Keeneland Expert picks Friday, April 26

It’s closing day of the 2024 Keeneland Spring Meet! The Grade 3 Bewitch S., a 1 1/2-mile turf event, is the highlight of the 10-race card.

Below are our top picks for each race. Be sure to opt in to TwinSpires’ Daily Double Down promo for your final chance to receive a 25% boost on all winning Daily Double wagers at Keeneland if you hit two Daily Doubles on Friday!

Race 1: 5 1/2 furlongs (turf), maiden special weight, 2yo fillies

#7 Saturday Flirt (7-5) — Difficult to bet against the Wesley Ward maiden here. The Mendelssohn filly is out of a dam with a winner from one starter, and Irad Ortiz Jr. (21% on turf) is aboard. Ward is a 32% winner this meet and a 28% winner with first-time starters. Bullet three-furlong workout April 5.

#6 Goth (10-1) — First-time starter for Mike Maker, a 19% winner this meet and an 11% winner with first-time starters. The More Than Ready filly is out of a dam with one turf winner from two starters, and she put in a bullet four-furlong workout April 17 at Turfway Park. Luis Saez (12% on turf) is named to ride. He’s also 6-2-2-1 paired with Maker the last 14 days.

#4 Flip Flops (4-1) — War of Will filly makes debut for Mark Casse, a 10% winner with horses debuting on the turf and a 13% winner with first-time starters. Jose Ortiz is winning at a 22% clip this meet and a 19% clip on turf. Sharp recent workouts at Churchill Downs.

Race 2: 4 1/2 furlongs, maiden special weight, 2yos

#7 Burning Pine (4-5) — Nyquist filly makes debut for Wesley Ward, who’s been dominant this meet with a 31-10-6-3 record. He’s also a 27% winner with horses debuting at the maiden special weight level, and Joel Rosario (18% winner with sprints) is named to ride. Nyquist’s progeny win at a 14% rate with first-time starts, and the two-year-old’s dam has three winners from five starters, including two stakes winners. Bullet three-furlong workout April 5 at Keeneland.

#4 Spun Lovin (5-2) — The next-best filly in the field is likely to come from Ward’s barn as well. By Hard Spun (10% sire win rate with first-time starters), Spun Lovin’s dam also has one winner from two starters, and she’s looked super sharp in recent workouts at Keeneland. Gerardo Corrales (22% winner with sprints) will ride.

#8 Baytown Bulleit (20-1) — Improbable colt will make his first start for Paul McEntee, who got a win with a maiden last weekend at Keeneland. Gavin Ashton is aboard, and he’s a 10% winner with sprints. Sharp recent workouts at Keeneland.

#6 Mariposa de Pista (20-1) — Daredevil filly is out of a dam who has a winner from one starter, and trainer Maria Pinzon is winning at a 16% clip at the maiden special weight level, plus she has a positive ROI with first-time starters. Isaias Ayala will guide the two-year-old. Sharp workout March 30 at The Thoroughbred Center.

Race 3: one mile, allowance, fillies and mares 4yo and up

#3 New Rome (5-2) — Won back to back at today’s distance in first two starts since transferring to Jena Antonucci’s barn. Will move up in class and make her third start off a layoff. Filly’s 86 BRIS figure is the highest last race speed rating among the field, and Antonucci wins 18% of the time with horses coming off a win. Tyler Gaffalione will pick up the mount.

#9 Excellent Question (9-2) — Speightstown filly was far back in seventh last out in a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer but has a win at today’s distance in her lone start at Keeneland, where she broke her maiden in her second career turf start. Brendan Walsh is a 26% winner this meet and a 13% winner off layoffs of 46-90 days. Irad Ortiz Jr. will inherit the mount and strikes at a 21% rate on turf. Sharp four-furlong workout April 14 at Keeneland.

#2 Mrs. Astor (7-2) — Lookin At Lucky four-year-old had been facing stakes company, then dropped down to an allowance optional claimer last out and finished more than three lengths back in sixth racing a mile at Santa Anita. Jonathan Thomas is a 29% winner second off the layoff and a 19% winner at the allowance level, and John Velazquez will regain the mount. Closer is 0-for-3 with a third from today’s distance and has a second from two starts at Keeneland.

Race 4: 6 furlongs, maiden special weight, fillies and mares 3yo and up

#2 Barbtourage (3-1) — Into Mischief filly made her lone start last April when beaten to second by future multiple graded stakes winner Brightwork. Posted a 79 BRIS figure in the effort and will return off a layoff of more than a year for Wesley Ward, a 26% winner off layoffs of 90 or more days. Three-year-old may improve with Lasix (27% winning move for Ward), and John Velazquez will stay in the saddle. Barbtourage has also been putting in lengthy training at Keeneland.

