Racing Roundtable: Disco Time scores in Lecomte, two Kentucky Oaks contenders emerge

This week, the Racing Roundtable rates Disco Time's Grade 3 Lecomte victory as well as the performances of both Kentucky Oaks (G1) prep winners from the weekend at Fair Grounds and Aqueduct.

What were your thoughts on the Lecomte (G3)?

James Scully: A frontrunning winner in his first two starts, Disco Time dropped well off the pace and overcame a ridiculously wide trip to prevail by a neck in the Lecomte. It’s easy to appreciate the resolve he displayed over the sloppy track, but Disco Time did not run fast, netting an 88 Brisnet Speed rating. That’s four points lower than the figure from his one-turn allowance win in late November and won’t get it done against better competition this spring.

The dark bay colt remains eligible to keep developing for Brad Cox, but Disco Time hails from a speed-oriented female family and it’s fair to question whether any Lecomte runners will play a significant factor in major events this spring. Built, who had everything his own way winning December’s Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds, enjoyed a better trip and struck the front in deep stretch, but he had no excuses giving way to the winner. And his Speed rating came back six points lower. Innovator, who held for third after setting the pace, does not appear geared toward two-turn distances at this stage in his career. After sprinting clear in the opening quarter-mile, Innovator ran his next half-mile in :52.18, and the six-furlong maiden winner coughed up a three-length lead in the final eighth of a mile after establishing a slow pace. 

Vance Hanson: It was not a compelling edition of the Lecomte, which has a modest history of being impactful on the Kentucky Derby. Although the sloppy surface was producing slow times all day, Disco Time required 1:47 and change to finish 1 1 1/16 miles. That was slower than first-time starter Hypnus needed to win a maiden earlier in the card, and it was significantly slower than the two stakes for older horses.

This group is capable of doing better, and will in time, but it's not the kind of slow race you want to see at this stage on the Derby trail. Built might be the horse to take away from this race, given he had run much faster in winning the Gun Runner S. and appeared not to be handling the wet surface on Saturday very well. Despite that, he still only lost by a neck in the final strides.

Ashley Anderson: Disco Time remained unbeaten in his third career start, although his Brisnet Speed figure came back lighter than his one-mile win at Churchill in November, which earned him a career-best 92 Speed rating. On Saturday, the Not This Time colt, who previously had sat close to the early pace in his first two career victories, began far back in 10th while breaking from an outside post and had to launch a wide rally to get up by a quarter-length over a sloppy track in his first try at two turns. His final time of 1:47.07 was one of the slowest Lecomte times in recent history. Disco Time's BRIS figure also came back an 88, just one point higher than his 87 on debut when racing seven furlongs over a fast Churchill track. Trainer Brad Cox acted unfazed by Disco Time's final time and said he believes the three-year-old will continue to improve throughout the winter and into the spring, and that he'll get better with longer distances.

As for Built, the runner-up and runaway winner of the Gun Runner S. in December, jockey Jareth Loveberry noted the colt did not handle the off track well and was pleased with his effort and trip despite unfavorable conditions. Third-place finisher Innovator was stretching out to a route for the first time and led through the stretch before getting collared late. Rider Jaime Torres said the son of Authentic failed to contain his energy but doesn't think distance will be a problem if the horse can learn to relax more at the beginning of the race.

Who do you rate a stronger Oaks contender — Simply Joking or Running Away?

JS: I will give the edge to Running Away, who showed her affinity for longer distances and remained unbeaten on dirt winning the 1 1/8-mile Busanda in her stakes debut. After making her first two starts on turf, Running Away switched to the main track with a five-length romp over maiden special weight rivals at Churchill Downs. The speedy filly has now two straight dirt starts on the front end, drawing off to a 2 1/4-length decision in the Busanda, and Running Away may have more to offer for Wesley Ward.

Kudos to Simply Joking, who won her debut over stakes rivals at six furlongs and came back four weeks later to capture the Silverbulletday at a mile and 70 yards, but her two main rivals on paper, Chasten and Golden Gamble, were never a serious factor finishing outside the top three and Simply Joking dictated tempo as the lone speed. The promising Whit Beckman trainee still has something to prove at longer distances, but there's a lot to like about her first two outings.

VH: A tough question to answer, given both races were paceless affairs and the two winners dictated terms throughout. Perhaps you'd have to give a slight edge to Running Away right now as she has that experience over the Churchill Downs strip and has a bit more pedigree to get nine furlongs (which she now has) effectively being by Gun Runner.

But Simply Joking has come a long way in a short time, winning a pair of stakes in a span of a month, and trainer Whit Beckman is a trainer we're going to be hearing a lot more of in the years to come.

AA: Admittedly, I tried to play against Silverbulletday winner Simply Joking, who was making her second career start and first at a route on Saturday, but looked fairly professional in her gate-to-wire victory going a mile and 70 yards. By Practical Joke, her pedigree on top may suggest she's best as a sprinter or miler but there is plenty of stamina on her dam's side. Simply Joking's damsire E Dubai won the Suburban (G2) at 1 1/4 miles and placed in the Travers (G1) and Super Derby (G1), while Simply Joking's dam Imply recorded victories mainly on turf and all-weather, but she succeeded at 1 1/16 miles. 

