Racing Roundtable: 2024 Breeders' Cup takeaways [Video]

This week, the Racing Roundtable reflects on the 2024 Breeders' Cup, with takeaways on the Classic (G1), Juvenile (G1), and Juvenile Fillies (G1), plus other reactions to the two-day event at Del Mar.

What were your takeaways from the Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies?

James Scully: Citizen Bull took advantage of a stumbling start from 9-5 favorite East Avenue, who was expected to show speed from the innermost post, but I still came away impressed Citizen Bull’s performance. After dictating terms on a moderate pace, the Bob Baffert trainee faced a serious bid from a more fancied stablemate, Gaming, who had tracked in second. Citizen Bull dismissed his challenger with a sharp turn of foot, powering his way clear by about a couple of lengths in upper stretch, and the Into Mischief colt rolled home as much the best.

And the Juvenile came back fast, with Citizen Bull earning a 107 Brisnet Speed rating after completing 1 1/16 miles in 1:43.07, more than a second faster than Immersive’s final time in the Juvenile Fillies.

Immersive comfortably proved best as the 2-1 favorite, scoring by nearly five lengths from just off the pace, and I like the tactical speed the Nyquist filly has displayed winning the Alcibiades (G1) and Juvenile Fillies. But she appeared to be in trouble when coming under a ride on the far turn and none of her rivals finishing with interest. I am not sure about the quality of the two-year-old filly division so far.

Vance Hanson: The Juvenile was disappointing in the sense that it was a falsely run race. The stumbling favorite East Avenue was unlikely to get involved at any rate, given the fact he didn't look comfortable getting dirt kicked in his face, but capable colts like Chancer McPatrick, Jonathan's Way, and Ferocious really had no opportunity to get involved. This is not to say Citizen Bull or Gaming aren't worthy colts in their own right, and perhaps they will prove to be better overall than the ones they beat in the Juvenile. I'm just taking the full result of the race with a grain of salt.

The Juvenile Fillies turned into a runaway for Immersive, the most accomplished runner going in. She's deservedly the champion of the crop this year, but the division very much lacked depth. I suspect it will become more interesting and competitive over the winter and into next spring, when Immersive's dominance might not be so acute.

Ashley Anderson: Godolphin is building a strong contingent for the Kentucky Oaks (G1), with Immersive currently at the top of the Oaks leaderboard (40 points) following her 4 1/2-length romp in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. The daughter of Nyquist is now 4-for-4 with a trio of Grade 1 victories for trainer Brad Cox and clocked a career-best 99 Brisnet Speed figure in her latest effort while earning a 123 Class rating. While she's the one to beat early on, her stablemate Good Cheer, also a Godolphin homebred, just won a week earlier in the Rags to Riches and boasts a 3-for-3 record with a combined win margin of 30 lengths. Both fillies are ones to watch early next year, and either could be a big chance at Churchill Downs on May 2.

As for Citizen Bull, he improved his career mark to 4-3-0-1 and has posted back-to-back triple-digit BRIS figures, with his Juvenile triumph his best, with a 107 Speed rating. The Bob Baffert runner is by Into Mischief, who has already sired Kentucky Derby (G1) winners Authentic and Mandaloun, and Citizen Bull is now a two-time Grade 1 winner, with both victories coming at 1 1/16 miles. With East Avenue stumbling badly at the start, that took out one of his top competitors in the Juvenile, and Chancer McPatrick failed to factor as well, but I still rate Citizen Bull's win impressive and he has the pedigree to succeed at classic distances next year as a three-year-old.

What was your reaction to the Classic?

JS: The Classic came down to three-year-olds, and based upon fractional times in the day’s final three dirt races (Classic, Sprint, and Dirt Mile), the main track appeared to speed up significantly later in the afternoon. I thought the middle and outside paths were best, with horses stuck down inside at a possible disadvantage.

Connections hoped Sierra Leone would peak this spring/summer, but the late runner appears to be discovering his best form presently, proving best by 1 1/2 lengths. And he did so after losing ground every step of the way from an outside post, rallying ridiculously wide past rivals on the far turn to strike the front by upper stretch. 

