 9.5 shots per game (ranked 20th) this tournament, and despite using the wings to attack during this competition, the English have only won an average of four corners per game. The Italians rank second in shots per game (18), and they’ve also had slightly more corners (4.6 per game).
Anyone for a #ThreeLions wallpaper?
— England (@England) July 8, 2021
We love these images from last night so thought you would too! 😍 pic.twitter.com/cBXdC8yCGd
The shots line is bang on the historical trends, but given the nature of Italy’s play this tournament, I’m happy to go with the Over.
The corners line is slightly lower than recent finals suggest, and despite the teams’ low tallies so far, I’m happy to go over again.
Recommended bet: Over 23.5 total shots (-118) and Over 8.5 total corners (-120)
Correct score
From all European Championship finals, 47% have been won to nil, so that could tempt you wither way, with Italy at +350 to win without conceding and England at +285. Unsurprisingly, in what is expected to be an incredibly tight game, 1-0 to Italy is +600 and 1-0 to England is +550.
Italy has the winning pedigree and is on a 33-game unbeaten streak. England has the best crop of players the nation has ever produced and will have a 60,000-strong home crowd behind them at Wembley.
It’s tighter than Pavarotti’s waistband, but I’m siding with England.