MLB picks: Tigers vs. Twins, Nationals vs. Padres

Washington Nationals starting pitcher Max Scherzer. (Icon Sportswire)

Robert Criscola

July 8th, 2021

We scoured the Thursday MLB slate and came up with our top two plays for the evening!

Leading off is our look at an AL Central showdown between the Detroit Tigers and the Minnesota Twins. Then we’ll move on to an intriguing series finale between the Washington Nationals and the San Diego Padres.

Detroit Tigers (40-47) at Minnesota Twins (35-50), 8:10 p.m. ET

The Tigers should pounce on Twins starter J.A. Happ and cruise to victory as road underdogs on Thursday night.

Happ’s horrendous year has continued into July, as he failed to finish five frames against the Kansas City Royals last Friday, surrendering five earned runs in the process. The Illinois-born southpaw has given up at least one homer in seven straight starts, and 12 overall in that span.

This game may not turn into a home run derby with the Detroit’s relatively power-starved lineup (22nd in homers), but Jeimer Candelario – who homered last night – can help drive in some runs against Happ. He’s batting .364 to begin the month for the Tigers, who are 11-5 in their last 16 overall.

Tarik Skubal counters for Detroit, facing a Minnesota squad that’s dropped seven of it’s last nine contests. The sophomore starter held the Twins to two runs in five innings of work in his lone appearance against them in 2021 on May 7. But looking back at 2020, Skubal has made three additional starts against Minnesota, producing a 3.07 ERA over 14 2/3 innings with a .184 opponent batting average.

Skubal has a 3.71 ERA since the calendar flipped to May, and the Tigers are 6-1 behind him over his last seven starts.

MLB pick: Tigers +120

Washington Nationals (42-43) at San Diego Padres (51-38), 9:10 p.m. ET

It’s debatable whether Yu Darvish (7-3, 2.65 ERA) deserved the honor of being an All-Star over Max Scherzer (7-4, 2.10 ERA) or not, but what’s clear is that both starters are on top of their game, and should match zeroes early in the series finale between the Nationals and the Padres.

Darvish has done some of his best work at home this season, going 5-2 over 11 starts with a 2.12 ERA and .196 opponent batting average. He’s also averaging exactly eight strikeouts per outing at home this year.

Scherzer had a sub-2.00 ERA in both May and June, and began July in similar form with six innings of one-run ball against the Los Angeles Dodgers. He’s fourth in WHIP (0.85) and ninth in strikeouts (127) among qualified pitchers. Scherzer had enjoyed prior success against both Manny Machado (5-for-34) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (0-for-3).

MLB pick: Under