Racing Roundtable: Fountain of Youth, Gotham, and San Felipe takeaways

This week, the Racing Roundtable discusses the results of three Kentucky Derby (G1) prep races — the Fountain of Youth (G2), San Felipe (G2), and Gotham (G3) — plus Kentucky Oaks (G1) prep winners, and what else caught their eye from the weekend.

Who impressed you the most from the three Kentucky Derby (G1) prep races?

James Scully: Sovereignty came back strong off a four-month layoff, and Flood Zone stepped up to stakes competition with a sharp win, but I was most impressed by Journalism, who reeled in odds-on Barnes and won the San Felipe (G2) going away by 1 3/4 lengths.

A convincing winner of the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) in mid-December, Journalism earned his first triple-digit Brisnet Speed rating (104), as well as a whopping 113 Late Pace number, taking the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe, and the Michael McCarthy-trained Curlin colt appears well-suited for longer distances this spring.

Vance Hanson: The easy answer would be Journalism with his powerful performance in the San Felipe, but being the contrarian, I found a lot to like about Sovereignty's late rally in the Fountain of Youth. He very much could have been found short in his first start since late October and didn't have the easiest of tasks making up five lengths in little more than a quarter mile with a short piece of stretch to work with. But that very late burst to snatch victory from River Thames was striking, as much a sign of intelligence as talent as he seemed to time that rally with clockwork precision.

The Fountain of Youth was not nearly as fast a race as the San Felipe, so Sovereignty has to get better, which I believe he will. He does have the advantage of having won over the Churchill surface before, and given Gulfstream's decision last week to increase the run-up distance in their two-turn dirt races, the Fountain of Youth probably played more like a nine-furlong race than one at 1 1/16 miles. That, to some degree, helped a long-winded type like Sovereignty.

Ashley Anderson: Journalism impressed me most in the San Felipe (G2) despite facing a small field in the 1 1/16-mile event. However, three of his four rivals hailed from the barn of Bob Baffert, including much-hyped Barnes, the 0.40-1 post-time favorite, and Rodriguez, an Authentic three-year-old who garnered Kentucky Derby buzz following his Jan. 4 maiden win. 

As expected in the San Felipe, Barnes went to the front, setting early fractions of 23.71 and 47.31. He showed the way into the final furlong, but Journalism got a head in front with a sixteenth remaining and drove clear to win by 1 3/4 lengths. The Michael McCarthy pupil added 37.5 points toward the Kentucky Derby leaderboard, as the allotted first-place points of 50 were lowered due to a scratch-reduced field of five.

Journalism crossed the wire in 1:42.24 and recorded a career-best 104 Brisnet Speed figure, one of the highest speed figures by a three-year-old so far this year. That number came back better than Sovereignty's 99 earlier in the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth (G2). Journalism is now 3-for-3 since stretching out to a route, and his lone loss came on debut when a late-running third in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita in October. McCarthy had suggested Journalism was not completely cranked for his first start since his Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) victory, but he got the job done nonetheless and will likely point next toward the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 5.

Which Oaks prep winner is a major contender?

JS: I’ll focus on Drexel Hill, who overcame a bad start to win the Busher at Aqueduct. Ben Curtis said his mount wasn’t handling the track in the opening stages, but late-running Drexel Hill began to gain momentum on the far turn and closed determinedly through the stretch to prevail by three-quarters of a length. 

Third in the Silverbulletday two back, Drexel Hill doesn’t rate as a serious contender for the Kentucky Oaks (G1) yet; her Speed ratings are still too low. But she figures to appreciate more ground than the one-turn mile of the Busher, and Drexel Hill is a candidate to keep progressing for Whit Beckman off the confidence-building win.

VH: I don't mind saying none of the above. Neither Drexel Hill nor Maysam are as good as their stablemates right now, and The Queens M G still has the look of a one-turn specialist to me. I think the fillies to keep an eye on from this weekend are the Davona Dale second and third La Cara and Ballerina d'Oro, both of whom appeared to be using the race more as a means to an end. La Cara was cutting back from a two-turn trip in the Suncoast S. while in need of a race between it and the Ashland (G1) at Keeneland. Ballerina d'Oro, making her start since finishing a belated second in the Demoiselle (G2) three months ago, was cutting back a full furlong and surely is building up to peak down the road. She also endured a trip that was highly unusual for her, showing a lot more tactical foot than she ever has in her second start with blinkers.

