Racing Roundtable: Highland Falls punches ticket to Breeders' Cup Classic and other WAYI results

This week, the Racing Roundtable grades the victory of Highland Falls in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), plus other Breeders' Cup Win and You're In challenge series events that took place over the weekend.

How do you rate Highland Falls' chances in the Classic after his Jockey Club Gold Cup win?

James Scully: Not favorably. Arthur’s Ride didn’t show the same speed from the gate as in the Whitney (G1), allowing Highland Falls to switch tactics and contest the pace in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1). After catching a breather through a second quarter-mile in :24.42, Highland Falls had plenty in reserve for the stretch, driving to a four-length decision. The four-year-old colt appears to favor the 1 1/4-mile distance, but he won’t receive the same favorable trip in the Classic against deeper competition.

The Jockey Club Gold Cup and Sunday’s Pacific Classic (G1) both appeared to come up light in terms of quality over the weekend.

Vance Hanson: Highland Falls perhaps was born to win a Breeders' Cup race — his sire won the Classic and his dam the Distaff — but it seems he and the rest of what constitutes the older male division on dirt are going to need a massive step forward to topple many of the better three-year-olds pointing for the race.

Highland Falls' victory in the Gold Cup was to an extent a tactical success. Arthur's Ride was the fastest horse on paper, literally and figuratively, but it was smart for the connections of Highland Falls to pressure him into submission. The pace dynamics at Del Mar figure to be different, and thus Highland Falls will presumably be among a glut of runners hoping to rally from midpack or off the pace. Two months out, I have doubts whether he is fast enough.

Ashley Anderson: A switch to more aggressive tactics proved beneficial for Highland Falls, as he pushed recent Whitney (G1) winner Arthur's Ride early in the Jockey Club Gold Cup before taking over past the mile marker and kicking clear to win by four lengths in 2:03.25. The Curlin colt achieved his second victory in three recent starts and tied a career-best Brisnet Speed figure with a 101 in the JCGC.

While some of his potential Breeders' Cup Classic rivals are more accomplished at the moment and have recorded higher speed figures — namely Fierceness, who posted a 105 in the Jim Dandy (G2) and a 107 in the Travers (G1) — Highland Falls must be respected in the Breeders' Cup Classic field. His tactical ability combined with his pedigree make him a dangerous foe. He's by two-time JCGC winner Curlin, who won the 2007 Breeders' Cup Classic, and he's out of Awesome Again mare Round Pound, winner of the 2006 Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1). Awesome Again likewise reached the winner's circle at the Breeders' Cup in the 1998 edition of the Classic.

Right now I rate Fierceness and City of Troy as better chances ahead of the Classic, and last Saturday's surprise Pacific Classic (G1) winner Mixto clocked a final time of 2:02.10 racing the same 1 1/4-mile distance as the JCGC. However, I expect Highland Falls to be competitive at Del Mar, and his best effort could make him an unsuspecting winner in November.

What were your takeaways from the other Breeders' Cup prep action this weekend?

JS: After dropping his first two starts this year, Motorious rebounded while returning to Del Mar’s turf in Saturday’s Green Flash (G3). He captured the five-furlong turf sprint for the second consecutive year, improving to 3-for-3 over the course, all coming at the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) distance this fall, and the six-year-old gelding will look to make amends for a troubled fifth as the favorite in last year’s Turf Sprint at Santa Anita. 

Motorious likes Del Mar’s turf better, offering a bold late run to get up Saturday, and the Phil D’Amato trainee will look to major late impact when returning from a freshening in the Nov. 2 Turf Sprint.

VH: I don't think many of the other Breeders' Cup Challenge races held over the weekend will have much impact. The Pacific Classic was one of the weakest renewals in race history and won by a horse still eligible for an entry-level allowance. If not for the fact Del Mar is firmly in the Breeders' Cup site rotation, the Del Mar H. arguably wouldn't even be a "Win and You're In" for the Turf, given its grade and relatively modest purse. 

There's doubt that Saturday's winner of the Flower Bowl at Saratoga, Idea Generation, might even go for the Filly and Mare Turf, given the ideal circumstances that aided her victory over War Like Goddess. However, the latter might still be good enough to get a piece of the Breeders' Cup purse, even at the advanced age of seven.

The one WAYI prep winner I'd give a look at is Motorious, who captured the Green Flash H. for the second year in a row and is now a perfect 3-for-3 over the turf at Del Mar. He was the beaten favorite in the Turf Sprint at Santa Anita last year, though, and Cogburn perhaps is too dominant a division leader for him to topple, all things being equal.

