Racing Roundtable: Fierceness and City of Troy head-to-head in Breeders' Cup Classic

This week, the Racing Roundtable debates Breeders' Cup chances for Fierceness and City of Troy, plus Thorpedo Anna in the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1), and the sprint divisions.

Who is your Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) head-to-head prop choice: Fierceness or City of Troy?

James Scully: Fierceness is the right answer; he exits a signature win in the Travers (G1) at the Classic distance. City of Troy promises to offer more value in his first dirt start but he’s got to get the right trip, and the surface switch rates as a legitimate concern. When analyzing possible international challengers for the Classic (G1), I prefer the dirt experience of Japanese hopefuls Forever Young and Derma Sotogake over City of Troy.

It’s interesting to note that Fierceness has been drawn widest of all in his last two wins, and he broke from post 8 in the Florida Derby (G1). From eight career starts, he’s never broken inside post 6.

Vance Hanson: From a value perspective, I'd take City of Troy in that hypothetical prop as he arguably represents Team Coolmore's best shot in a Breeders' Cup Classic since Giant's Causeway narrowly went down to defeat to Tiznow in 2000. Not only does he have the sufficient class of a Giant's Causeway, but like that star of the past, he has plenty of dirt in his pedigree as a son of Triple Crown winner Justify.

One knock against Fierceness throughout his career is that he's taken advantage of a lot of favorable scenarios and has had trouble overcoming adversity. The Travers was surely one of his best performances, yet he didn't really have much in the way of adversity. The pace was less contested and slower than what might have been expected on paper, and John Velazquez had him placed in an ideal stalking position. 

It appeared the final yards of that 10th furlong were also getting to him, suggesting it probably isn't the distance he is going to best excel at. There are no qualms about that in regards to City of Troy. 

Ashley Anderson: The Travers (G1) proved when Fierceness runs his race, he is the best three-year-old in the country. However, I am still skeptical on the City of Light colt in the Breeders' Cup Classic, as he's shown inconsistency overall for his career. Saturday's win represented the first time Fierceness has been able to string together back-to-back victories, and an argument could be made that he also has an affinity for Saratoga, which may have helped his cause in the Travers. The Todd Pletcher pupil broke his maiden on debut by more than 11 lengths at the Spa, and he won his other two starts at Saratoga — the Jim Dandy and Travers.

While he may have turned a corner, I am hesitant to trust Fierceness can win three straight while shipping to the West Coast off his Saratoga victories. 

On the other hand, City of Troy is 6-for-7 lifetime, and his frontrunning score in record time in the Juddmonte International (G1) has me feeling more bullish about him ahead of the Classic. A son of Justify, City of Troy has the pedigree to relish the dirt, and 18-time Breeders' Cup winner Aidan O'Brien has had the Classic circled for City of Troy for a while. I would love to see Fierceness get the job done in the Classic, but at the moment I lean City of Troy in a head-to-head battle.

What are your thoughts on the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) picture?

JS: After being relatively unchallenged in her first four starts this year, Thorpedo Anna responded with a 107 Brisnet Speed rating in the Travers (G1). That number towers over Distaff (G1) prospects.

In the Travers, Fierceness gained an early tactical advantage over Thorpedo Anna, who surrendered the lead after breaking on top and was stuck down on the rail behind a wall of horses through moderate opening fractions. She was forced to swing four-wide nearing the conclusion of the far turn, and Fierceness got the jump on her by accelerating into a clear lead while straightening for home.

Thorpedo Anna nearly erased a sizable deficit in the final sixteenth of a mile but came up a head short in a noble effort. Winning Horse of the Year is still on the table and given her best race came at 1 1/4 miles, the Classic remains a viable option for Thorpedo Anna. If the three-time Grade 1 winner does opt to face males in the Breeders’ Cup, Personal Ensign (G1) winner Raging Sea becomes a serious win candidate.

She’ll have to deal with Adare Manor from the West Coast, but Raging Sea appears to be peaking at the right time for Chad Brown. The four-year-old filly gamely wore down reigning champion older dirt female Idiomatic in the stretch Friday, recording her fifth win from the last six starts — and initial Grade 1 tally — and the improving late runner has posted back-to-back career-best Brisnet Speed ratings.