But the outside journey wasn’t a disadvantage given how Del Mar’s main track played in two-turn races, Sierra Leone may have been up against it if he had to work out a trip from posts 1-3. It was easy to appreciate his professionalism, running straight through the stretch for the first time, and I expect the colt to race closer in future engagements. Connections said Sierra Leone will be back next year, and he figures to be formidable at age four for Chad Brown.

Fierceness proved game to the wire after chasing a hot pace (:22.43, :44.96, and 1:09.44), and the Travers (G1) winner has turned in consecutive massive efforts at 1 1/4 miles. Classy frontrunning types often win on hot paces — it’s not how fast you’re going, but how you’re doing it — and Fierceness was doing it easy during the early stages, settling into a cruising rhythm about a length behind the pacesetter and clear of third. He wound up being outfinished by a rival who received a perfect setup, but Fierceness lost nothing in defeat. 

Forever Young got the worst of it from his rail draw. He had to check early on the far turn, was asked upon leaving the backstretch to avoid losing position while buried in a claustrophobic spot down along the rail, and didn’t receive a fair chance to run until being angled outside for the final eighth of a mile, gaining rapidly on the top two before running out of room on the wire. I thought the inside draw/trip cost Forever Young a viable chance of winning.

VH: Sierra Leone finally ran the race many people predicted he would have run more frequently all season, but to me, the performance of the race was turned in by Fierceness, who was never more than a length off that wickedly fast pace (:22.43, :44.96, 1:09.44) and wound up losing by only 1 1/4 lengths.

City of Troy proved not up to the task of handling American dirt racing but didn't lose much as far as credibility, and you can't take away what he did in Europe this year. On the other hand, the Classic showed what dire straits the older male division is presently in. Take away the brilliance of Flightline, and this division hasn't been moving the needle much at all over the past half-decade.

AA: Sierra Leone finally got the job done after finishing in the money in his three prior tries at 1 1/4 miles, including a nose second in the 2023 Kentucky Derby. With a fast pace to run into, he closed late and kept straight in the stretch to win by 1 1/2 lengths with a career-high 114 BRIS figure. He showed improvement in his final run of the season and should continue to mature during his four-year-old campaign. Runner-up Fierceness also ran well, breaking from an outside post but yielded late to finish second-best. Newgate was the best of the older horses but seemed to tire in the stretch, and Forever Young had the tough task of overcoming his rail draw but finished strongly in third. The one letdown for some backers was City of Troy, but I personally was not high on the Justify colt and wanted the Aidan O'Brien trainee to prove it to me on dirt. He did not take well to the Del Mar main track and was far back from the start. Based on the results of the Classic, I think Fierceness still deserves consideration for the three-year-old male division, but Sierra Leone will likely overtake him for top honors with his second Grade 1 victory of the season and placings in all other starts.

What else stood out to you from the other Breeders' Cup races? 

JS: Inside posts being preferable in turf routes at Del Mar on Breeders’ Cup programs is comparable to the falsehood of Pimlico having tighter turns than Churchill Downs. If it comes down to equal ability, horses drawn outside have an advantage.

From five turf routes Saturday, horses drawn in post 10 and beyond (handicapping races/making selections prior to late scratches) won four races. Horses drawn to the outside accounted for a total of six wins in turf routes over Friday-Saturday; posts 1-3 managed only one win. 

The turf played the same in the 2017 and 2021 editions of the Breeders’ Cup. Horses with the tactical ability to make their own trip or late runners who simply outclass their rivals like odds-on Lake Victoria in Friday’s Juvenile Fillies Turf may be able to overcome an inside draw, but it’s not common.

The evidence reveals outside posts to be preferable in turf routes on Breeders’ Cup weekend at Del Mar. 

VH: A standout performance for me was that turned in by Lake Victoria in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, who justified 7-10 favoritism in a fashion much easier than the official 1 1/2-length win margin would suggest. It was her third consecutive Grade/Group 1 following prior scores in the Moyglare Stud and Cheveley Park, and she's undoubtedly the filly to fear going into Guineas season next spring. It's also worth noting she ran a fifth of a second faster than stablemate Henri Matisse did in the Juvenile Turf.

