Presque Isle Downs Selections and Analysis for Tuesday, July 30, 2024

Dick Powell analyzes Tuesday’s Presque Isle Downs card and offers his selections.

Race One:

1st: (4) STARSHIP MACYS – in her three starts this year, she took the lead each time and held on against better competition until she went gate to wire last out at this distance. She drops a notch in class for Mike Pappada, who wins 27% of his first starts after a win.

2nd: (6) SCENIC VIEW – has had three starts this season to get her fit and they all came at different distances. She was an even third going six furlongs last out in fast time for John Fennessy, who wins 13% of the time with his synthetic-track starters.

3rd: (3) LIGHTNING ROUND – drops down a notch in class for Moises Valdez, who shows a flat-bet profit with his claimers.

Race Two:

1st: (2) RICHIES NOBLE GIRL – made up 11 lengths two starts back here at this course and distance, then showed better speed last out. She draws inside for Ed Rojas, who wins 27% both with his claimers and going long.

2nd: (6) READY SHE IS – faded against better company two starts back here, then dropped down to this claiming level and won going away at six furlongs. Katy Cheeks wins 22% going short to long, and Gaddiel Martinez returns in the irons.

3rd: (5) AMPLIO ESQUEMA – turf runner tried Tapeta here last out and was an even third behind a slow pace against better competition.

Race Three:

1st: (3) RUSTY MY BROTHER – was a sharp winner at this course and distance two starts ago, then came back and faded to third. She was claimed by Ed Rojas, who wins 25% in this spot, and he adds blinkers and Martina Rojas in the stirrups.

2nd: (4) FORGOTTEN PEACE – returned off a six-month layoff with a sharp win against better competition, then dropped down to this level and won easily as the odds-on favorite. The horse for the course gets Pablo Morales back aboard, who wins 35% with Tim Girten over the last 60 days.

3rd: (5) HALF BIRTHDAY – was a good second two starts back behind the second choice, and then showed high speed last out.

Race Four:

1st: (5) SPAN OF CONTROL – had started here 10 times before finding the winner’s circle. The gelded son of Into Mischief has won his last two starts. He drops down in class and gets Walber Alencar back aboard.

2nd: (8) BEACH HOLIDAY – raced wide two starts back here, then rallied wide from post 8 to get up to third. Another gelded son of Into Mischief, he drops down in class for Carol Skawinski, who wins 13% with her synthetic-track starters.

3rd: (7) AESTHETICALLY – was an even third two starts back and then made a strong middle move last out before weakening.

Race Five:

1st: (6) CLOUD IN THE WIND – was the beaten favorite two starts back before she chased a fast pace and rallied wide to just miss. Tim Girten wins 38% of his first starts after being beaten as the favorite.

2nd: (3) MITOLE MAGIC – broke her maiden at Turfway Park, then came back here two months later and raced evenly. She ran the same race last out and drops down to $25,000 claimers for Chris Davis, who wins 20% of the time with his claimers overall.

3rd: (5) DROWNINGNCHOCOLATE – broke her maiden in her PID debut two starts back and showed speed last out.

Race Six:

1st: (9) GUACO – horse for the course showed good speed here in his first start in eight months, then came back with a close second in his first start off the claim. He has run well against this level before and gets Rosario Montanez back.

2nd: (2) SAMURAI LEGACY – horse for the course should be fit from his recent efforts. He could not hang on going 110 yards longer but draws inside today in a shorter race. Dave Markgraf wins 18% with his claimers and 16% on synthetic tracks.

3rd: (5) WROTE IN STONE – showed high speed last out against better competition for Walber Alencar, who wins 38% of the time with John Fennessy over the last 60 days.

Race Seven:

1st: (6) TAP THE SKY – beat strong claimers two races in a row before moving to this allowance level and was an even third. Going nine furlongs, he should be forwardly placed and hard to catch if he can control things.

2nd: (7) FRED GEORGE – broke his maiden in his second Tapeta start here and then was a good second against these at this level. He was second last out as the odds-on favorite for Kevin Rice, who wins 22% of his first starts after being beaten as the favorite.

3rd: (5) EPIC KNIGHT – did little on the dirt two starts back before being a good second here.

Race Eight:

1st: (6) HAIG POINT – he was second two starts in a row at Turfway Park, then shipped here four months later and missed by a neck. Tim Girten wins 38% of his first starts after being beaten as the favorite and 25% of his second starts off a layoff.

2nd: (1) JO JO HANS – dropped down to this claiming level and rallied for third from a wide post. He draws the rail and gets blinkers added for Ron Potts, who wins 20% with his synthetic-track starters.

3rd: (4) SIR TERRE – didn’t run poorly in his first start off the claim by Katy Cheeks last out.