Keeneland expert picks: Pick 5 ticket for Wednesday, April 10, 2024

We kick off a new week of racing at Keeneland with an Early Pick 5 ticket. With a high-percentage chance of rain, we’ve got the toughest challenge of the spring meet so far. 

Let’s search for some winners and stick to the first five races on the card, avoiding any off-the-turf surface changes.

Also, be sure to opt in to the TwinSpires Daily Double Down promo, in which you'll receive a 25% boost on winning Daily Double wagers at Keeneland every Wednesday through Friday in April if you hit two Daily Doubles on a given promotional day. See terms and conditions for further details.

50-cent Pick 5 ticket: 2, 3, 9 with 1, 2, (AE #15) with 4, 7 with 3, (AE #13, AE #14) with 3, 8 = $54 [see below for horses to include if AEs do not draw in]

Race 1: six furlongs, maiden claimer, fillies and mares 3yo and up

#2 Up the Creek (3-1) — Raced on all-weather in last two, but lone dirt start was a half-length second on debut at 6 1/2 furlongs when this Upstart filly had a 1 1/2 length lead entering the stretch but got caught late. Luan Machado will regain the mount and wins at a 19% rate in sprints. Doug Cowans is a 26% winner going from the maiden special weight to the maiden claiming level and a 25% winner off layoffs of 46-90 days.

#3 Blue Eyed Soul (2-1) — Early speed type flashed an 84 Brisnet Speed rating on debut when second in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Keeneland last April. Hit the bench and returned in March at Turfway, where she finished second in a six-furlong maiden claimer on all-weather. Clocked a 77 BRIS figure last out, good for the highest last race speed figure among the field. Trainer Wesley Ward is a 30% winner second off the layoff and second time racing on Lasix. John Velazquez will inherit the mount.

#9 Spiritual Lady (6-1) — 0-for-8 lifetime but the Nyquist filly is dropping down multiple classes for Joe Sharp and cutting back to a sprint distance after racing in a one-mile maiden special weight at Oaklawn. Raced at Keeneland back in the fall on turf and will return to the track after four starts at Oaklawn. Two back, the three-year-old had a small lead in the stretch but was beaten to third by a length over a sloppy track. Sharp is 5-2-1-1 the last 14 days, and he strikes at a 17% rate when dropping down multiple class levels. Tyler Gaffalione will pick up the mount.

#8 Gift Gorgeous (15-1) — Makes second career start for Keith Desormeaux. Runhappy filly was far back in fourth on debut in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden optional claimer on Fair Grounds’ turf. David Cohen retains the mount.

Race 2: 4 1/2 furlongs, maiden special weight, 2yos

A full field of 12 first-time starters, plus three also-eligibles. And in the mud…

#1 Raise the Bar (2-1) — Wesley Ward trainee by Maclean’s Music, who owns a 16% sire win rate with first-time starters. Dam has two winners from three starters, and Ward is a 26% winner at the maiden special weight level, plus he strikes at a 27% rate with debut runners. John Velazquez is aboard. Sire’s got a 21% win rate with his progeny racing in the mud as well.

AE of note #15 Bostontonian (9-5) — Scratched from Saturday’s race, which made way for stablemate Shoot It True to roll to a 7 1/2-length win in a maiden special weight at the same distance. Bullet 3F workout on March 30.

#2 Happyflyer (20-1) — Marcus O’Donnell had a 24-1 maiden winner at Turfway in January. Maybe he can get the job done at Keeneland while pairing up with the same rider, Gavin Ashton. Happyflyer is a Runhappy colt out of a Quality Road mare. Bullet 3F workout on April 4. Sire's progeny boasts a 19% mud win percentage.

#10 Tapirs Valor (4-1) — Tapwrit colt put in a bullet 3F workout at Keeneland April 4. Trainer John Hancock is a 16% winner with horses debuting at the maiden special weight level, and Tyler Gaffalione is named to ride. Outside post could be an issue, though — low win percentage last meet in dirt sprints.

Race 3: six furlongs, allowance, fillies and mares, 3yo and up

#7 Anna’s Wish (9-5) — Dialed In filly was far back in third in the six-furlong Cicada S. last out and drops in class today for George Weaver. Two back, Anna’s Wish raced on Lasix and won by 4 3/4 lengths when wiring a six-furlong allowance optional claimer. She’ll race on Lasix a second time (a winning move 21% of the time for Weaver), and will pick up Tyler Gaffalione. Flashed an 87 BRIS figure two back with a 118 Class Rating. Owns 4-2-1-1 record at the distance. Viable single.

