NFL win totals: Bank on Baltimore

NFL regular-season win totals are available, and today we're going to focus on one of the top teams in the AFC. I like the Baltimore Ravens to go over 11.5 wins.

The Ravens are highly motivated

Super Bowl champion Kansas City had a motivational edge entering last season, after it sustained a bitter home playoff loss to New England. Baltimore has a similar chip to build upon, after it dominated the regular season with a 14-2 record, then lost to an inferior Tennessee squad during the AFC Divisional Round.

Baltimore benefits from an outstanding front office, with Ozzie Newsome laying the groundwork for years and Eric DeCosta now filling the general manager role, but last year’s defense lacked bulk. Fast and athletic, the Ravens still performed well statistically (third in yards allowed), but the defense's weakness caught up with them in the postseason, when Derrick Henry gashed them for 195 rushing yards.

Baltimore loaded up in the offseason

Teams won’t be able to push around Baltimore like Tennessee did. The front office came through by trading for 6-foot-8, 300-pound Calais Campbell, a five-time Pro Bowler in Jacksonville and the Pro Football Writers Association 2017 NFL Defensive Player of the Year. It also acquired 6-foot-5, 285-pound Derek Wolfe, a ferocious spark plug who recorded 34 tackles, seven sacks and a forced fumble in 12 games played for Denver last season.

Baltimore's secondary is elite

Along with re-signing defensive linemen Jason Ellis and Jihad Ward, Baltimore applied the franchise tag to top linebacker Matthew Judon. I love second-year linebacker Jaylon Ferguson’s star potential, and Baltimore has the best secondary in the NFL, with starting corners Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters, and stud safety Chuck Clark on the roster, along with Jimmy Smith, Earl Thomas, and Eric Weddle.

They will get more reinforcements through the NFL Draft, with a first-round pick, a pair of second-round selections, and two third-rounders. Baltimore could easily have the top-ranked defense in the AFC next season.

Jackson should continue to improve

Baltimore will look to build on the offensive side, after it led the NFL in points, total yards, rushing yards, and passing touchdowns last year, and the numbers are eligible to keep rising because of Lamar Jackson.

I’ve followed Jackson’s progress since his freshman year at Louisville, and the one characteristic that defines his development is work ethic. No player works harder to hone their craft than Jackson, and with a system built to accentuate his talents, the strong-armed quarterback will keep improving as a passer, while terrorizing defenses with his legs.

The Ravens hit a home run with 2019 first-round pick Marquise Brown, a terrific deep threat and route runner. Justice Hill, an excellent complement to Mark Ingram during the second half of his rookie season, could be really good, and Baltimore will continue to receive great production from the tight end position, despite the loss of Hayden Hurst in free agency, with Mark Andrews (64 catches, 852 yards, and 10 touchdowns) and Nick Boyle the top two targets last season.

The Ravens' schedule is soft

Schedule is the other key ingredient to supporting the win total with Baltimore. The AFC North will be playing two of the worst divisions in football, the NFC East and AFC South. Only three of Baltimore’s eight road opponents made the playoffs last year, and it gets Kansas City at home this fall. The Ravens be highly motivated to return the favor, after they lost at Arrowhead Stadium the past two seasons.

Baltimore will enter this season on an upward trajectory, and I love their chances to go Over the win total.

NFL free pick: Baltimore Over 11.5 wins

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