I'm still shocked at Cogburn's performance in the Turf Sprint. Granted, he broke poorly, but his form did not suggest he would have been the kind to fold the way he did, especially after separating himself from the field the way he did. It was a sour end to what had been a tremendous run of performances the past couple of seasons.

AA: Argentine-bred Full Serrano scored John Sadler his third Breeders' Cup win, this time in the Dirt Mile (G1). The five-year-old was making his third start for Sadler's barn since shipping to the U.S. and pressed the early pace before kicking clear to win by 1 1/2 lengths over late-surging Post Time. Full Serrano won his U.S. debut at Del Mar in a one-mile allowance optional claimer, then jumped up to Grade 1 company in the Pacific Classic (G1) and led from the start until he was caught late to finish a half-length second to Mixto at 1 1/4 miles. Sadler originally wanted to enter Full Serrano in the California Crown (G1), with the potential of a subsequent start in the Classic, but a fever kept him out. That resulted in the cutback to a mile, which worked out well for connections, but bettors once again overlooked the five-year-old at 13-1 odds. Sadler may point next toward the Pegasus World Cup or look to overseas racing in Saudi Arabia and Dubai with his ever-improving colt.

Another former Sadler pupil impressed on Saturday as well, with Hope Road winning the Bayaoka (G3) on the Breeders' Cup undercard. The Quality Road three-year-old made her first three career starts with Sadler but transferred over to Bob Baffert and has now won four straight. Baffert has worked Hope Road up the ladder, entering her in a maiden special weight at Santa Anita on June 15, when she dominated by 5 1/2 lengths. She then secured another five-length win in an allowance optional claimer at Del Mar before stretching out to a route in the Torrey Pines (G3) and sitting second behind the early leader, then drawing away to win by five lengths. Connections are supposedly hoping to enter her in a Breeders' Cup race next year, and she should be a strong contender at age four, especially with the Breeders' Cup returning to Del Mar — where she's 3-for-3.

Where were you right or wrong on your Breeders' Cup picks/wagers? 

JS: My best opinions came on the second half of the Breeders' Cup Saturday program, selecting Moira and Straight No Chaser on top and using Full Serrano and Rebel's Romance prominently in all multi-race wagers, but didn't leverage those opinions properly with my wagers. I need a better game plan next year. 

VH: I felt many of the top selections were overpriced on the morning line, but I did not expect so many of them to actually go off favored. One I was particularly disappointed in was Cinderella's Dream, whose position buried on the inside behind runners for much of the final three furlongs likely cost her the win in the Filly & Mare Turf.

Quite a few of my plays turned out to be underlays. Two examples were City of Troy and Notable Speech, both of whom I had lukewarm feelings about. Second choice More Than Looks would have been a more clever recommendation, especially after my comments about him following the Coolmore Turf Mile (G1).

AA: Friday was a better day for me, as I hit the Late Pick 4 while successfully standing against three morning-line favorites — East Avenue in the Juvenile, Scottish Lassie in the Juvenile Fillies, and New Century in the Juvenile Turf. The following day in the Early Pick 4, I was knocked out in leg three by 20-1 longshot Soul of an Angel, who rallied late to best my top pick, Society, by a half-length. While most of the public overlooked the Saffie Joseph trainee, in hindsight I was kicking myself for not respecting her previous form and her 112 Late Pace rating, which she earned in her Princess Rooney (G3) victory at Gulfstream. I instead included Vahva in my ticket thinking I had late speed covered with that choice.

However, even if I had included Soul of an Angel, it would have mattered little, as I never would have pegged Starlust as a winner of the Turf Sprint, the final leg of the Early Pick 4. I played with and against Cogburn in a pair of tickets, but Starlust was never on my radar. The European invader was 2-for-9 on the season, and his pair of victories came over soft turf, leaving me to underestimate his abilities at Del Mar.