AA: Gold Phoenix became the first three-time winner of the Del Mar H. (G2) and scored a ninth victory in 11 years for trainer Phil D'Amato, who also won another Breeders' Cup WAYI on Saturday at Del Mar with Motorious in the Green Flash (G3). Gold Phoenix, an Irish-bred son of Belardo, will now aim toward his third appearance in the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1), where he previously finished 10th (2022) and fourth (2023). 

While he stepped forward in last year's iteration of the Turf, he's unlikely to contend with the top runners from Charlie Appleby's barn or the European contingent shipping over with seven-time Breeders' Cup Turf winner Aidan O'Brien. Gold Phoenix recorded the slowest of his three winning times in the Del Mar H., and his 93 Brisnet Speed figure was a step below his 96 in 2023 and 95 in 2022. It should be noted, however, that the late runner had a slower pace to chase in the 2024 running once Balladeer scratched from the field and Dicey Mo Chara got away with fractions of :25.77, :51.13, 1:16.44, and 1:41.44 over a firm course. Nonetheless, it's unlikely we'll see the six-year-old gelding have enough go his way to upset the Breeders' Cup Turf field in November.

As for the Turf Sprint, D'Amato may have a better chance with Motorious, who struggled to start the season but rebounded upon his return to Del Mar, where he's now 3-for-3. The six-year-old came home fifth as the favorite in last year's Turf Sprint at Santa Anita but relishes the Jimmy Durante turf at Del Mar, and his win Saturday may indicate he's turning a corner just in time for the World Championships.

What else caught your eye from the weekend?

JS: Unraced since winning the Arkansas Derby (G1), Muth returned with a victory in Sunday’s Shared Belief S. at Del Mar. The three-year-old colt came under a ride leaving the far turn to fend off a challenger, eventually prevailing by two lengths over another late-running rival. The Good Magic colt figures to benefit from the hard-fought decision over a two-turn mile. Bob Baffert will aim his pupil to the $1 million California Crown (G1) on Sept. 28, and Muth figures to add more depth to the Classic with a strong showing.

Hope Road continued her progression with a five-length score in the Saturday’s Torrey Pines (G3) at Del Mar. Transferred to Baffert this season, the three-year-old filly was exiting impressive runaway wins over maiden and entry-level allowance rivals at six furlongs. She stretched to a two-turn mile Saturday and will likely stretch to 1 1/16 miles for the Zenyatta (G2) on Sept. 29, but the seven-furlong Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) will still be an option this fall. By Quality Road, Hope Road has shown an affinity for shorter distances and is out of Marley’s Freedom, a Grade 1-winning sprinter who earned more than $1 million competing in sprint stakes.

And I’ll mention Brightwork, who looks like a major player for the Filly & Mare Sprint following her comeback triumph in Saturday’s Prioress (G3) at Saratoga. A three-time stakes winner last year, including the seven-furlong Spinaway (G1), Brightwork was making her first start since a sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), and her only losses have come in a pair of two-turn attempts. She ran well to edge odds-on favorite Two Sharp by a neck, and that rival remains a promising prospect for Phil Bauer.

VH: Chancer McPatrick showed a lot of innate class to overcome much trouble to win the Hopeful (G1) on Monday. Hitting the gate at the start and severely bumping a rival a few steps later, Chancer McPatrick was also affected by jockey Flavien Prat briefly losing an iron. However, the pair recovered quickly and were certainly aided by the fast pace set by Smoken Wicked, who I thought ran one of the better races in the Hopeful but appears to be distance-limited in the long term.

Ferocious was the darling of the Hopeful bettors but perhaps lost focus in upper stretch before getting involved again in the latter stages. Incentive Pay also ran a nice race for third.

Chancer McPatrick is now one of the favorites for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), but I'd remain a bit cautious as his deep-closing running style is not always the most effective one to have. His stablemate Sierra Leone can tell him all about it.

AA: Godolphin homebred Immersive improved her record to 2-for-2 when winning the seven-furlong Spinaway (G1) at Saratoga on Saturday. The Brad Cox pupil was one of two late runners among a speed-laden 11-horse field. By Nyquist and out of a Bernardini mare, the two-year-old filly stopped the clock in 1:25.31 over a muddy (sealed) track and recorded a 91 Brisnet Speed figure, a huge jump from her 82 that she posted in a two-length debut victory at the Spa.

Following her win, Cox said Immersive will likely train up to the Alcibiades (G1), a Breeders' Cup Win and You're In for the Juvenile Fillies (G1). Cox has one previous win in the Juvenile Fillies with British Idiom, who also won the Alcibiades.

Last year, Cox had a number of juvenile fillies and colts who turned in impressive performances leading up to and along the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Oaks (G1) trails. While it's too early to say whether Immersive will be one who will continue along the path to the May 2 Oaks at Churchill Downs, her latest outing makes her one to watch as she progresses in her two-year-old season.