Racing Roundtable: Pegasus World Cup Day, Speed King's Southwest upset

This week, the Racing Roundtable reflects on Pegasus World Cup Day at Gulfstream Park, Speed King's upset in the Southwest (G3) — a Road to the Kentucky Derby (G1) prep race — and what else caught their eye from the weekend.

Takeaways from Pegasus World Cup Day?

James Scully: White Abarrio is back in top form, recording a spectacular 6 1/4-length victory in the Pegasus World Cup (G1), and he carried his form outside of Gulfstream when winning the Whitney (G1) at Saratoga and Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) at Santa Anita in 2023. The six-year-old horse is an exciting presence in the older dirt male division that nobody was talking about a week ago.

Tyler Gaffalione performed at a high level on the Pegasus World Cup program, booting home three winners and recording three placings from eight stakes offered. 

Gaffalione guided Coppola ($6.60) to a clear lead from the starting gate and was never seriously threatened leading all the way in the Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint. His well-timed ride aboard Forever After All ($13.60) yielded a nose win in the La Prevoyante (G3), and Gaffalione piloted Spirit of St. Louis ($17.80) to his first stakes victory in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1), getting up by a neck to deny Integration, who suffered a tough trip and lost last year’s Turf with Gaffalione aboard. 

Gaffalione also got the most out of Pegasus Word Cup (G1) third Skippylongstocking, who just missed second by a neck to 9-5 favorite Locked.

Vance Hanson: My fears that White Abarrio had peaked in 2023 when he won the Whitney and Breeders' Cup Classic were proven completely unfounded in the Pegasus World Cup, as that was a tour de force victory on Saturday. As tempting as another shot at the Saudi Cup (G1) would be, connections might prefer to forego it this time, given the disappointment of last year. He's already gotten an early jump on Sierra Leone and the sidelined Fierceness in the race for 2025 Horse of the Year, and getting to the Breeders' Cup in the best shape possible should be a priority.

Locked simply isn't as good as White Abarrio at this stage of his career, but he's still lightly raced with a great deal of upside and is deserving of another opportunity at nine furlongs or longer. He is obviously a capable one-turn type, so there is always that to fall back on in case the longer two-turn experiments don't pan out. The remainder of the World Cup field is fairly well exposed.

I admit to having given Spirit of St. Louis very short shrift ahead of the Pegasus World Cup Turf, but Chad Brown proved again why he's won so many Eclipse Awards. Spirit of St. Louis has spent the vast majority of his career facing New York-bred company, but what I failed to give proper due was the horse's desire to win. He's now 10-for-14 lifetime and his prior open company races were more than respectable, including a troubled trip in last fall's Coolmore Turf Mile (G1) when he wasn't beaten much by Carl Spackler and More Than Looks, both of whom were stalwarts in the division last season.

Ashley Anderson: Trainer Saffie Joseph had a huge day at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, as he not only celebrated a dominant, record-setting win with White Abarrio in the Pegasus World Cup (G1), but he won two other graded stakes — the Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G2) with Be Your Best and the Inside Information (G2) with Mystic Lake. Six-year-old White Abarrio was stretching back out to a route for the first time since transferring back to Joseph's barn. He had previously romped to a 10 1/4-length victory in an allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream on Nov. 22, then placed second to Mufasa in the seven-furlong Mr. Prospector (G3). Joseph felt confident in White Abarrio ahead of the race because of the way he had been training. His only worry was whether White Abarrio would break alertly, and he did, allowing him to draw off in the final quarter-mile with a record 6 1/4-length margin of victory. Stablemate Skippylongstocking finished third, a neck behind 9-5 post-time favorite Locked.

On the undercard, Joseph also got a surprise win with 7.40-1 Be Your Best in the Filly & Mare Turf. The Irish-bred scored her third straight graded stakes victory in the process after holding off a late-charging Sacred Wish. Joseph also had the third-place finisher in this race, with In Our Time, a Not This Time four-year-old who was making her graded stakes debut after drawing in from the also-eligible list.

Lastly, Joseph tallied a Grade 2 win with Mystic Lake on Saturday in the Inside Information (G2). The Mo Town filly was coming off a three-quarter length victory in the six-furlong Sugar Swirl S. and stretched back out to seven furlongs, a distance from which she now owns a 4-for-5 record. Her career earnings surpassed the $1 million mark with her Inside Information coup, and she will likely point next to the Grade 1 Madison at Keeneland, a race where Joseph said he may opt to send Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) winner Soul of an Angel.

Buy or sell: Is Speed King a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender?

JS: Speed King put himself in the Kentucky Derby (G1) picture with a frontrunning win in the 1 1/16-mile Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn Park, but he was fortunate runner-up Sandman missed the break and I’m not keen on his chances at longer distances. By sprinter Volatile, Speed King is bred for sprint-to-middle distances on his dam side. He’s got something going for him, improving to 2-for-3 for Ron Moquett, but Speed King may prove better suited to the Pat Day Mile (G2) on the Kentucky Derby undercard.

Sandman is the Southwest horse I want for the Kentucky Derby. A maiden winner the second time out at Saratoga, the gray Tapit colt was far from a finished product as a two-year-old, making little impact finishing fifth in the Iroquois (G3) and third in the Street Sense (G3), but Sandman appeared to turn a corner winning an Oaklawn allowance in mid-December. He carried his form forward in the Rebel and while his Brisnet Speed numbers remain a little light, Sandman is just starting to come on for Mark Casse.

