Racing Roundtable: Idiomatic back in top form ahead of Breeders' Cup and more prep results

This week, the Racing Roundtable evaluates the results of the major Breeders' Cup "Win and You're In" races — plus Road to the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Oaks (G1) prep action — at Keeneland, Aqueduct, Santa Anita, and ParisLongchamp.

What were your main takeaways from the Breeders' Cup prep action this weekend?

James Scully: Chad Brown is an 18-time Breeders’ Cup race winner, including the 2019 Mile (G1) with Uni, and he may have his best turf miler ever in Carl Spackler. The four-year-old is peaking at the right time for his leading trainer, recording a superb one-length tally in Saturday’s Coolmore Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland, and I love how Carl Spackler has come on in his last two starts, recording a convincing win in the Fourstardave (G1) at Saratoga prior to Saturday.

Carl Spackler took it to rivals in the Turf Mile, comfortably leading gate to wire. He’ll be on or close to the early lead in the Mile, and Carl Spackler will take some beating.

More Than Looks ran well to be a non-threatening second in the Turf Mile, and the four-year-old colt will be a candidate to keep moving forward when making his third start back from a lengthy layoff on Nov. 2. And I’m a big fan of recent City of Hope Mile (G2) winner Johannes, who is 4-for-4 this year, loves Del Mar’s turf, and may be set for a career-best effort on Nov. 2. 

American-based horses finished 1-2 in the 2019 Mile at Santa Anita, and they will have a good chance to snap a four-year stretch of European-based Mile winners this fall.

Additionally, Idiomatic tuned up for her Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) with a smart repeat win in Sunday’s Spinster (G1) at Keeneland, registering her top Brisnet Speed rating of the season (103) for the 6 1/2-length decision. First Lady (G1) winner Gina Romantica appears back in her best form, convincingly defending her title with a two-length decision Saturday at Keeneland, and she will look to improve upon a close fourth (beaten a length) in last year’s Mile. 

And I’ll mention Federal Judge, who blistered rivals when recording his first stakes win in Friday’s Phoenix (G2). He took advantage of a speed-favoring oval at Keeneland, but Federal Judge did it the right way, registering a huge number (107 Speed rating) for the 5 1/2-length triumph. The up-and-coming gelding will bring serious speed to the Sprint (G1).

Vance Hanson: One of the Breeders' Cup races most heavily impacted by the weekend's action was the Mile (G1). We had several strong performances at Keeneland, foremost by Carl Spackler, who led wire-to-wire in the Coolmore Turf Mile (G1). But I certainly wouldn't sleep on runner-up More Than Looks, who turned in a terrific late kick to whittle down Carl Spackler's winning margin to a diminishing length. This was only the second start of the season for More Than Looks, so he'll enter the Mile relatively fresh. Keep in mind he only lost last year's Mile by two lengths after finding himself near the tail of the field most of the way breaking from a wide draw. A better trip might find him capable of improving on that finish.

Gina Romantica proved again she runs to her best in the fall with a repeat win in the First Lady (G1). Trainer Chad Brown already has Carl Spackler for the Mile, but this mare only lost the Mile last year by a length, so she wouldn't be out of place if connections tried her again there. But more likely they aim for the Matriarch (G1) at the end of the Del Mar meet. In Europe, the three-year-old Ramatuelle looked amazing winning the Prix de la Foret (G1) at Longchamp on Sunday and will add even more depth to the European contingent, which is led by Notable Speech and Porta Fortuna.

Two Breeders' Cup contenders whose candidacies took a serious hit, in my opinion, were Raging Sea and Sweet Azteca. Raging Sea regressed significantly off her win in the Personal Ensign (G1) over Idiomatic with a life-and-death score in the Beldame (G2) over a vastly inferior rival. Perhaps she can shake that performance off leading into the Distaff (G1), but as a general rule I'm not a fan of runs like this ahead of the Breeders' Cup.

Sweet Azteca ran out of the money in the Chillingworth (G3) on Saturday, which caused bridge jumpers who bet her heavily to place to wail in agony. I was always a bit suspect that keeping her in California in advance of the Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) to overpower ostensibly weaker opposition wasn't going to be ideal Breeders' Cup preparation. On Saturday, at least, that proved the case.

