Keeneland selections and analysis for Friday, April 28

It’s closing day at Keeneland, highlighted by the return of War Like Goddess in the Grade 3 Bewitch.

1st Race

#5 Huntleigh (3-1): Congrats filly was fifth in last two, beaten by next-out winners in both, when racing at today’s distance in allowance optional claimers; recorded a pair of 78 Brisnet Speed ratings in the efforts. Will switch to hot jockey Tyler Gaffalione, a 24% winner this meet, and posted a bullet four-furlong workout April 12. Norm Casse is a 29% winner first time claiming and a 20% winner with shippers.

#3 Tituba (4-1): Good Magic filly won at today’s distance two back in $84K maiden special weight at Gulfstream while posting a 71 Brisnet Speed figure, then tried turf at the same distance and came home eighth by 5 1/4 lengths. Will return to dirt off a 47-day layoff for Todd Pletcher, a 31% winner first time claiming and a 20% winner turf to dirt. Irad Ortiz Jr. will stay in the saddle.

#6 Pachanga Loca (7-2): Flashed 81 BRIS figure when dominating a 6 1/2-furlong starter optional claimer at Gulfstream March 9. The Super Saver filly will now try a route distance the first time in her nine-race career. Fausto Gutierrez is an 18% winner with shippers and a 15% winner first time at a route. Walter Rodriguez will pick up the mount and strikes at a 16% rate with routes.

* Will take a stand against morning line favorite #7 Beautiful and Bold (9-5), who is 0-for-3 at today’s distance. The Tonalist three-year-old weakened to finish fourth last out at today’s distance in an allowance optional claimer at Oaklawn April 7. Reylu Gutierrez will inherit the mount.

2nd Race

#2 Beyond Oscar (3-1): By Oscar Performance (21% sire win rate first time turf) out of a dam who has produced seven winners from seven starters, including six turf winners. Luis Saez is up. Two-year-old posted sharp three-furlong workout at Keeneland April 20. Jonathan Thomas is a 20% winner with first-time starters and a 15% winner debut turf.

#1 Bundchen (9-5): First-time starter for Wesley Ward, a 20% winner debut turf. By Gun Runner (5% sire win rate first time turf) out of a Speightstown mare. Joel Rosario is named to ride and is 6-2-2-1 paired with Ward the last 14 days.

#7 Hollywoodboulevard (15-1): Far back in sixth on debut at today’s distance on Keeneland’s main track April 12, but may improve in first turf start. Wayne Catalano is a 23% winner dirt to turf and a 20% winner with horses making their second career start. Florent Geroux will pick up the mount. Filly is by Oscar Performance out of a Quality Road mare.

Also consider for horizontals:

#4 Donate Life (6-1): Munnings filly is out of a War Front mare. Reylu Gutierrez will guide the first-time starter, who posted a pair of bullet four-furlong workouts April 14 and April 21.

#12 American Tsunami (12-1): American Pharoah filly is out of a Big Brown mare. Doug O’Neill is a 13% winner on turf and an 11% winner with first-time starters. Tyler Gaffalione named to ride.

AE of note:

#15 Mombayla (15-1): Filly is by Karakontie (20% sire win rate first time turf) out of an Into Mischief mare. Jason McCutchen is a 17% winner debut turf and a 13% winner with first-time starters. Malcolm Franklin is named to ride. Bullet three-furlong workout April 7.

#16 Chitarra (3-1): Wesley Ward first-time starter with John Velazquez aboard.

3rd Race

#5 Dee Dee B (2-1): Failed as favorite on debut in one-mile maiden claimer at Turfway. Will drop down multiple class levels in second start for Wesley Ward, a 19% winner with horses making second career start. Makes first start in 50 days and will keep Walter Rodriguez in the saddle.

#7 Replenish (8-1): Street Sense filly makes first start off the claim for Saffie Joseph and will try a route for the first time after racing between seven and 7 1/2 furlongs on AW and turf. Returns off a more than three-month layoff and will get Irad Ortiz Jr.

