Racing Roundtable: Barnes' big showing in San Vicente, Kentucky Derby prep talk

This week, the Racing Roundtable examines the performance of Barnes in the San Vicente (G2), the results of two Kentucky Derby (G1) prep races — the Jerome S. and Smarty Jones S. — and what else caught their eye from the weekend.

What were your thoughts on the San Vicente (G2)?

Vance Hanson: Although jockey Juan Hernandez reportedly told trainer Bob Baffert after the San Vicente that Barnes was still a little green, Barnes certainly looked a lot more mature and professional than he did in his debut at Churchill Downs in late November. So much so one can understand why he brought $3.2 million as a yearling.

Broadly speaking, though, it's still hard to judge Barnes' Kentucky Derby potential off this race. It's one Baffert has dominated for years, including four one-two finishes in the last five years. Unless Barnes stays home to run in the San Felipe (G2), which might descend into another intramural battle, he could get his first two-turn test in a race like the Risen Star (G2) or the Rebel (G2). I think his performance in one of those would tell us a lot more about his place in the pecking order not only within the Baffert stable but on the trail in general.

To sum up, Barnes is undoubtedly one to watch but a Derby underlay for the time being.

Ashley Anderson: Barnes looked much more professional in his second career start, a 5 1/2-length victory over four rivals in the seven-furlong San Vicente. Following a debut win at Churchill Downs in which the $3.2 million yearling purchase prevailed by a head, overcoming an extremely green stretch run, the Bob Baffert trainee appeared much more focused from start to finish and likely excited his Kentucky Derby Future Wager backers who bet him down to individual favoritism in Pool 2 over Thanksgiving weekend. 

The Into Mischief colt earned a 94 Brisnet Speed figure and a 121 Class Rating in the San Vicente, improving upon his 88 BRIS figure and 117 Class Rating on debut. The trip to the winner's circle also handed Baffert his 14th win and third consecutive in the Grade 2 Santa Anita fixture, while it was the third straight year he achieved the exacta in the race. Barnes' stablemate Romanesque, a 2 1/4-length debut winner at Del Mar, came home second to Barnes by 5 1/2 lengths. Rider Juan Hernandez Jr. also collected his fourth straight victory in the San Vicente on a day he recorded five wins, two runner-up finishes, and a third on Santa Anita's 10-race card. After the San Vicente, Hernandez told Baffert that Barnes was still a "little green," which leaves one to wonder what his full potential may look like after Saturday's dominant triumph. Baffert has compared Barnes to his former Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, which may not be all too surprising considering Barnes' dam is by the 2015 Horse of the Year.

What did you take away from the Jerome and Smarty Jones S.?

VH: I saw no immediate Kentucky Derby ramifications from either the Jerome (which was a better race when it used to be run in September during the Belmont fall meet) or the Smarty Jones.

Cyclone State, the Iowa-bred winner of the Jerome, clearly relishes the one-turn mile at Aqueduct, as this was his third win in a row over the track and distance. And like his other two scores, he was pretty much left to dictate matters on his own terms, this time over a slow-playing track. The Saudi Derby and the Gotham (G3), both over a mile, are short-term options for Cyclone State, and I question how far he really wants to go, given his style of running.

Coal Battle is a feel-good Derby story for journeyman trainer Lonnie Briley. The colt has now won two straight Derby preps (he also landed the Springboard Mile last month) and remains undefeated on dirt with a 4-for-4 record. However, like Cyclone State, he benefited from setting a soft pace before opening up late. Coal Battle figures to get a much stronger test next time in the Rebel, a much stronger indicator of Derby success than the Smarty Jones.