Ashley Anderson: Two horses in particular had me feeling bullish ahead of the Breeders' Cup — Idiomatic, who demolished five rivals in the 1 1/8-mile Spinster (G1) at Keeneland, and Federal Judge, who won in quick fashion in the Phoenix (G2). The former rebounded from a head second to Raging Sea in the Personal Ensign (G1) to lead all the way on Sunday and post a 103 Brisnet Speed figure in her fifth start of 2024. The 2023 champion older dirt female brought her season mark to 5-3-2-0, with both of her losses coming by a head.

Earlier in the year, many thought Idiomatic may have taken a step back from her dominant 2023 season, when she finished with a 9-8-1-0 record, but on Sunday she proved she's still the one to beat ahead of her Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) defense. Three-year-old Thorpedo Anna will meet the Curlin mare in the 1 1/8-mile dirt test at Del Mar, and Idiomatic's showing on Sunday may have the public favoring the Brad Cox trainee over the 2024 Kentucky Oaks (G1) victress in November.

Another Brad Cox runner, Federal Judge, was equally as impressive on opening day of Keeneland's fall meet, when the Army Mule gelding ran away with the six-furlong Phoenix. Setting early fractions of :21.62 and :43.67, the Florida-bred drew off to win by 5 1/2 lengths in a final time of 1:08.20. His victory afforded him entry into the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) and handed him his first graded stakes tally. 

Co-owned by Siena Farm and WinStar Farm, Federal Judge succeeded in his first two starts of his career, a six-furlong maiden special weight at Oaklawn and a 6 1/2-furlong allowance at Churchill Downs, before weakening to fourth in the seven-furlong Woody Stephens (G1) last year. He hit the bench from there and returned more than a year later to race in a seven-furlong allowance at Saratoga, where he was caught late to finish second by three-quarters of a length. The cutback in distance in his last two starts has worked well, as Federal Judge romped to a six-length win in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance optional claimer at Saratoga ahead of his graded stakes coup on Thursday. His winning time of 1:08.20 came in faster than Elite Power's winning Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) time of 1:08.34 in 2023. Federal Judge also produced a career-best 107 BRIS figure in the Phoenix, making him one to respect in the Breeders' Cup Sprint.

Who stood out to you from the Road to the Kentucky Derby/Oaks prep races?

JS: After rallying to a half-length win in the Hopeful (G1), Chancer McPatrick continued to impress in Saturday’s Champagne (G1) at Aqueduct. The Brown-trained late runner dramatically circled rivals on the far turn to reach second turning for home, and he put away a game Tip Top Thomas in the stretch, drawing away to a 2 3/4-length decision.

With an ample amount of pace signed on for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), Chancer McPatrick will be a top contender at Del Mar, and the McKinzie colt appears built for longer distances. Tip Top Thomas, a debut maiden scorer on the Travers (G1) undercard, ran well in his first stakes attempt for Todd Pletcher, winding up nearly five lengths clear of third after an up-close trip.

East Avenue will bring speed to the Juvenile after an eye-catching win in Saturday’s Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland, establishing solid splits (:23.18 and :46.76) on a short lead before widening the advantage, romping by 5 1/4 lengths. The Medaglia d’Oro colt improved to 2-for-2 for Brendan Walsh. 

Citizen Bull made all the running in the American Pharoah (G1) at Santa Anita and on the front end, winning easily by two lengths, but he got away with moderate fractions as lone speed and figures to revert to up-close stalking tactics in the Juvenile. He rebounded from a third in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and the once-beaten Bob Baffert-trained son of Into Mischief registered a 100 Brisnet Speed rating, which will probably be the top last-out number in the Juvenile field.

As far as fillies, Non Compliant and Scottish Lassie established themselves as serious Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) contenders, posting wins in the Oak Leaf (G2) at Santa Anita and Frizette (G1) at Aqueduct on Saturday. Immersive didn’t run as fast capturing Friday’s Alcibiades (G1) at Keeneland, but the unbeaten multiple Grade 1 winner remains promising for Brad Cox.

VH: Although receiving another perfect trip on an uncontested lead, Breeders' Futurity (G1) East Avenue appears a very talented individual for Godolphin and trainer Brendan Walsh. The trainer thinks he's his best two-year-old since Maxfield, who won the Futurity five years ago and was an intended starter in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) at Santa Anita until sidelined by a foot abscess a few days before the race.

