Racing Roundtable: Breeders' Cup post-position draw, buy or sell morning-line favorites

This week, the Racing Roundtable does a deep dive into the Breeders' Cup post-position draw, the morning-line favorites in five key races — including the $7 million Classic (G1) — and they look ahead to specific races and runners they plan to wager on at Del Mar for the World Championships on Nov. 1 and 2.

Were there any winners or losers of the Breeders' Cup post-position draw?

James Scully: Post 14 may not seem ideal for Next in the Classic, but outside posts did not prove to be a serious hindrance in two previous editions of the Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar. In 2017 (14 Breeders’ Cup races), posts 12-14 produced a pair of winners (Caledonia Road and Rushing Fall) and four second-place finishes. Mendelssohn, who put his tactical ability to good use with an up-close trip as the favorite in the Juvenile Turf, was the lone winner to break from posts 1-3.

More of the same in 2021, with outside posts holding their own. The Distaff exacta came back 10-11 and Turf superfecta paid on 10-8-12-14. Corniche won the Juvenile from post 11.

My biggest concern surrounds horses who will need to work out a trip from inside posts in a bulky field. As far as serious contenders, Forever Young (6-1 morning line in the Classic) and Ramatuelle (5-1 in the Mile) received the worst of the post draw, in my estimation.

Vance Hanson: Several of the expected heaviest favorites for Breeders' Cup weekend are extremely well drawn: Lake Victoria (Juvenile Fillies Turf), Cogburn (Turf Sprint), and Thorpedo Anna (Distaff). In general, though, I'd be most concerned with outside draws in the three turf races run over a mile. 

Though there have been only two previous Breeders' Cups held at Del Mar, and thus the sample size is small, inside posts in two-turn events over the grass have been preferred. Horses who could be negatively affected include New Century, the morning-line favorite in the Juvenile Turf, and perhaps U.S. contenders Johannes and Carl Spackler in the Mile.

Ashley Anderson: I am not one to necessarily read too much into post position, but there are a few key trends I noted from previous Breeders' Cup races, particularly at Del Mar in 2017 and 2021. For one, post 5 has been most successful at Del Mar, with four winners drawing the post in 2017 and three more in 2021, including Knicks Go in the Classic, although he technically broke from gate 4. In the history of the Classic, you also have to go back to Ghostzapper in 2004 to find a starter who won the 1 1/4-mile race from the rail. That may spell trouble for much-hyped Classic runner Forever Young, a 6-1 choice in the Nov. 2 fixture.

Another trend to note: In the 16-year history of the Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1), eight winners drew post 8 or higher. That includes last year's winner Hard to Justify, who broke from post 12, and 2022 winner Meditate, who drew post 10. The 2024 Juvenile Fillies Turf 8-5 morning-line favorite #1 Lake Victoria drew the rail, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. In 2021, Pizza Bianca won from the same spot.

Moreover, in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), gates 4-7 have won seven of the last 10 runnings, and outside posts have won the other three. Morning-line favorite East Avenue will break from post 1 and is an early pacesetter type. He's also got speed right to his inside. I prefer the chances of #10 Chancer McPatrick (3-1) on the outside but also like #7 Gaming (8-1), a son of Juvenile winner Game Winner, at a price.

Do you buy or sell the morning-line favorite in each of these races: the Classic, Turf (G1), Mile (G1), Sprint (G1), and Juvenile (G1)?

JS: Classic: City of Troy and Fierceness will be 1-2 in the betting, and I’m not willing to completely sell either. My top choice may come elsewhere, but City of Troy and Fierceness will be on my multi-race wagers.

Turf: Not keen to support Rebel’s Romance at a short price in straight pools, I won’t let him beat me in any horizontal wagers.

Mile: Sell Notable Speech; the European contingent isn’t as formidable this year. I’ve got American-based horses 1-2-3 in the Mile.

Sprint: No race on the Breeders’ Cup program is more “what have you done lately” than the Sprint, and I will include Federal Judge in wagers following a 5 1/2-length romp that netted him a 107 Brisnet Speed rating.

Juvenile: East Avenue is a buy — my top selection in the Juvenile. 