VH: As solid as the performance was in comparison to what we've seen from this crop so far, Speed King would be a sell for me at this point. Besides encountering mild pressure from a maiden and a recent maiden winner, both D. Wayne Lukas trainees, Speed King didn't really get challenged by what most observers thought were the better horses in the field. And the one who really could have, runner-up Sandman, threw away his chance at the start and perhaps ran the best race of all in his gallant attempt to close the gap late.

With all that said, Speed King is a likable progressive colt. I'm just wary that a horse with his running style is going to cherish an extra three-sixteenths of a mile while facing more formidable competition. The biggest takeaway for me is that Coal Battle, who beat Speed King in the Smarty Jones S., continues to be flattered.

AA: I hesitate to buy Speed King just yet due to his pedigree and run style. The son of Volatile improved his record to 2-for-3 on Saturday with his one-length gate-to-wire win in the Southwest (G3), but I'm concerned about him handling the 1 1/4-mile distance of the Kentucky Derby. His sire raced his entire career at six furlongs, finishing with a 5-for-6 lifetime mark punctuated by a victory in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt (G1). Volatile's sire Violence has stamina on his side, and his dam Athenian Beauty won at 1 1/16 miles on the turf, but whether Speed King can stretch out farther is a question mark. The other concern is his run style. He has gone to the early lead in all three starts, and Oaklawn was speed-favoring on Saturday, with only late closer Tejano Twist and the winner of a state-bred maiden special weight in the finale coming from far off the pace to win. I will need to see more to feel confident in Speed King on the first Saturday in May.

What else caught your eye from the weekend?

JS: White Abarrio wasn’t the only older dirt horse to make a mark over the weekend. Rattle N Roll, who captured the Nov. 29 Clark (G2) at Churchill Downs in his second start back from a year layoff, continued to advance with an eye-catching triumph in the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Cup (G3) at King Abdulaziz Racecourse, closing dynamically to win the about 1 1/8-mile event by about five lengths. He picked up an automatic berth to the $20 million Saudi Cup (G1), which will be held over the same track/distance on Feb. 22.

Rapture looks poised to try a Kentucky Derby qualifier following his convincing maiden win at Oaklawn Park Saturday. After tracking the pace in second, the Brad Cox-trained Uncle Mo colt powered clear in upper stretch of his first two-turn start, rolling home to score by a widening 6 1/2-length margin in the 1 1/16-mile race. Rapture progressed nicely off his career debut, a good second over a mile at Gulfstream to the Todd Pletcher-trained Vassimo, who came back to win a two-turn Tampa allowance on Jan. 17, and Rapture and Vassimo rate as intriguing types with plenty of promise in advance of their first stakes attempts.

Flavien Prat went to Oaklawn to ride Patch Adams, who wound up a disappointing fourth as the odds-on Southwest favorite, but he still may come away with a Kentucky Derby contender after picking up the mount on Rapture.

At Santa Anita, San Saba graduated at second asking Saturday, gamely winning a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight. Third to stablemate Madaket Road in late December, San Saba was one of nine Bob Baffert-trained runners in Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager a week earlier. Varney, another Baffert trainee who was included in Pool 3 despite being unraced, wound up a non-threatening third to San Saba as the 3.40-1 third choice.

VH: The Wine Steward made a winning return to the races Saturday taking the Fifth Season S. at Oaklawn. It was the New York-bred four-year-old's first race since finishing up the track in the Belmont S. (G1) last June in what was easily the worst effort of his career. Toss that race out, and the son of Vino Rosso has four wins and three seconds from seven starts. Each of those three losses was by less than a length, in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) to Locked, the Lexington (G3), and the Peter Pan (G3).

While I don't necessarily think The Wine Steward will develop into a top-tier older male this season, he's definitely one to keep an eye on for the remainder of the Oaklawn season (there are three races left in the division) and there are certainly a number of lucrative races in Kentucky in which he can be competitive the rest of the year.

AA: Kenny McPeek had two fillies join the Kentucky Oaks (G1) leaderboard ranks after Saturday's Martha Washington S. at Oaklawn. The winner, Take Charge Milady, catapulted to second on the leaderboard after collecting 20 points for her 5 3/4-length triumph in the 1 1/16-mile Oaklawn fixture. The win handed her a second victory from two starts this season. As a two-year-old, Take Charge Milady made her debut in a one-mile maiden special weight at Ellis Park in late July and came home a 6 1/2-length sixth. She returned off a nearly six-month layoff when shipping to Oaklawn for a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight event and came on late to finish second by 1 3/4-length. Her third career start over a sloppy Oaklawn track indicated improvement as she drew clear to win by four lengths with a then-career-best 86 Brisnet Speed figure while racing a mile. On Saturday, she built upon that effort in her first try against stakes company. 

The runner-up, Quietside, who was sent off at odds of 0.50-1, faced graded stakes company for the fourth straight start and once again placed. She has not won since breaking her maiden on debut in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga on Aug. 4. Gowells Delight, also trained by McPeek, earned four points on the Oaks leaderboard by finishing a distant fourth in the Martha Washington.

McPeek noted Take Charge Milady is likely to appear next in the Honeybee (G3). He also compared the filly to Take Charge Lady, a multiple Grade 1 winner who counted the Spinster (G1), twice, Dogwood (G1), and Ashland (G1) among her victories. She also placed second in the 2002 Kentucky Oaks.