I recall being on the Maxfield bandwagon at the time and actually voting for him as champion two-year-old over Storm the Court, perhaps the most modest winner in Juvenile history. East Avenue won't have had to overcome any adversity going into the Juvenile, but his style of racing on or near the lead might be preferred over that of Chancer McPatrick, the Hopeful (G1) and Champagne (G1) winner, who as a one-run closer is always going to need a lot to go his way.

AA: Chancer McPatrick stood out with his 2 3/4-length last-to-first victory in the one-mile Champagne (G1). The two-time Grade 1 winner improved his record to 3-for-3 and posted a 94 BRIS figure plus a 122 Class Rating on Saturday at Aqueduct. The Chad Brown pupil broke better than he did in his previous two starts but still trailed the pack in the opening half-mile before putting in a long, wide rally to collar Tip Top Thomas inside the eighth pole. After the race, Brown — who won his fifth career Champagne — noted that Chancer McPatrick "runs his races like he’s a year older than he is." He also assured that two turns should be no issue for the son of McKinzie.

Over at Keeneland, East Avenue also made waves with a gate-to-wire conquest in the 1 1/16-mile Breeders' Futurity (G1). The unbeaten Godolphin homebred clocked a 95 BRIS figure and beat runner-up Ferocious by 5 1/4 lengths. Trained by Brendan Walsh, East Avenue has now wired the field in both career starts, and he set faster fractions than Citizen Bull did in a similar gate-to-wire walkover in the 1 1/16-mile American Pharoah (G1) at Santa Anita on Saturday.

What else caught your eye from the weekend?

JS: Donegal Momentum switched to turf with a nose allowance win on the Aug. 24 Travers undercard, defeating a couple of well-regarded rivals in Green Light and Vesting, and the three-year-old colt continued to show more with a two-length win in Thursday’s Gio Ponti S. on Aqueduct’s turf, easily conquering favored Take Me to Church and Royal Majesty, who had been beaten by two lengths or less by Carson’s Run, Trikari, and Legend of Time in his three previous stakes starts.

By Uncle Mo, an underrated turf sire who has multiple Grade 1 winners to his credit, Donegal Momentum opened his career with a couple of frontrunning performances on the main track, switching surfaces after a well-beaten fourth in the Amsterdam (G2) the third time out, and I like the versatility he has shown on turf, rallying from midpack in the allowance win and leading at every call in the Gio Ponti. Donegal Momentum has established himself as a turf horse to watch for Tom Morley.

And I’ll mention the lucrative $265,935 carryover into Wednesday’s early Pick 5 at Keeneland. Three of the five races drew at least 12 horses, and it promises to be a challenging sequence.

VH: There's an adage that says there are no bad Kentucky Derbies, but some are better than others. I think the same applies to Europe's most important weight-for-age test, the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1), which was held Sunday at Longchamp. Admittedly, I gave the winner Bluestocking short shrift ahead of time, but I think it's safe to argue the only Arc she was ever likely to win was this one. The fact of the matter is this Arc was sub-par. England's and Ireland's two best three-year-olds, City of Troy and Economics, weren't pointed to the race, and France's best horses, Goliath and Calandagan, were ineligible due to being geldings.

Bluestocking had a great form line having finished a clear second behind Goliath in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth (G1) in July, and she also ran easily the fastest of the Arc trials at Longchamp three weeks earlier in the Prix Vermeille (G1). Still, 5-1 was far too short a price for me to take on a filly whose career form didn't necessarily stand out over several others in the field who I felt had more upside. I always regret not cashing on a race I've invested on, but I don't regret not backing Bluestocking at the odds offered.

AA: Freshman sire McKinzie moved into second in the first-crop rankings by progeny earnings with a number of solid performances from his offspring over the weekend. In addition to Chancer McPatrick winning the Champagne, McKinzie was also represented by two-year-old filly Scottish Lassie, who upset the one-mile Frizette with a nine-length rout. Additionally, Tom Amoss trainee Quickick came home second by 1 1/4 lengths to Immersive in the Alcibiades, and Del Mar Futurity (G1) runner-up McKinzie Street finished third to Citizen Bull in the American Pharoah.

With $1,654,663 in progeny earnings, McKinzie is about $232,500 behind Tiz the Law, who remained atop the first-crop sire rankings through the help of Non Compliant's win in the Oak Leaf and Scythian's upset victory in the Miss Grillo (G2) over the weekend.