Racing Roundtable: Integration's bounce-back win, KDFW Pool 1

This week, the Racing Roundtable discusses Integration's potential ahead of the 2025 season, performances that caught their eye from the weekend, and their reactions to Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW).

Will Integration have a more successful 2025 than 2024?

James Scully: Integration appears poised for a successful 2025 campaign following Saturday’s convincing win in the Red Smith (G2) at Aqueduct, rallying powerfully to win the 1 3/8-mile test by a widening two-length margin, but he’s impossible to trust until proving his form outside of Aqueduct and Colonial Downs.

An impressive winner of the Hill Prince (G2) at Aqueduct last fall, Integration has recorded all five career wins, including four stakes, and a runner-up in the Arlington Million (G1) from six starts on the turf at Aqueduct and Colonial Downs. He’s winless from four starts elsewhere, a well-beaten third in a six-horse Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) at Keeneland being the only placing.

I want to believe Integration will carry his form forward at other venues next year, but he’s got to prove it.

Vance Hanson: I wasn't alone in thinking at the beginning of 2024 that Integration was going to prove one of the country's star turf performers, based on how stellar a start his career got off to in late 2023. In retrospect, I should have been a bit more cautious, given his relatively limited experience, and trainer Shug McGaughey has not minced words about how less effective Integration seems to be when he encounters less-than-firm ground in higher-level spots.

I do think, however, that winning a race like the Red Smith over 1 3/8 miles will open some doors for Integration going forward. New York has a strong stakes program for grass runners, with plenty of options in the 11-12 furlong range should Integration not make headway early next season in slightly shorter events. I think the colt still has an opportunity to hit new heights.

Ashley Anderson: Integration cut back to 1 1/4 miles on Saturday and chased a slow pace before gaining a lead in the stretch and prevailing by two lengths over stablemate Limited Liability. The Quality Road four-year-old remained unbeaten at Aqueduct in his second start at the track and otherwise visited the winner's circle at Colonial Downs in his other three previous victories. It's difficult to feel overly confident with Integration outside the confines of the New Kent, Virginia racetrack or Aqueduct, as he displayed inconsistency this season when racing at Keeneland, Churchill, and Gulfstream. He was a two-length fifth as the favorite in January's Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1), then cut back in distance in the Maker's Mark Mile (G1) at Keeneland and got up for third to Master of The Seas. Next out, he came home fourth in the Turf Classic (G1) at Churchill before scoring a 6 1/2-length victory over just two rivals in the Million Preview S. at Colonial. He may return to the Pegasus World Cup Turf in January, and his performance there will tell me a lot about whether he's turned a corner. For now, I'm taking a cautious approach.

What else caught your eye from the weekend?

JS: Unraced since June 2023, Bishops Bay returned at Horseshoe Indianapolis Monday, rallying from just off the pace to win a conditioned allowance going away at a mile and 70 yards. A son of Uncle Mo, the Brad Cox-trained colt won his first two starts at odds-on, a six-furlong maiden and two-turn entry-level allowance, at Fair Grounds early last year, and Bishops Bay followed with a pair of commendable second versus stakes rivals, missing by a head to Arcangelo in the Peter Pan (G2) and finishing behind Kentucky Derby (G1) runner-up Two Phil’s in the Ohio Derby (G3). 

Those are the only horses to beat Bishops Bay, who is likely headed back to stakes competition off the comebacker, and he’s another exciting prospect for next season. The top three from the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), Thorpedo Anna, and Dirt Mile (G1) winner Full Serrano are all expected to return in 2025.

VH: In addition to Integration winning the Red Smith, Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey enjoyed a banner Saturday. He also saddled Red Smith runner-up Limited Liability, won the River City (G3) at Churchill Downs (a race he first won 40 years ago) with Battle of Normandy, and finished second in the Hill Prince (G3) with Cugino. This continues an interesting trend as all but one of McGaughey's last 11 graded stakes winners dating back to late 2022 have been in grass events. 

A lot of McGaughey's success on turf over the last 10-15 years has been with the homebreds campaigned by Jockey Club chairman Stuart Janney, who has begun the process of winding down his Thoroughbred holdings as his children have shown no interest in continuing the stable over the long term. Janney dispersed more than $2.6 million worth of bloodstock at Keeneland this month, and the family's famed white and cherry silks, which have been sported by the likes of Ruffian and Orb, will become a pleasant memory after his remaining racing stock arrives and departs over the next decade.