VH: Having already come out more or less in favor of fading East Avenue in the Juvenile, I will stand by that assessment for the reasons previously given. Federal Judge is also a fade in the Sprint as I've previously endorsed Mullikin on multiple occasions.

City of Troy is my top selection in the Classic, but that doesn't mean I think he'd be a good wager at his present price. If, for some reason, his price floats up on Saturday whereby he's second choice, then it would be worth re-evaluating. 

Despite the contentious nature of the Mile, Notable Speech at 7-2 seems like a fair price, given what he's accomplished on his best form, and anything higher would obviously be worth taking in my estimation. Rebel's Romance would also be a buy for me at 5-2 in a relatively weak renewal of the Turf.

AA: Breeders' Cup Classic: Sell City of Troy. The Justify colt is too short a price for a first-time starter on the dirt on one of the biggest stages. Aidan O'Brien is still searching for his first Classic win, and I would rather make City of Troy prove to me he can win on dirt than back him at this short of a price in the Classic.

Breeders' Cup Turf: Buy Rebel's Romance. The Dubawi gelding is already a winner in the 2022 edition of the Turf and has been on a tear during his six-year-old season, recording a 5-4-0-1 record, with his lone loss a third to longshot Goliath in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth II (G1) at Ascot in July. Charlie Appleby has won two of the last three runnings of the Turf, and Rebel's Romance will be a tough one to beat with a 9-for-12 record at 1 1/2 miles on the turf.

Breeders' Cup Mile: Sell Notable Speech (7-2). Appleby has won the last three editions of the Breeders' Cup Mile, all with William Buick, and will go for a fourth win with the morning-line favorite, but the 2024 running is extremely competitive, and I will try to beat the Group 1 winner. His top winning mile time came two back at Goodwood, and it's more than three seconds slower than Johannes' winning time in the City of Hope Mile (G2) last out at Santa Anita. I much prefer the California runner, especially at odds of 9-2, and will play him along with a couple other longer-priced runners in horizontal wagers.

Breeders' Cup Sprint: Sell Federal Judge (3-1). I respect his chances coming off his dominant win in the six-furlong Phoenix (G2) at Keeneland, but I was hoping for a better price. He'll have a lot of speed to contend with, and I'll include him in horizontals but look for value when making win wagers and playing exotics.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile: Sell East Avenue (5-2). Only two favorites have crossed the wire first in the Juvenile dating back to 2014, and no runner from an inside post has won in the last 10 runnings. East Avenue will also have speed right to his inside, and I think he's a vulnerable favorite here for Brendan Walsh, who is looking for his first Juvenile victory.

Which race or runner are you most looking forward to watching and/or wagering?

JS: The international participation makes the Classic a compelling race, easily the most anticipated edition over the last 20 years that I can remember. I lack the same conviction from a betting standpoint, but the Classic is the one race I want to watch as a fan.

I’m intrigued to see how the pace scenario shakes out in the Sprint, at least three of the top contenders possess serious speed.

As far as wagering, the Mile ranks at the top of the list. I’m taking a stand with Carl Spackler and Johannes against the contingent of six international runners.

VH: The Classic is intriguing for the obvious reasons, but for me the Mile is the most fascinating race of the weekend from a sporting and betting perspective. We have strong European representation, some longer shots from Japan, and several quality U.S. performers. Another positive is that the field is only 12, rather than a full field of 14, which might help slightly reduce the chances of poor trips and/or hard-luck stories.

AA: I am most looking forward to seeing Awesome Result in the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1). With Adare Manor and Idiomatic both retired ahead of the Breeders' Cup, the Distaff has lost some luster and seemingly has set up even more favorably for potential Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna. However, Awesome Result, a Justify filly who's unbeaten from seven starts, could be the real deal from Japan. She's coming off a five-length win at 1 1/4 miles, and she won her first three starts all at the Distaff distance of 1 1/8 miles. Japan won the Distaff in 2021 at Del Mar with massive upsetter Marche Lorraine, and it could get a second win here with a filly who is way less under the radar ahead of her clash with Thorpedo Anna.