NBA Western Conference Tiers: How all 15 teams stack up

Today we finish what we started on Friday, by ranking the remaining 15 NBA teams in the Western Conference into tiers. If you want to read how the tiers are evaluated or check out how the Eastern Conference rankings shook out, you may do so here.

Now onto the West, starting with the Los Angeles Lakers.

TIER 1. TRUE CONTENDERS - LAKERS, JAZZ

The Los Angeles Lakers pursued an unconventional offseason strategy. Instead of relying on a return to health with a core less than a year removed from a championship, they have torn down the roster around LeBron James and Anthony Davis in order to bring in the polarizing and productive Russell Westbrook.

The fit is an awkward one, but Westbrook will ensure the Lakers don’t find themselves worrying about the Play-In should LeBron or AD once more miss time during the regular season. They then filled out the roster around the new big three with cheap shooting and playmaking on minimum deals. Their top-end talent when healthy is still best in the West, so they’re at the top of the list.

The Utah Jazz, meanwhile, have to like their chances. They have a dominant regular-season formula, and they may have bested the Los Angeles Clippers if not for twin injuries to Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley. With multiple other contenders hit hard by the injury bug, they stand poised to benefit. The addition of Westbrook to the Lakers is also a boon to Utah’s defensive game plan, as the Jazz are now better equipped to defend the Lakers in a possible Western Conference Finals.

TIER 2. DARK HORSE CONTENDERS - SUNS, WARRIORS, CLIPPERS, NUGGETS

It might seem disrespectful to have the Phoenix Suns, coming off an NBA Finals appearance, in Tier 2. They come in a notch above everyone else in this tier, but at full strength, they’re not yet in the same league as the Lakers or the Jazz. Even against a diminished Giannis Antetokounmpo for part of the Finals, they were outclassed. It was only the first year together for the Suns' Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, and Chris Paul trio so there’s room for improvement, but also, there’s need for it. With Paul’s health an ever-present concern entering year 17, the clock is ticking.

The next three teams in the tier are all united by a level of uncertainty due to missing personnel. None of Kawhi Leonard, Jamal Murray, or Klay Thompson will begin the year playing for their squads. It remains to be seen how soon any of them will return, and how much they can provide this year after surgery and rehab. While Klay is likely to return by Christmas, he has missed nearly two years of action and it’s an open question if he can still be the Robin to Steph Curry’s Batman. But the Warriors have accumulated some depth in Klay’s absence, and Jordan Poole has shown signs of promise.

The Clippers' trade for Eric Bledsoe cost them Patrick Beverley, who was key in their victory over the Jazz. Without Beverley, their ability to play five out is seriously diminished. With the usual radio silence over Kawhi’s return to play timetable, it’s anyone’s guess if he’ll miss part, most, or all of this season. If he doesn’t return, the Clippers fall clearly out of this tier. But if Kawhi can make a comeback sooner than expected, they’re right back in contention.

The Denver Nuggets should be a strong regular season performer again on the back of 2021 MVP Nikola Jokic. But as seen in the series against the Suns, without Jamal Murray they are an on-ball creator short of competing with the best of the best. While it may seem a lifetime ago now, the nature of the delayed season and the timing of Murray’s ACL injury makes it highly unlikely he returns to play this season. When he does return to full strength, the Nuggets might be top of Tier 1.

TIER 3. PLAYOFF HOPEFULS - MAVERICKS, TRAILBLAZERS

The Dallas Mavericks turned over their front office and coaching staff, and losing Rick Carlisle in exchange for Jason Kidd has to be treated as nothing short of a disaster. Kidd has shown nothing as a head coach to suggest he is the one to maximize Luka Doncic, and his regressive coaching style left disgruntled locker rooms at his previous stops in Milwaukee and Brooklyn. Doncic is capable of going supernova, but Kristaps Porzingis has never recovered his rim-protecting abilities since his days on the New York Knicks. Without that defensive presence, the Mavericks have no path to contention.

Damian Lillard and the Portland Trail Blazers have been one of the ongoing talking points of the offseason, and not for the reasons you want. Lillard’s name is swirling in trade rumors, and though he has not formally requested a trade, it’s clear that a lot is riding on Portland’s performance this year. Trading for Larry Nance Jr. was a coup for them, but running back mostly the same roster is unlikely to see the Blazers dramatically improve over last year’s result - a complete demolition by a depleted Nuggets team. And though it isn’t on the same level as what the Mavericks did, Terry Stotts was a good, proven coach and this will be Chauncey Billups' first time in the big chair.

TIER 4. PLAY-IN HOPEFULS - PELICANS, GRIZZLIES

The New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies are a curious pairing, as they are pursuing opposing team-building strategies despite being similar enough in overall quality. The Pelicans are clearly feeling the heat from Zion Williamson’s camp, but their foolhardy plan of opening cap space to chase Kyle Lowry got them nowhere. Jonas Valanciunas is a good player, but he’s not the floor spacing center they’re touting him to be. And the Pels are yet another team swapping out a veteran coach for a first-timer in Willie Green. Stan Van Gundy clearly wasn’t a good fit, but David Griffin better hope Green is, as that’s already three coaches in three years for Zion.

The Memphis Grizzlies took an unusual step as a fringe playoff team that deliberately got worse. In an effort to get more draft capital and some reclamation projects, they parted ways with Valanciunas, perhaps their best player last season. While I’m not sure the Grizzlies got great bang for their buck, they’re clearly committed to maximizing the long-term upside of Ja Morant, and that is encouraging. Still, they probably are worse than last season unless Jaren Jackson Jr. takes a major leap.

TIER 5. DEVELOPMENTAL SEASON - SPURS, KINGS, TIMBERWOLVES, ROCKETS, THUNDER

At least a few of these teams don’t want to admit they’re in this tier. While the Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder are more than happy to lean into the tank for another season, the Sacramento Kings and Minnesota Timberwolves are desperate to claw their way into the Play-In Tournament. Barring serious injury to teams in the tiers above it’s just difficult to see a path. The Kings are banking on Davion Mitchell to finally turn the team’s defense around, but that’s a lot of pressure for a rookie. The Wolves with a full year of Chris Finch at the helm and with an improving Anthony Edwards could be interesting, but they’re firmly in "prove it" territory until they can build a defense better than the bottom five. The relentless San Antonio Spurs might still be better than either of them.