AA: In their young history as Kentucky prep races, neither the Jerome nor the Smarty Jones has produced a Kentucky Derby winner, and that will likely continue to be the case in 2025. If I were to pick a runner more likely to succeed the first Saturday in May, I would hand the edge to Coal Battle, who displayed versatility in his four-length, gate-to-wire Smarty Jones coup, which notched him a third straight stakes score and his fourth victory from six career starts, all at different racetracks. In his two previous starts, Coal Battle rallied from off the pace to win the two-turn, 6 1/2-furlong Jean Lafitte S. at Delta Downs and the Springboard Mile at Remington Park. His only career losses have come on turf, when he was a six-length fourth in the Juvenile Mile S. at Kentucky Downs and a 5 3/4-length seventh in a one-mile allowance on Keeneland's turf. Coal Battle did post a light 82 Brisnet Speed figure in the Smarty Jones, a 1 1/16-mile test that lacked much speed. His Springboard Mile victory was arguably more impressive, as he posted a career-best 92 BRIS figure while also earning a 118 Class Rating.

In the Jerome, Cyclone State achieved a career-best 93 BRIS figure when beating six rivals, but morning-line favorite McAfee was not among them, as he scratched due to a leg infection. The McKinzie three-year-old also won his third straight start, all three in gate-to-wire fashion racing a one-turn mile at Aqueduct. His final time for the Jerome was 1:40.82 over a fast track. It was Cyclone State's seventh start in six months, and trainer Chad Summers indicated he will not race the colt again until the end of February or early March. The one-turn-mile Saudi Derby is a potential target, followed by the U.A.E Derby in Dubai.

What else caught your eye from the weekend?

VH: The seventh race at Fair Grounds on Saturday was an unremarkable open maiden event for older horses going 1 1/16 miles, but the third choice in the field of six, Orizzonte, made a remarkable recovery to win after blowing the start.

A four-year-old by Union Rags, Orizzonte had run fourth in both previous starts sprinting in restricted auction maidens, and on Saturday was making his two-turn debut for trainer Paul McGee. Orizzonte hopped at the start and was last by nine lengths after a quarter mile. He got little help pace-wise from El Magnifico, who was making his ninth start, but Orizzonte's relative talent and upside was just enough of an edge for him to get up in time by a nose.

As noted, Orizzonte is likely destined for an unremarkable career, but kudos to him and his connections for snaring victory from the jaws of defeat.

One race earlier, a three-year-old maiden filly named Rather Distinct broke poorly due to interference in a 1 1/16-maiden turf event. Like Orizzonte, she lagged far behind most of the way, but in her case, she could only manage fourth after her rough journey. However, she was only beaten 1 1/2 lengths and is a horse to think about next time she reappears for trainer Eddie Kenneally.

AA: While Barnes was Baffert's most high-profile runner on Saturday at Santa Anita, the trainer also scored three other victories on the card with Richi, Mirahmadi, and Rodriguez. The latter was making his second career start and broke his maiden in impressive fashion, as he romped to a seven-length, gate-to-wire win at a mile. His final time for eight furlongs was 1:35.91, putting him on the radar as another Kentucky Derby candidate in Baffert's barn. Rodriguez, a son of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Authentic, came home second on debut to Romanesque in a 6 1/2-furlong sprint at Del Mar on Nov. 23 and excelled with the added ground on Saturday. Rodriguez had worked with Barnes on Dec. 29 and Baffert noted he was in Barnes' face the whole time. He also pointed out that Authentic was a late bloomer, so Rodriguez may follow suit.

Authentic's sire, Into Mischief, is the same sire as Barnes and Mirahmadi, who put it all together on Saturday to record a 4 1/2-length frontrunning win in an allowance, but his final time for a mile (1:36.15) was slower than Rodriguez's earlier on the card. The four-year-old defeated odds-on favorite Eagles Flight, a half-brother to Flightline who was coming off a long layoff.

Aside from Barnes, Rodriguez, and Mirahmadi, Baffert got a win with Richi and a runner-up with Pleasant in the Las Flores (G3). Baffert's four-win day was his most successful in terms of win count since he won four races at Los Alamitos in September 2023.