#5 Barbara T (5-2) — Morning line favorite will return off a more than nine-month layoff after getting caught in the stretch to finish a half-length second on debut in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Del Mar last July; recorded 84 BRIS figure, the highest last out speed figure among the field. Michael McCarthy is a 17% winner off layoffs of 90 or more days and a 13% winner with second career starts, but he’s 0-for-7 this meet. Flavien Prat (30% with sprints) will pick up the mount. Sharp workout April 2 at Santa Anita, and this filly may improve racing on Lasix the first time.

#4 Dee Minus (6-1) — Four-year-old filly was beaten by a nose in first two career starts on Turfway’s all-weather when racing between six and 6 1/2 furlongs. She had the early lead last out but was beaten to third at the finish in a six-furlong maiden special weight. May improve with her first dirt start, and trainer Anna Navarrete is a 14% winner with the surface switch. Luan Machado will retain the mount.

#7 Tirupati (6-1) — Mitole filly makes first start for Jonathan Thomas, a 21% winner with horses debuting at the maiden special weight level. Jose Ortiz Jr. will ride, and he’s got a 14-6-3-2 record over the last week. Bullet four-furlong workout at Keeneland March 31. Breeding suited to today’s distance.

#10 Satin Blue (15-1) — Gray filly was far back in both career starts, both on turf, but can improve while trying dirt and racing with Lasix and blinkers for the first time. Will return off a more than six-month layoff for Joe Sharp, and Tyler Gaffalione will pick up the mount. He’s winning at a 19% rate with sprints and a 15% rate this meet. 

Race 5: 1 3/16 miles (turf), allowance, 3yos

#4 McAvoy (12-1) — Mark Casse trainee makes third career start after racing first two at 1 1/16 miles. Won on debut, then finished fourth by 1 1/2 lengths in an allowance optional claimer at Fair Grounds. Stamina influence on dam's side and should handle the stretch-out in distance. Casse is a 17% winner second off a layoff and a 14% winner with turf starts. Tyler Gaffalione will pick up the mount.

#10 Nomos (7-2) — Uncle Mo colt rallied to finish fourth two back in a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer on Gulfstream’s turf, then switched to dirt and stretched out to 1 1/8 miles. Todd Pletcher is a 15% winner going dirt to turf and a 22% winner off layoffs of 46-90 days. Irad Ortiz Jr. will regain the mount. 

#3 Uncle Truly (4-1) — Uncle Mo colt graduated at second asking racing a mile at Woodbine over turf labeled good, then faced stakes company and finished far back in 11th. Tried 1 1/8 miles in his fifth career start and faltered to finish fifth by 2 1/2 lengths. Jonathan Thomas is a 29% winner third off the layoff, and Jose Ortiz will ride. Sharp four-furlong workout at Turfway April 12. 

#6 Tough Little Nut (15-1) — Palace Malice colt won on debut racing 5 1/2 furlongs on turf, then stretched out to a mile and came home second. Has raced at 1 1/16 miles in his last two starts and was a three-length sixth last out in an allowance optional claimer at Fair Grounds while posting an 83 BRIS figure. Closer may improve with the added distance and racing on Lasix a second time. He’s also eligible to improve second off the layoff, and he’ll pick up Flavien Prat, a 21% winner on turf. Bullet four-furlong workout April 20 at Hawthorne.

#8 Thomas Aquinas (9-2) — Catholic Boy colt broke his maiden two back racing a mile on Keeneland’s turf, then stretched out to 1 1/16 miles on Gulfstream’s all-weather and finished fourth. Ian Wilkes is 13-2-2-2 this meet, and Brian Hernandez will regain the mount; he won with the three-year-old two back. Solid recent works at Churchill. Will race on Lasix a second time. Has a win and a nose second from two turf starts.

Race 6: 6 furlongs, allowance, 4yo and up

#1 One Giant Leap (2-1) — Will Take Charge gelding has just about everything going his way here, aside from his return off a long layoff. But Wesley Ward strikes at a 26% clip off layoffs of 90 or more days, and he’s a 24% winner at the allowance level. Four-year-old was last seen winning by 4 1/4 lengths in gate-to-wire fashion in a six-furlong allowance at Churchill on Nov. 10; recorded a 96 BRIS figure, the highest last race speed figure among the field. John Velazquez will retain the mount, and he’s 6-for-11 paired with Ward the last 14 days. The rail post is also winning at a 23% clip. One Giant Leap has a sharp five-furlong workout on April 19 at Keeneland as well. Viable single in horizontal wagers. 