While Simply Joking may prove capable at 1 1/8 miles, I will give the slight edge to Wesley Ward trainee Running Away, who went gate to wire at the Kentucky Oaks distance of 1 1/8 miles when winning the Busanda at Aqueduct in 1:52.23. Running Away faced a slightly tougher field in the Busanda compared to Simply Joking in the Silverbulletday, and she earned a 117 Class Rating for the effort with an 88 BRIS figure. Simply Joking's Speed rating did come back a career-best 96 in the Silverbulletday but she earned a 116 Class Rating while facing a field rated a 114. 

My one concern with Running Away is whether she's a need-the-lead type. So far, she's set the early pace in all four career starts, with her two losses coming on turf when caught late. Running Away is by Gun Runner and out of an Unbridled's Song mare who mostly raced seven furlongs during a short career in Brazil. Ward said after the race that the weather had compromised Running Away's training in Kentucky and that she wasn't "cranked as much as [he'd] like." Nonetheless, she prevailed by 2 1/4 lengths in her first try at nine furlongs and is now tied atop the Kentucky Oaks leaderboard with Simply Joking and Godolphin homebred Good Cheer. Running Away also turned in a dominant five-length win in her first start on dirt in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Churchill on the "Stars of Tomorrow II" card Nov. 30. Even more in her favor, Running Away's dam Allez Marie is out of 2005 Kentucky Oaks winner Summerly.

What else caught your eye from the weekend?

JS: In the lone open maiden special weight for three-year-olds, Hypnus came out running at first asking for Kenny McPeek, rallying to win going away by 2 1/2 lengths, and the regally-bred colt completed the 1 1/16-mile distance in 1:46.33, more than half-second faster than Disco Time (1:47.07) in the Lecomte.

Out of the Grade 1-winning Dream Tree, a daughter of Uncle Mo, Hypnus will jump straight into a Kentucky Derby qualifier for his next start, with McPeek mentioning the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds on Feb. 15 and the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park a week later as options.

"He’s never been outmatched in the morning – and in the afternoon either, I guess. It wasn’t a big surprise to me,” McPeek said.

Hypnus is another exciting prospect for Into Mischief, who has sired a pair of Kentucky Derby winners and was represented by six of the 39 individual interests in Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager last weekend, including four of the top six individuals in Barnes (6-1), Patch Adams (12-1), Citizen Bull (17-1), and Sovereignty (21-1).

VH: In advance of his appearance in next weekend's Southwest (G3), Patch Adams was well backed in Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager over the weekend. While I endorsed a pre-emptive backing of him in a blog last week at TwinSpires, I did not expect that amount of support. Perhaps 12-1 will look like a bargain if he wins the Southwest impressively enough, but I myself couldn't quite bite at that price. Meanwhile, Gaming was a little cooler in Pool 3 in advance of his expected start in the Southwest, going off at 38-1.

Bettors remain lukewarm toward Citizen Bull, who is expected to be named champion juvenile colt Thursday night at the Eclipse Awards. He was the third individual choice at 16-1 in Pool 2 and the 17-1 fourth individual choice in Pool 3. Citizen Bull hasn't been driving the Derby discussion this winter like most recent two-year-old champions, but he shouldn't be entirely dismissed either, given his accomplishments last season.

AA: A couple of jockeys had standout performances at Fair Grounds on Saturday, starting with Joel Rosario aboard Stir Crazy, who won the off-the-turf Marie Krantz Memorial by 5 3/4 lengths. The seven-year-old mare was coming off a victory in the Blushing K. D. S. on Fair Grounds' turf course in December and extended her stakes win streak to two on Saturday via a cunning ride by Rosario. Picking up the mount for the first time on the Mike Maker trainee, Rosario had to overcome a slow start by Stir Crazy, who then got squeezed between horses and was near the back of the pack into the clubhouse turn and down the backstretch. But Rosario saved ground around the second turn as Stir Crazy closed on the leaders. Then the 2013 Kentucky Derby-winning rider saw a hole between two of the outside horses but astutely predicted the gap would close too soon and steered toward the rail, where Stir Crazy shot through the gap and inched away in the final furlong before drawing off.

Aside from Rosario's impressive ride, world-class rider Frankie Dettori celebrated his first victory at Fair Grounds on his first-ever mount at the New Orleans track. In an off-the-turf rendition of the 5 1/2-furlong Duncan F. Kenner S., Dettori guided Kavod to a stalking five-length victory. The 3.90-1 fourth choice in the field has now bankrolled $908,753 from 39 lifetime starts.

Lastly, Florent Geroux and Brad Cox continued to make for a winning combo at Fair Grounds, as Geroux visited the winner's circle aboard both Disco Time and Hit Show. The latter was coming off a disappointing four-length third under a different rider when sent off as the post-time favorite in the Clark (G2) last November at Churchill but regained Geroux on Saturday and rallied to win by 1 1/2 lengths in the 1 1/16-mile Louisiana (G3). Geroux has now won five of his six recent mounts on Hit Show, including three straight in the West Virginia Governor's S. (G3), Lukas Classic (G2), and Fayette S. (G2) last season. Geroux is winning at a 30% clip overall at Fair Grounds this meet and a 31% rate paired with Cox over the last two months.