AA: Paulo Lobo's barn has been hot at Churchill this month, and he built on his success this weekend with Upper Case's win in the Dream Supreme S. and a victory by Nom de Plume on Sunday in a $141K allowance. On Saturday, Upper Case — an American Pharoah four-year-old was making her stakes debut and had shown marked improvement in her last three starts for Lobo, winning a six-furlong allowance optional claimer at Ellis on Aug. 4 and placing second against allowance company in her next two at Churchill and Keeneland. In the Dream Supreme, speedster Spirit Wind broke slowly, shifting the pace dynamics, and Upper Case was able to save ground through the far turn and edged up under pressure to win by 1 1/4 lengths. The OXO Equine color bearer recorded a 90 Brisnet Speed figure and earned 2017 Eclipse Award-winning Champion Apprentice Jockey Evin Roman his first win in 20 mounts at Churchill after moving his tack from Northern California. Furthermore, over the weekend Lobo improved his record this month at Churchill to 7-3-1-0 and an 18% win percentage for the year.

What were your thoughts on Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW)? 

JS: Four individual interests were bet down to 25-1 or less in Pool 1. 

Chancer McPatrick (9-1) closed at the shortest odds off a pair of Grade 1 wins at one turn, the Champagne (G1) and Hopeful (G1), and his belated sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) did little to inspire confidence in his prospects at longer distances. But once East Avenue flubbed the break, the pace dynamics didn’t favor him at Del Mar. He’ll try to rebound for Chad Brown in his three-year-old debut.

East Avenue (11-1) lost all chance when the ground gave out from under him at the start of the Juvenile, stumbling badly out of the starting gate, and an inside post will be at least a minor concern next spring. But it’s fair to draw a line through the Juvenile effort and look for more next year from the impressive frontrunning winner of the Breeders’ Futurity (G1).

Jonathan’s Way (19-1) faltered when stretching to two turns in the Juvenile, weakening to seventh. A sharp winner of his first two outings, including the Iroquois (G3) at a one-turn mile, the colt’s prospects at longer distances next spring look questionable at this stage.

Sovereignty (22-1) was still green breaking his maiden by a five-length margin in the Oct. 27 Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs, and the Into Mischief colt certainly appears well-built for longer distances. He’ll need to keep getting faster, earning a 93 Brisnet Speed rating for the 1 1/16-mile Street Sense, but I thought Sovereignty’s 22-1 odds in Pool 1 represented fair value given his enormous upside for Bill Mott.

Supporters of Citizen Bull (29-1) and Gaming (26-1) were eligible to come away satisfied after the Bob Baffert-trained colts finished 1-2 in the Juvenile.

And I’ll mention the unnamed Into Mischief colt, a $3.2 million yearling purchase is out of an American Pharoah mare, for six-time Kentucky Derby winner Baffert. Listed as the #1 mutuel betting interest, the two-year-old closed at 39-1. Baffert said during Breeders’ Cup week that the colt is progressing nicely toward his first start.

VH: Given the fact the pool closed shortly before post time for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, long-time fans of Bob Baffert had to be especially pleased with getting 29-1 on Citizen Bull and 26-1 on Gaming, the Juvenile's one-two finishers.

On the flip side, those that backed Juvenile favorites East Avenue (11-1) and Chancer McPatrick (9-1) undoubtedly feel they got the short end of the stick pricewise, but their prospects might revive over the winter.

It was basically a "pick your price" for every other individual entry in the pool. Those who took a $2 flyer on European import Hill Road will be rewarded more than $554 should he improve on his third-place effort in the Juvenile.

AA: Chancer McPatrick closed at too short a price, at 9-1, and disappointed in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) with a troubled sixth for trainer Chad Brown. The post-time favorite, East Avenue, closed as the second individual choice in Pool 1 at 11-1, but I am hesitant to back the Brendan Walsh trainee at that short of odds. A better break certainly could have improved his chances, but the standout performances from the Juvenile belonged to Baffert's duo of Juvenile winner Citizen Bull and runner-up Gaming. The former closed at 29-1 in Pool 1, and Gaming wound up 26-1. I would take both at those prices and think they boast enormous potential on the Road to the Kentucky Derby (G1). Gaming was my top pick heading into the Juvenile, and the two-year-old possesses the pedigree to accomplish a win on the first Saturday in May. By Juvenile winner Game Winner and out of a Johannesburg mare, Gaming should handle 1 1/4 miles but on Breeders' Cup Saturday his stablemate got the better of him. Also hailing from a classic pedigree, Citizen Bull is by Into Mischief, who sired Kentucky Derby winners Authentic and Mandaloun, and his dam is by Distorted Humor. I see value in Baffert's pair coming out of Pool 1 of the KDFW but expected their odds to be much lower in Pool 2, which closes on Dec. 1.