Racing Roundtable: Keeneland graded stakes results and Breeders' Cup news

This week, the Racing Roundtable evaluates the top performers from Keeneland's graded stakes over the weekend, plus they talk recent racing news and results that could impact the Breeders' Cup.

What were your takeaways from the graded stakes action at Keeneland over the weekend?

James Scully: Emery looks poised to make a serious run at the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) in 2025, easily recording her third stakes victory of the season in the Raven Run (G2) for three-year-old fillies. After sustaining her lone defeat from five starts this year, a runner-up to possible 2024 Filly & Mare Sprint favorite Ways and Means in the Aug. 3 Test (G1) at Saratoga, Emery was a candidate for the Filly & Mare Sprint at Del Mar. Trainer Brad Cox opted for the Raven Run, and Emery looked good winning.

I also came away impressed by Brunacini’s performance in the Perryville (G3) for three-year-olds, courageously defeating odds-on favorite Book’em Danno by a neck. A late-starting son of Dortmund, Brunacini won his debut over seven furlongs at Ellis Park in late July but was unplaced when stretching to two turns at Churchill Downs as the favorite on Sept. 19. The inexperienced chestnut had to draw in from the also-eligible list in his first stakes attempt Saturday and was overlooked at 28-1, but Brunacini registered a strong 100 Brisnet Speed rating in the seven-furlong event.

He's the first graded stakes winner for 34-year-old Matthew Sims, who served as an assistant for his father, multiple Grade 1-winning conditioner Philip Sims, and Brunacini is a homebred colt for Emilie Fojan, who named Brunacini in honor of her late fiancé, horseman George Brunacini. 

Vance Hanson: Bettors relying on Book'em Danno to come through as the odds-on choice in the Perryville walked away perhaps thinking jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. was too clever by half in his decision making. Attempting to win while sticking as close to the inside as possible, Ortiz found himself in a position where he had little choice but to try and thread the needle between rivals to maintain Book'em Danno's momentum in deep stretch. Unfortunately for all involved, horsemen and bettors alike, Book'em Danno's passage wound up not being clean or clear enough.

The overachieving New Jersey-bred was the best horse on paper going in and arguably walking off the track, too, despite losing by a neck. He'll have other opportunities to make amends, but this is one he didn't deserve to lose.

Ashley Anderson: Chop Chop became the third horse to win both of Keeneland's 1 1/2-mile graded turf stakes for fillies and mares in the same year when she crossed the wire first by a nose in the Dowager (G3) on Sunday. The four-year-old by City of Light snapped a four-race losing streak in her return to Keeneland, where she won the 1 1/2-mile Bewitch (G3) during the spring meet. Prior to the Dowager, Chop Chop had finished a six-length fifth to Dowager favorite Neecie Marie in the Ladies Marathon (G3) at Kentucky Downs, but she turned the tables on that rival Sunday in Neecie Marie's first try at 12 furlongs. With the victory, Chop Chop earned Brad Cox a record fifth stakes win during the fall meet — the most by any trainer at a Keeneland meet. The previous record of four stakes victories was shared by six trainers — D. Wayne Lukas, Mark Casse, Graham Motion, Ben Jones, Todd Pletcher, and Chad Brown. 

Jockey Luan Machado was aboard Chop Chop and won twice on Sunday's card in addition to wins in the Perryville (G3) and a maiden claimer on Saturday. His successful weekend followed a difficult start to the week, when he misjudged the finish line in the final race, a 1 1/8-mile maiden claimer, on Wednesday's card, costing longshot Ultimate Strike what would have been a dominant win when Machado stood up in the irons at the sixteenth pole, the finish line for 1 1/16-mile races.

What else caught your eye?

JS: A roller coaster week for jockey Luan Machado, who cost his mount an apparent clear win in Wednesday’s finale at Keeneland when misjudging the finish line and easing up in the final sixteenth of a mile. The Brazilian native received a heavy dose of criticism and a three-day suspension from stewards, but Machado came back from the mistake like a true professional, bagging a pair of winners on both the Saturday and Sunday cards at Keeneland.

That included game wins in two of the three stakes, guiding and Dowager (G3) winner Chop Chop, and Machado helped generate a Pick 5 carryover by guiding longshot Interlock Empire to a victory. Machado will start his suspension next week.

Wednesday’s program features a $301,896 carryover into the Late Pick 5 (races 4-9). The challenge sequence involves big fields, with four of the five legs drawing at least 12 runners.

VH: Last year's Breeders' Futurity (G1) winner Locked made a successful return to the races Saturday, dazzling in a second-level allowance at Aqueduct by more than seven lengths. It was his first start since finishing a distant third to stablemate Fierceness in Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) last November, and it sounds like he'll use this as a springboard toward the Cigar Mile (G2) in early December.