#4 Miracle Worker (6-1) — Speed figures are a bit light compared to others in the field, but Into Mischief colt can improve off a more than two-month layoff for Brad Cox, a 35% winner this meet. Four-year-old was last seen graduating in his third career start when getting up to win by a nose in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Oaklawn in February; posted an 87 BRIS figure. Has looked sharp in recent workouts, and he’s one of the few late runners in the field. With so much speed signed on, he could get a hot pace to run into. Axel Concepcion and Cox are 5-2-2-0 paired up the last 14 days.

#2 Mullikin (3-1) — Violence colt weakened to fourth last out in a six-furlong allowance at Ellis in July and will return off a more than nine-month layoff for Rodolphe Brisset, a 22% winner off layoffs of 90 or more days and at the allowance level. Flashed a 94 BRIS figure three back when romping to a 10-length maiden win at 6 1/2 furlongs last May at Churchill. Flavien Prat (30% with sprints) will pick up the mount. Sharp recent works at Keeneland.

Race 7: 6 furlongs, maiden special weight, 3yos

#6 Stinger Bee (7-2) — Three-year-old gelding came home a length second last out in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Fair Grounds in first start since transferring to Nacho Correas’ barn. Son of Bee Jersey clocked an 88 Brisnet Speed figure in the effort, his fourth career start. Correas is a 19% winner with horses making their second start with the trainer, and Irad Ortiz Jr. (18% with sprints) will retain the mount. Fastest three-furlong workout of 35 runners at Keeneland on April 20.

#9 Alcove (9-5) — Colt is by Twirling Candy, whose progeny win at an 18% rate with their first career starts, and the three-year-old is out of a dam with a winner from one starter. Brad Cox is winning at a 35% clip this meet and a 22% clip with first-time starters. Bullet works at Keeneland recently. Florent Geroux is a 33% winner with sprints and 10-for-28 paired with Cox the last two months.

#2 World Record (6-1) — Gun Runner colt makes first start for Rodolphe Brisset, a 21% winner at the maiden special weight level and a 15% winner with first-time starters. Sire win rate of Gun Runner is 17%, and World Record’s dam has produced a winner from two starters. Sharp workouts at Keeneland in early April. Flavien Prat (30% with sprints) is named to ride.

#5 Beckster (8-1) — The other Brisset runner in the field is out of a dam who has three winners from four starters. Tyler Gaffalione is aboard and strikes at a 19% rate with sprints. Sharp four-furlong workout at Keeneland but has mainly trained at Turfway Park.

#4 Schwarzmeier (15-1) — Liam’s Map colt finished third and fourth in two career starts at 6 1/2 furlongs over in California. Will race on Lasix the first time, a winning move 15% of the time for John Sadler, who’s a 21% winner with shippers. Will return off a more than five-month layoff and looked ultra fast in recent workouts at Santa Anita.

Race 8: 1 1/2 miles (turf), Bewitch S. (G3), fillies and mares 4yo and up

#6 War Like Goddess (3-5) — Faced males in her last two and won by 4 1/2 lengths over yielding turf in the 1 1/2-mile Turf Classic (G1) at Aqueduct, then finished 4 1/4 lengths back in seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) in November. Three back, she was beaten by a neck at today’s distance in the Glens Falls (G2) at Saratoga, but she’s 10-7-1-1 overall at 1 1/2 miles with a career-best 107 BRIS figure, and she’s won the Bewitch each of the last three years. Eligible to improve off a long layoff for Bill Mott, a 17% winner this meet and a 22% winner in graded stakes. English Channel mare is also 3-for-4 at Keeneland. Junior Alvarado will retain the mount, and he's 5-2-2-0 the last 14 days paired with Mott.

If playing against the favorite…

#5 Lovely Princess (8-1) — Twirling Candy five-year-old is 2-for-3 at Keeneland and won two back in a 1 1/16-mile stake at Fair Grounds. The late runner has a second from two tries at 1 1/2 miles, and she’ll keep regular rider Brian Hernandez Jr., a 13% winner this meet. Kenny McPeek is a 26% winner at Keeneland and a 13% winner off layoffs of 90 or more days.

