NFL Week 17: Falcons vs. Buccaneers odds, preview, and pick

Tampa Bay will try to lock up the top wild-card spot in the NFC this weekend, as the Buccaneers attempt to defeat the Atlanta Falcons for the second time in three weeks.

Falcons will hope to learn from their mistakes

The Falcons have had a rough season, but two weeks ago they nearly pulled off a shocking upset of Tampa Bay as they raced out to a 17-0 halftime lead at home. However, they allowed Tom Brady to lead four touchdown drives after halftime as they fell 31-27. It was yet another collapse—albeit not nearly as heartbreaking—to Tom Brady, as he threw for 390 yards in the game and moved to 7-0 in his career against Atlanta.

The Falcons have blown multiple double-digit fourth quarter leads this season, but this one saw their offense simply unable to move the ball in the second half. After answering Tampa Bay’s touchdown to open the half with a drive of their own, Atlanta would gain just 33 yards the rest of the game over five drives, adding a field goal on one, but losing yardage on two others.

Atlanta’s defense looked to rebound nicely last weekend, as they held Kansas City to just 17 points as a missed field goal in the final seconds was the only thing preventing them from overtime. However, Atlanta scored just 14 points as the offense failed to come away with points on two very promising second-half drives. Both sides of the ball must perform better if the Falcons hope to get a win over Brady in what may well be their final chance to do so.

Bucs can secure NFC East matchup with victory

For Tampa Bay, this game has immense importance because the top wild-card spot in the NFC will play the winner of the East division, by far the worst in football. Winners of three straight games, the Bucs are thriving on offense as some changes have been made to better fit Brady’s style. They have scored 104 total points over the last three weeks, and Brady’s four touchdown passes last week came in just 30 minutes as he sat out the second half. He has also not thrown an interception in any of the last three contests.

WR Mike Evans had his best game of the season last week, torching the Lions for 181 yards and two touchdowns on 10 catches. The addition of Antonio Brown has also helped the turnaround in the offense, recording a touchdown catch in each of the last two games. Along with Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski, there is an embarrassment of receiving weapons at Brady’s disposal.

The Buccaneers' defense continues to dominate the opposition’s ground game, as they held the Lions to just 73 yards rushing on 15 carries—with 18 of those yards coming on one play. They have led the league in rushing defense nearly all year, but their pass defense continues to be an issue. Their job will be made a bit easier with Julio Jones likely not returning, but they will have to contend with Calvin Ridley, whose eight games over the century mark leads the NFL.

Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay injury report

Atlanta is expected to be without the aforementioned Jones, whose hamstring injury has kept him out of the last three games. He did receive an injection last week, but he was held out of practice on Wednesday. Center Alex Mack is still in concussion protocol, but has a good chance of returning. 

As for Tampa Bay, RB Leonard Fournette is questionable with an abdominal injury, but is expected to play as he practiced on Wednesday. Helping matters is the return of RB Ronald Jones to practice on Thursday. He will be looking to play for the first time since Week 14, after suffering a broken finger. CB Carlton Davis is expected to miss the game with a groin injury.

Falcons vs. Buccaneers betting trends

Atlanta has won just once in its last five games, but the Falcons have covered the spread in each of the last two weeks. The total has gone Under in five of their last six games, and in five of their last six road contests.

Tampa Bay has covered the spread in three of its last four games, winning three games outright during that stretch. The total has gone Under in four of the Bucs' last five at home. However, the total has gone Over in each of their last five meetings with Atlanta.

A big part of Tampa Bay’s struggles against the Falcons in the first meeting was the team's inability to run the football. Their 51 yards rushing was one of their lowest totals of the season, and while they only average 94 yards on the ground per game, Jones was becoming a solid weapon on the ground and through the air before his injury. With him back in the fold, and Brady playing his best football of the season, this is a very scary offense.

With how Tampa Bay is clicking at the moment, the Falcons' offense must try to keep up. Their first game against Tampa Bay was the only time in their four-game losing streak that they topped 17 points, but they were lifeless in the final 20 minutes.

The Buccaneers will simply be too much for the Falcons, and Tampa Bay will win a high-scoring affair at home en route to their first playoff game in 13 years.  

Score prediction: Tampa Bay 34, Atlanta 17

NFL picks: Buccaneers -6, Over 49.5