#4 Best Seller (10-1) — Longshot makes her first start for Rodolphe Brisset off a nine-month layoff. The Bodemeister filly had been racing on turf and all-weather in her last three and switches back to dirt. Graduated at Keeneland in October 2022 when wiring a maiden claimer by 11 lengths and recorded an 82 BRIS figure. Brisset is a 19% winner first start with the trainer and a 23% winner off layoffs of 90 or more days. Flavien Prat (33% winner in sprints) is named to ride.

#3 First Hill (7-2) — 2-for-2 since transferring to the barn of James Watkins. Raced on all-weather in both starts, winning by a head two back at today’s distance before romping to an 8 1/4-length victory in a six-furlong claimer at Turfway. John McKee will retain the mount; Watkins is a 20% winner going from all-weather to turf.

#2 Center Stage (6-1) — Gormley mare makes first start off the claim for Jesus Esquivel and switches from all-weather to dirt. Set the pace and had the lead in the stretch before beaten to second by 1 3/4 lengths in a 6 1/2F claimer at Turfway Park back in February. May improve with the shorter distance. However, 0-for-2 on off tracks and far back in both of those starts.

Race 4: 1 1/8 miles, maiden claimer, 3yos and up 

AE #14 Cool Operator (9-2) — If he draws into the field, Bernardini colt is a viable win contender in fourth career start for Danny Gargan. Has raced in the mud in all three starts and will add blinkers the first time, a 22% winning move for Gargan, who also strikes at a 20% rate with shippers. Tyler Gaffalione will pick up the mount. Added distance can help this three-year-old who’s out of an Unbridled’s Song mare.

#3 Curlins Incharge (4-1) — Winless from 14 starts, but nine of those were on turf and four were on all-weather. Made first start with Steve Asmussen last out when racing a mile at Turfway and finished fourth; drops in class today. Asmussen is a 22% winner second off the claim and a 21% winner at the maiden claiming level. Irad Ortiz Jr. inherits the mount.

AE #13 Cashmeup (6-1) — Nyquist gelding is 0-for-5 for his career but was beaten a neck last out in first start since transferring to Linda Rice’s barn. Closer stretches out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time and will pick up Declan Cannon (6-1-0-1 to start the meet). Rice is a 31% winner with horses making their second start with the trainer. Longer distances in the four-year-old’s pedigree. Clocked a career-best 80 BRIS figure at Keeneland three back.

#5 Cause a Ruckus (8-1) — Second start with Wayne Catalano and third start overall for his career. Raced six furlongs last out and will stretch back out to a route. Catalano is a 23% winner going from all-weather to dirt, and Luan Machado (24% winner with routes) retains the mount.

* Chance to stand against morning line favorite, #12 Top of the Street (2-1) — Street Boss colt is 0-for-9 for career, and the average winning distance of the progeny of his sire and damsire is around 6.5 furlongs. Today, the colt stretches out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time. Kenny McPeek is 3-for-8 when dropping down multiple classes and an 18% winner at the maiden claiming level. Brian Hernandez Jr. regains the mount but went 0-for-4 when paired with Top of the Street in his first four career starts.

Race 5: six furlongs, allowance, fillies and mares 4yo and up

#3 Ghostly Night (3-1) — Matt Shirer trainee has two wins from five starts on an off track and won two back in the mud in a six-furlong allowance at Oaklawn. Shirer is a 20% winner with sprints, and Irad Ortiz Jr. will pick up the mount. Bullet 4F workout on April 4 at Churchill. Won at Keeneland four back over a sloppy track for a different trainer. Was claimed out of that race by Shirer.

#8 Protomagic (9-2) — Has raced exclusively on all-weather in last five starts since transferring to Juan Cano’s barn and won four of them. The five-year-old mare failed as the favorite last out when beaten a half-length in a six-furlong allowance optional claimer at Turfway. She’ll drop in class today and retains regular rider Axel Concepcion. Cano is a 16% winner going from all-weather to dirt.

#10 Samarita (8-5) — Dominated by 12 lengths two back in an allowance at Keeneland against a fairly weak group of rivals and under a different rider than the one she’ll get today. Last out, the First Samurai mare finished fourth racing a mile over a sloppy Fair Grounds track. Comes off a four-month layoff for Jose Rodriguez. Bullet 5F workout at Hawthorne on March 24. Emmanuel Giles, who’s a 4% winner in sprints, will ride.