VH: Although she's endured less-than-ideal trips for much of the season, I'd be looking to fade Idiomatic in her title defense of the Distaff. 

From the start of the season in the La Troienne (G1), she hasn't looked nearly as dominant as she was a year ago. This isn't to say to her likely main rivals don't have their own potential weaknesses. Adare Manor has not been consistently battle-tested racing primarily at her base, Randomized is not as effective unless she gets a comfortable lead, and Raging Sea just barely got up to win the Ogden Phipps as the beneficiary of a favorable pace scenario. Idiomatic perhaps remains the best older filly and mare, but her odds figure to be very short again at Del Mar and has obviously proved quite beatable this year.

That leaves us with the only legitimate three-year-old candidate for the Distaff, in my opinion. Thorpedo Anna would be favored today in the Distaff off her Travers performance. 

The one thing I would say about her is that I'm disappointed she will be making her next start in the Cotillion (G1), rather than the Spinster (G1). I get the purse discrepancy between the two and the additional time between the Cotillion and the Breeders' Cup, but Thorpedo Anna is deserving of a shot in a more challenging spot with far more prestige.

AA: With a narrow miss in the Travers against males, Thorpedo Anna once again demonstrated she is the best three-year-old filly in the country — and arguably the best sophomore in the country regardless of gender. 

She'll be the one to beat in the Distaff should she run, but I give California-based Adare Manor a chance as well. The Uncle Mo mare turned a corner with her 5 1/2-length Apple Blossom H. (G1) win at Oaklawn in April, then went gate to wire in the Santa Margarita (G2) two back before winning the Clement Hirsch (G1) from off the pace. She'll face the boys in the Pacific Classic (G1) this Saturday, and her performance there will tell us more about her stamina and class.

Raging Sea also impressed in the Personal Ensign (G1) on Friday, with a career-best 102 Brisnet Speed figure in her head victory over last year's Distaff winner Idiomatic. The closer has stepped forward in her four-year-old season, but I still give the edge to Thorpedo Anna — or Adare Manor, should the three-year-old filly point elsewhere on Breeders' Cup weekend.

Do you have any leanings on the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) and/or Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) after the weekend?

JS: Domestic Product missed the track record by 1.31 seconds in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1), turning seven furlongs faster than Forego (G1) hero Mullikin and Ballerina (G1) winner Society. His tactical ability has really sharpened since cutting back to one-turn distances two starts back, registering triple digit Brisnet E2 and Late Pace numbers as well as career-best 103 Speed rating Saturday. His development has been impressive, but Domestic Product may stick to one-turn middle distances instead of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) or two-turn Dirt Mile (G1) at Del Mar this fall.

Making only her second start since finishing third in the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), Society established herself as a major player for the 2024 edition by recording a dominant score in the Ballerina. And after recording five previous stakes wins in a one-dimensional manner, Society showed a new dimension kindly rating in second before powering to the front, easily scoring by 3 1/4 lengths. She appears to have a lot going for her in terms of the Filly & Mare Sprint.

Kudos to Mullikin, who moved to 4-for-4 this season with a 5 3/4-length Forego victory and promises to bring dangerous speed to the Sprint. The complexion of the race changed when 3-1 second choice Cagliostro stumbled badly out of the starting gate and Baby Yoda came up flat for the second consecutive race, but I won’t take anything away from Mullikin. He’s really come on at age four for Rodolphe Brisset.

VH: I think Mullikin is the "now" horse for the Breeders' Cup Sprint following his win in the Forego. Although it wasn't a vintage field or renewal of the race, he won it stylishly and is now undefeated in four starts this year. Another thing I like about him possibly cutting back to six furlongs is that this ostensible seven-furlong specialist is sure to have more stamina than other speedier types, and that race has a long history of favoring horses who showed the ability to stretch their speed farther.