#2 Queens Command (12-1) — Five-year-old mare makes first start for Brian Lynch, a 26% winner with horses making their first start with the trainer and a 19% winner with shippers. The Irish-bred has two U.S. starts, a win at a mile on turf in an allowance optional claimer at Santa Anita and a second in the 1 1/4-mile Santa Ana (G3). Sharp four-furlong workout April 13 at Keeneland. Luis Saez will pick up the mount. War Command daughter has a 7-2-1-0 record on turf.

#8 Vergara (4-1) — Noble Mission mare won three back at 1 5/16 miles in a Grade 3 at Kentucky Downs. However, she’s 0-for-2 at 1 1/2 miles and had the early lead before weakening to fifth in the Glens Falls last August. May improve with a rider switch. Flavien Prat is a 20% winner on turf and a 12% winner this meet, and Graham Motion is an 18% winner off layoffs of 90 or more days. Vergara is also ranked second among the field in Brisnet Prime Power.

Race 9: About 7 furlongs, allowance optional claimer, fillies and mares 4yo and up

#10 Braganza (20-1) — Will go for a longshot in the second to last race. Dialed In mare will drop in class off a distant seventh in the one-mile Chilukki (G3) in November, and she’ll cut back to about seven furlongs, a distance from which she owns a 3-for-4 record. The Eddie Kenneally trainee won three back at today’s distance when rallying to get up by a head in an allowance optional claimer at Colonial Downs, and she posted an 89 BRIS figure while beating a next-out stakes winner. Braganza also has a win at today’s distance at Keeneland, and she’ll get the same rider from that win, Luis Saez. Kenneally is a 17% winner off layoffs of more than 90 days, and Braganza has put in sharp recent workouts at Churchill Downs.

#3 Swall (8-1) — Ghostzapper filly was beaten a head last out when rallying late in the Queen S. at Turfway. Will try dirt for the first time, and Phil D’Amato is a 15% winner with the surface switch from all-weather. He’s also an 18% winner third off the layoff and at the allowance level. Joe Talamo will retain the mount and the four-year-old put in a bullet five-furlong workout at Keeneland on April 20.

#5 Royal Spa (9-2) — Violence filly drops in class after facing stakes company in last three. The Rodolphe Brisset trainee last won four back in a six-furlong allowance optional claimer at Churchill with an 89 BRIS figure, and she’ll pick up Flavien Prat, a 29% winner with sprints. Brisset is a 22% winner at the allowance level and a 19% winner with shippers. Solid recent workouts at Keeneland.

#7 Happy Soul (6-1) — Runhappy mare returns off a more than six-month layoff and drops in class after setting the early pace but giving way to finish fifth in the TCA (G2). This early pacesetter has posted triple-digit E1 and E2 Brisnet Speed figures in her last two and will likely get the early lead here. Wesley Ward will remove the blinkers (a 28% winning move for the trainer), and he’s a 24% winner at the allowance level. John Velazquez will retain the mount and is 6-for-11 paired with Ward the last 14 days. Bullet five-furlong workout at Keeneland April 19.

Race 10: 1 3/16 miles (turf), allowance, 3yos

#2 Domingo (3-1) — American Pharoah colt broke his maiden in his fifth career start and second turf try; recorded an 87 BRIS figure, the highest last race speed rating among the field, and will move up in class and return off a nearly two-month layoff. Regular rider Luis Saez will retain the mount. Brendan Walsh is a 26% winner this meet and a 20% winner with horses coming off a maiden win.

#3 Bandwagon (9-2) — Three-year-old won three back at 1 1/8 miles over turf labeled good in a maiden special weight at Santa Anita, then finished seventh in his next two, at a mile and 1 1/8 miles. Phil D’Amato is a 17% winner with shippers and an 18% winner at the allowance level. Colt switches to high-percentage jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. (21% on turf), and he put in a bullet five-furlong workout on April 20.

#8 Catch a Wave (7-2) — Curlin colt won by a head on debut when racing 1 1/16 miles at Tampa Bay Downs and moves up in class for Chad Brown, a 32% winner this meet. Flavien Prat will inherit the mount and wins at a 20% rate on turf. Recorded 76 BRIS figure on debut.

#7 Mikealicious (10-1) — Blame colt posted 81 BRIS figures in his last two racing on the dirt and all-weather, both times at 1 1/16 miles. Finished a two-length fifth in the Rushaway S. last out. Closer makes his first start on the grass and his sire’s progeny win 10% of the time first time on the turf. Mike Maker is a 19% winner this meet and a 16% winner second time on Lasix. Tyler Gaffalione will pick up the mount.