#4 Viewers Discretion (3-1): Posted 77 Brisnet Speed figure — highest last race speed figure among field  — in six-furlong maiden claimer on Turfway’s all-weather March 30. May improve second start off the layoff and with a drop in class. Gerardo Corrales will pick up the mount and strikes at a 15% rate with routes.

4th Race

#1 Flute Master (9-2): Graduated in seventh career start when racing a mile in a maiden claimer at Turfway last out; recorded 80 Brisnet Speed figure with 94 Late Pace rating. Moves up in class for Steve Asmussen, a 24% winner with horses going from AW to dirt and a 20% winner at claiming level. Walter Rodriguez will retain the mount. Rail post winning at a 23% clip.

#2 Malibu Mike (9-5): Son of Malibu Moon drops in class after finishing eighth in a one-mile allowance optional claimer at Turfway. Makes first start in 55 days for Nacho Correas, a 17% winner at the claiming level. Vincent Cheminaud will regain the mount and won and placed in two starts with the colt in the summer of 2022.

#4 Oddsontony (10-1): Tonalist three-year-old will stretch back out to 8 1/2 furlongs after sprinting between six and 7 1/2 in last three. Finished fifth in an allowance at Keeneland April 12 under Brian Hernandez. Kenny McPeek is a 19% winner with horses going short to long, and high percentage jockey Luis Saez will pick up the mount.

#7 Freeze Pop (7-2): Candy Ride gelding makes first start off the claim for Eric Foster. Was fifth last out in a one-mile claimer at Turfway in late January and posted an 82 BRIS figure. Gerardo Corrales will pick up the mount.

5th Race

#3 We The People (4-5): Makes first start for Todd Pletcher off a seven-month layoff. Constitution colt drops in class here after finishing eighth in the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby run at today’s distance. The four-year-old was second two back in the 1 1/8-mile West Virginia Derby (G3) after setting a soft pace and then ceding late. Was fourth in the Belmont (G1) last June after winning the 1 1/8-mile Peter Pan (G3). Has looked sharp in recent workouts. Irad Ortiz Jr. will pick up the mount.

#6 The Reds (8-1): Tonalist five-year-old drops in class after facing graded stakes company. Three back, he was beaten three-quarters of a length when fourth in an allowance optional claimer at Churchill run at 1 1/16 miles. Switches to high percentage jockey Luis Saez, a 26% winner with routes, and recorded a trio of fast workouts this month. Saffie Joseph is a 22% winner at the allowance level and a 23% winner with horses coming off a layoff of 46-90 days. 8-3-2-2 record at today’s distance.

#4 Hero Status (9-2): Comes off a fourth in the Oaklawn Mile (G3) April 1. Will make second start for Robertino Diodoro, a 26% winner with horses making their second start with the trainer and a 21% winner at the allowance level. Jose Ortiz will pick up the mount and has gone 9-2-0-2 this meet.

#2 Business Model (7-2): Candy Ride gelding was last seen finishing a distant fourth in the Challenger (G3) on March 11. Will drop in class and regain rider Tyler Gaffalione, who guided the five-year-old to a win four back at Keeneland in November. Brendan Walsh is a 16% winner with shippers and at the allowance level. Bullet five-furlong workout April 15.

6th Race

#8 Sahlabiya (5-2): Beaten by a next-out winner when finishing second as the favorite in one-mile maiden special weight on Gulfstream’s turf while recording an 88 BRIS figure. Makes second career start for Brendan Walsh and will add blinkers the first time. Tyler Gaffalione will retain the mount and is 3-for-8 paired with Walsh the last 14 days.

#6 Penumbras Maker (6-1): Got up to finish third in 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight April 7 at Keeneland; posted career-best 83 Brisnet Speed rating. Will get a rider switch to Walter Rodriguez, an 18% winner on turf, and Fausto Gutierrez is an 18% winner with routes. Added distance may help the Empire Maker filly.