Also on Saturday, another Eclipse Award was likely clinched when Snap Decision re-rallied between rivals late to land the American Grand National (G1) at Far Hills in a pretty brave effort over European invader Galvin, who was good and lucky enough to have finished a respectable fourth in England's Grand National last spring. Although next month's Colonial Cup (G1) has been added back to the steeplechase schedule after several years' absence, Snap Decision has seemingly done enough to wear the steeplechase crown this year, adding the Grand National to earlier wins this season in the Ferguson Memorial (G2), Temple Gwathmey (G2), and Iroquois (G1). Snap Decision would be just the fifth horse aged 10 or older to be voted champion steeplechaser since polls first began in 1936.

AA: Flavien Prat and Chad Brown reigned supreme at Belmont at the Big A over the weekend, with both adding to their already substantial stakes tallies for the year. In the Chelsey Flower on Sunday, the pair prevailed with Opulent Restraint in the 1 1/16-mile turf event for two-year-old fillies. The victory handed Prat his 68th stakes win of the year, 11 shy of the single-season record of 79 set by Irad Ortiz Jr. in 2022. Prat also won the Awad S. with two-year-old Brown runner Valuation Metric and finished second by a neck in the Athenia S. aboard post-time favorite Prerequisite, who was bested by stablemate Child of the Moon.

In total, Prat has also celebrated 47 graded stakes victories this year and needs eight more to tie Jerry Bailey's record of 55 set in 2003. Prat has the potential to set a record by the end of 2024, with mounts in all three graded stakes next Saturday at Aqueduct as well as viable chances in the Breeders' Cup. Among his possible mounts the first weekend in November are Chancer McPatrick, Zulu Kingdom, Domestic Product, Ways and Means, and Sierra Leone — all for the barn of Brown. Plus, he's likely to get the call on Goliad in the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) and Moira in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1). 

Brown likewise is in the lead for stakes victories by a trainer this year, with 60. Nineteen of those came with Prat, and 15 of those were graded.

Did any of this weekend's results or racing news affect your Breeders' Cup opinions?

JS: The $7 million Classic (G1) lacks a standout and most of the pre-race Classic (G1) attention centers around three-year-olds: Travers (G1) winner Fierceness, Japanese superstar Forever Young, and Irish-based turf titan City of Troy. All rate as serious win contenders, but I have concerns surrounding each.

A pair of older horses, Highland Falls and Newgate, appear to be training forwardly in preparation, recording five-furlong bullet workouts over the weekend. Both are Grade 1 winners at the Classic distance this year, with Highland Falls taking Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) and Newgate the Santa Anita H. (G1), and each owns the tactical ability to make his own trip.

I like how Highland Falls has progressed this season for Cox, who has been saying all season that 10 furlongs is his pupil’s best distance. Newgate, who missed nearly his entire four-year-old campaign last year, will be second off the freshening in the Classic, recording a neck third in the Sept. 28 California Crown (G1) after a six-month rest, and he registered an outstanding 107 Brisnet Speed rating last time.

VH: Potential Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) favorite Rebel's Romance has had his recent form lines enhanced during the month of October. The Godolphin homebred enters off a neck win in the Preis von Europa (G1) defeating Straight, who on Oct. 13 was a comfortable winner of the Gran Premio del Jockey Club (G2), one of Italy's top races for older horses.

Over the summer, Rebel's Romance finished a distant third in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth (G1) to Goliath, who returned a winner on Sunday in the Prix du Conseil de Paris (G2) at Longchamp in advance of a tilt in the Japan Cup (G1). Of course, the King George runner-up Bluestocking went on to win the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1).

This renewal of the Turf will not be a strong one, given the lack of depth in Europe this year and the fact the better U.S. turf horses were concentrated in the mile division. Rebel's Romance deserves to be a solid favorite.

AA: Trainer Michael McCarthy announced Sunday that Grade 1 winner Sweet Azteca will not compete in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) following her disappointing last-place finish in the Chillingworth (G3) at Santa Anita. The five-time winner misfired as the odds-on favorite in the 6 1/2-furlong event, and connections opted to skip the Breeders' Cup after she resumed training. Without the California-based speedster in the mix, the pace scenario should be softer in the seven-furlong sprint for females on Nov. 2. That will likely benefit recent Ballerina H. (G1) winner Society and multiple graded stakes victress Ways and Means, who both can win either setting the early pace or sitting right off of it. Bob Baffert runner Hope Road is the only other early pacesetter type pointed toward the Breeders' Cup, and a slower pace will likely hurt the chances of recent TCA (G2) heroine Zeitlos and other late runners in the field.

Ways and Means will likely be favored at Del Mar, and her form was flattered Saturday with Emery's win in the Raven Run (G2) as well. The Chad Brown trainee beat Emery by 2 1/2 lengths two back in the seven-furlong Test (G1), before Emery romped to a two-length victory in the seven-furlong sprint for three-year-olds at Keeneland.