Vahva perhaps was due for a form correction in the Ballerina after a nondazzling score in the Chicago (G3) over Society, who hadn't had the benefit of a run. Trainer Cherie DeVaux said Vahva might not be that fond of Saratoga, and she is perhaps right about that as the filly is 0-for-3 at the Spa. At any rate, Vahva's likely odds in the Filly and Mare Sprint just went up, so she'll offer a bit more value now vis-a-vis Sweet Azteca, who took a path of least resistance contesting the Rancho Bernardo on Sunday against an overmatched field.

AA: The Filly & Mare Sprint is a bit more wide-open at the moment, and my primary takeaway from the weekend focused on the Breeders' Cup Sprint. 

With The Chosen Vron breaking his six-win streak with a neck defeat in the Pat O'Brien (G2), he created some doubt ahead of the Breeders' Cup Sprint, where he finished fifth last season at Santa Anita. The Chosen Vron has dominated on the California circuit but will face new competition at Del Mar in November. Mullikin ran away with the seven-furlong Forego (G1) on Saturday and can succeed on the cutback to six furlongs, but who caught my eye the most were Prince of Monaco and Domestic Product in the Allen Jerkens (G1). 

Coming off 7 1/2-length romp in the Dwyer (G3), Domestic Product cut back to seven furlongs for the Allen Jerkens and closed late to beat Prince of Monaco by a quarter length. Neither Chad Brown nor Bob Baffert have confirmed which Breeders' Cup race Domestic Product or Prince of Monaco will respectively point toward, but both are good chances in the Sprint. Prince of Monaco, in particular, appears a looming threat to The Chosen Vron, having won his first three career starts at sprint distances, including the Best Pal (G3) and Del Mar Futurity (G1) both at the site of this year's Breeders' Cup.

What else caught your eye from the weekend?

JS: Senza Parole looks like a two-year-old filly with a bright future, debuting in Friday’s opener at Saratoga with a spectacular victory over six furlongs. After settling up-close, the Chad Brown trainee humbled foes in the stretch, scoring by a widening 7 3/4 lengths, and the chestnut earned a commendable 98 Brisnet Speed rating and stopped the teletimer in 1:09.84. By Gun Runner and out of a Street Cry mare, Senza Parole’s pedigree is favorable for longer distances.

And I will mention the wire-to-wire performance from Far Bridge in the 1 1/2-mile Sword Dancer (G1). The distance represented a major challenge, but it proved not to be an issue after Far Bridge was allowed to coast through an opening six furlongs in 1:17.21, essentially turning the race in a six-furlong sprint to the wire. Silver Knott appeared to be the probable pacesetter entering the race, and his presence figured to provide odds-on stablemate Measured Time with a legitimate setup, but Flavien Prat’s decision to rate Silver Knott behind Far Bridge proved to be a puzzler.

VH: Although last Wednesday's Acomb (G3) at York was a Breeders' Cup Challenge prep for the Juvenile Turf (G1), The Lion in Winter appears too good a prospect for the Coolmore team to send to America this fall. 

A son of Sea the Stars, The Lion in Winter has so far defied expectations in winning both starts to date. Wayne Lordan, rather than first-call rider Ryan Moore, was aboard The Lion in Winter when he won his debut by more than two lengths at the Curragh on July 20. And as the 2-1 second choice in the Acomb, The Lion in Winter won handsomely, this time with Moore up. Although not held in the same regard as City of Troy was at this time a year ago, The Lion in Winter looks a very strong prospect for the 2000 Guineas (G1) and Derby (G1) at Epsom.

AA: While we almost saw a filly beat the boys in the Travers, another three-year-old female got the job done against males at Woodbine on Friday, when Caitlinhergrtness triumphed in the King's Plate, the first leg of the Canadian Triple Crown. 

The Kevin Attard pupil earned her trainer a second Plate win after Attard succeeded in 2022 with Moira, who set a stakes record under rider Rafael Hernandez. The same jockey was aboard Caitlinhergrtness, who got up late in the stretch to beat the post-time favorite, My Boy Prince, by three-quarters of a length. The filly also earned sire Omaha Beach one of three stakes victories over the weekend. He also had a winner with filly Landed in the Fleet Indian S. on Sunday and EJ Won the Cup in the St. Louis Derby on Saturday.