#12 Tawaret (7-2): Pioneerof the Nile filly came home third on debut at 1 1/8 miles on Gulfstream’s turf. Christophe Clement is a 30% winner with horses racing on turf a second time and a 21% winner with shippers. Joel Rosario will stay in the saddle.

#10 Seldom Seen (8-1): Arrogate filly may improve in first start on turf. Out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare who has produced two winners from five starters, including a turf winner. John Velazquez will inherit the mount. Trainer Jonathan Thomas is a 25% winner with first-time turf starts and a 16% winner with first-time blinkers.

AE of note:

#16 Sri Lanka (9-2): Munnings filly was beaten a neck on debut when racing a mile, then came home fourth by two lengths when stretching out to 8 1/2 furlongs last out. Will race on Lasix a second time for Brendan Walsh, and Tyler Gaffalione will stick with the three-year-old.

7th Race

#2 Dark Vector (6-1): Bolt d’Oro colt prompted the pace in the three path, bid into the far turn but was outfinished to place a length fourth as the favorite when racing a mile and 70 yards. Can improve with cutback in distance. George Weaver is a 21% winner with horses going long to short and with beaten favorites. Luis Saez (24% winner in sprints) will retain the mount. Sharp four-furlong workout April 19.

#3 Castlewarden (5-2): Came home second as the favorite in six-furlong maiden special weight at Fair Grounds March 25. Brad Cox is a 27% winner second career race and a 30% winner with beaten favorites. Florent Geroux will stay in the saddle. Into Mischief colt posted bullet four- and five-furlong workouts at Churchill April 15 and 23.

#8 Ghent Road (15-1): By Good Magic (19% sire win rate with first-time starters) out of a mare with two winners from four starters, including a stakes winner. Paulo Lobo is an 18% winner at maiden special weight level and a 17% winner with first-time starters. Gerardo Corrales (19% winner in sprints) is named to ride. Sharp workouts ahead of debut.

Also consider for horizontals:

#10 Gold Ghost (6-1): Second as the favorite on debut in a six-furlong maiden special weight on Turfway’s all-weather; recorded 83 BRIS figure. Wesley Ward is a 30% winner with beaten favorites and a 19% winner second career race. Bullet five-furlong workout April 22 at Keeneland.

#6 Loyal Company (8-1): Frosted colt came home third in six-furlong maiden special weight on Turfway’s all-weather. Returns off a layoff of 48 days for Brendan Walsh, a 13% winner second career race. Tyler Gaffalione will pick up the mount. Sharp five-furlong workout at Keeneland April 21.

#4 Pilote Comete (8-1): By Munnings (16% sire win rate with first-time starters) out of a mare with one winner from two starters. Makes first start for Ben Colebrook and will be guided by Luan Machado, who earned his first win of the meet in an $80K maiden special weight April 26. Bullet three-furlong workout April 23.

8th Race

#4 War Like Goddess (3-5): The English Channel mare makes her six-year-old debut here after finishing a three-length third in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) against males at Keeneland in November. Two back, she won a Grade 1 at Aqueduct at today’s distance and scored her second consecutive triumph in the Bewitch last April. Joel Rosario (a 13% winner this meet) will retain the mount and went 4-2-1-1 aboard War Like Goddess last season. Bill Mott is a 21% winner with horses coming off layoffs of more than 90 days and an 18% winner in graded stakes. War Like Goddess is 5-for-6 from today’s distance and owns a 13-9-1-2 record on turf.

#5 Personal Best (3-1): Tapit filly came home a half-length second in the Orchid (G3) on April 1 at Gulfstream while recording a 98 Brisnet Speed rating. Two back, she rallied to win by a neck in the La Prevoyante Stakes at the same track and earned a 94 BRIS figure. The four-year-old is 2-1-1-0 from today’s distance and has a 9-3-3-2 record on turf. Regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr. will stay in the saddle. Shug McGaughey is a 38% winner this meet and strikes at a 19% rate second off the layoff.