AA: Based on speed figures from her recent win and pedigree, I give Maysam the upper hand over Busher S. victress Drexel Hill and Davona Dale (G2) heroine The Queens M G. On Sunday at Santa Anita, Bob Baffert trainee Maysam went gate to wire and held off a game Supa Speed to prevail by a nose in the 1 1/16-mile Oaks prep that lost some luster when Maysam's stablemate Cipriana scratched, along with another rival, Hey Jessie. Challenging just three sophomore fillies in Maysam's third career start, the daughter of Game Winner sprinted clear and crossed over to the inside, showed the way up the backstretch and met a bid from Supa Speed at the seven-sixteenths pole, dueled into the stretch and held to the wire. For the effort, she recorded a career-best 99 BRIS figure with a 117 Class Rating and improved to 2-for-3 lifetime. Maysam dominated by six lengths on debut in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight but flattened to finish far back in sixth in a one-mile stakes at Sunland Park in February. She bounced back on Sunday, stretching out to 8 1/2 furlongs for the first time, and could be a contender on the Kentucky Oaks trail. Whether she's the caliber of Kentucky Oaks candidates Good Cheer for Godolphin and stablemate Tenma is yet to be determined, but her handling of the 1 1/16-mile distance on Sunday left hope for the future.

Drexel Hill's closing kick in the one-mile Busher was noteworthy, but her Speed figure came back lighter than Maysam's at 89, and Drexel Hill is likely the third best Oaks contender in Whit Beckman's barn behind stablemates Her Laugh and Simply Joking.

What else caught your eye from the weekend?

JS: Unraced since July, Just a Touch came back in a big way Saturday, registering a 104 Brisnet Speed rating for a 10 1/2-length romp over allowance rivals at Fair Grounds. The runner-up in last year’s Blue Grass (G1) and Gotham (G3), Just a Touch owns good tactical ability and will try to make a serious impact in the older dirt male division for Brad Cox.

Disruptor will jump straight to a major Kentucky Derby qualifier for Mike Repole and Todd Pletcher after impressively breaking his maiden at Gulfstream Saturday, drawing off to a 9 1/4-length decision over seven furlongs. By Gun Runner, the $1.15 million yearling graduated stylishly at second asking.

Mi Bago left a good impression winning Saturday’s Colonel Liam S., dominating throughout in the one-mile turf affair for three-year-olds, and the Vekoma colt has now recorded three turf stakes wins and a Tapeta stakes triumph for Mark Casse. The Colonel Liam was his best to date, a tour-de-force performance on the front end.

VH: Not only did Todd Pletcher have an excellent day on Saturday with major wins from coast to coast, but his protégé Michael McCarthy cleaned up the remaining graded stakes at Santa Anita, all with non-favorites. In addition to saddling Journalism, the McCarthy-trained Formidable Man bounced back from a lackluster finish in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) to win the Frank E. Kilroe Mile (G1) with a late rail bid. And the graded action got started when Liguria, who was making only her second start since joining the McCarthy barn, captured the Buena Vista (G2) for her first stakes win since June 2023.

Although McCarthy has been out on his own for a decade, the last four or five seasons have shown him gradually becoming one of the sport's elite trainers with top-level stock, despite not having the numbers that the Pletchers, Bafferts, Asmussens, Browns, and Coxes have. City of Light, Ce Ce, and Preakness (G1) winner Rombauer are just a few he's gotten the best out of, and now Journalism affords him a great chance to reach the pinnacle at the Kentucky Derby.

AA: Todd Pletcher enjoyed a successful weekend, particularly with two of his four-year-olds, Mindframe and Locked. The former made his season debut in the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) following a nearly eight-month layoff since his second in the Haskell (G1). The Constitution colt confronted seven rivals on Saturday at Gulfstream and proved worthy as the 0.80-1 post-time favorite, as he held safe for a 1 1/4-length triumph and earned a 98 BRIS figure with a 121 Class Rating. After the win, Pletcher indicated races like the Alysheba (G2) in May or the Stephen Foster (G1) in June at Churchill Downs could be in Mindframe's future.

Pletcher again celebrated later that day at Santa Anita with four-year-old Locked, who ran away with the 1 1/4-mile Santa Anita H. (G1) with an 8 1/2-length romp over seven rivals, including runner-up Express Train and third-place finisher Hit Show. The Gun Runner son rebounded off his second to White Abarrio in the 1 1/8-mile Pegasus World Cup (G1) and handled the added distance with ease. Locked secured a career-best 106 BRIS figure and a 124 Class Rating while setting a record for margin of victory in the 90-year history of the race. The Whitney (G1) at Saratoga is a summer goal, according to Pletcher. Another four-year-old in his barn, Fierceness, is also expected to return to the work tab this week and may appear next at Aqueduct in May, giving Pletcher three potential top candidates for the older dirt male division in 2025.