#6 Sopran Basilea (8-1): Five-year-old will make first start in U.S. for Graham Motion, a 22% winner this meet. Beaten a neck in 1 1/4-mile Group 2 event in Italy last out in late October and may improve with added distance. Motion is a 21% winner with horses coming off a layoff of 90 days or more, and Luis Saez (21% winner this meet) will pick up the mount.

#2 Temple City Terror (9-2): Flashed 101 Late Pace figure when fourth in the Hillsborough (G2) on March 11. Makes second start of the season for Brendan Walsh, a 25% winner this meet, and will regain Jose Ortiz, who won with the Temple City mare two back in the Long Island Stakes (G3). The seven-year-old triumphed at Keeneland in the Dowager (G3) last October.

9th Race

#2 Debate (6-1): Flatter four-year-old won two back in a 7 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill in November, then stretched out to a mile and came home fifth by two lengths at Oaklawn in January. Tom Drury is a 23% winner at the allowance level and a 17% winner with horses coming off a layoff of 90 days or more. John Velazquez (26% winner this meet) will inherit the mount.

#1 A La Carte (4-5): Graduated at second asking in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream March 12. Uncle Mo gelding picks up Irad Ortiz Jr. in first start in 47 days for Bill Mott, a 20% winner with horses coming off a maiden win.

#6 Bourbon Heist (4-1): Practical Joke four-year-old finished second to a next-out winner in 6 1/2-furlong allowance optional claimer on Turfway’s all-weather while recording a 91 Brisnet Speed figure on March 10. Ian Wilkes is a 20% winner with horses switching from AW to dirt and a 12% winner at the allowance level. Yoel Navas will pick up the mount. Sharp works ahead of first start in 49 days.

#4 Overbore (7-2): Speightstown gelding came home second by 2 1/4 lengths in a 5 1/2-furlong allowance at Saratoga last out in August. Returns off a more than eight-month layoff for Wesley Ward, a 24% winner at allowance level and a 29% winner in sprints. Joel Rosario will retain the mount and is 6-2-2-1 paired with Ward the last 14 days.

10th Race

#3 Turf King (2-1): Won on debut at a mile and 70 yards on all-weather Feb. 16. Makes first turf start for Chad Brown off a more than two-month layoff and will keep Tyler Gaffalione in the saddle.

#8 Fearless Soldier (8-1): City of Light colt moves up in class after winning at 7 1/2 furlongs in first turf start. Todd Pletcher is a 25% winner with horses coming off a maiden win and a 24% winner with shippers. Irad Ortiz Jr. will stay in the saddle. Sharp works ahead of first start in 47 days.

#5 More Than Looks (10-1): Won at second asking in a one-mile and 70-yard maiden special taken off the turf at Gulfstream. Moves up in class for Cherie DeVaux, a 21% winner this meet and 15% winner on turf. Joel Rosario will retain the mount.

Also consider:

#11 Wico (7-2): Switched from turf to AW and broke maiden in fifth career start when racing a mile at Turfway under John Velazquez. Will make second start off a layoff while racing on Lasix a second time for Wesley Ward. Velazquez will retain the mount. No Nay Never colt flashed 92 Brisnet Speed rating last out.

#2 Midnight Rising (10-1): Won on debut at today’s distance on Turfway’s all-weather, then stretched out to 1 1/16 miles in the Rushaway Stakes and was outgamed late to finish fourth by 1 1/4 lengths. Makes first start on turf, a winning move for Jordan Blair 23% of the time, and will race on Lasix a second time. Luan Machado will retain the mount.

AE of note:

#13 Spy Novel (20-1): Three-year-old gelding won two back at a mile on turf when making first start off the claim for Saffie Joseph. Faced stakes company last out in 7 1/2-furlong Cutler Bay and finished seventh. Joseph is a 22% winner with horses going short to long and an 18% winner with shippers. Tyler Gaffalione will pick up the mount.