Racing Roundtable: RTKD and RTKO action at Oaklawn Park and Turfway, including the Rebel (G2) [VIDEO]

This week, the Racing Roundtable scrutinizes the major Kentucky Derby (G1) and Oaks (G1) prep action at Oaklawn Park — including the Rebel (G2) and Honeybee (G3) — and Turfway Park, which hosted the John Battaglia Memorial S. and Cincinnati Trophy S.

What were your takeaways from the Rebel (G2) and Honeybee (G3)?

James Scully: By talented sprinter/miler Coal Front and from a speed-laden female family, Coal Battle broke his maiden sprinting at Evangeline Downs last summer and recorded his next two wins at Delta Downs and Remington Park. He’s been easy to underappreciate as a serious contender for the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby (G1), but Coal Battle deserves respect for a fine win in Sunday’s Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn.

Coal Battle rated in fifth through the opening half-mile of the 1 1/16-mile Rebel, about eight lengths behind loose-on-the-lead pacesetter Madaket Road. He launched an eye-catching wide move on the far turn, powerfully reeling in Madaket Road by upper stretch, and edged away to score by 1 1/4 lengths over a track that played favorably to speed.

Trained by 72-year-old Lonnie Briley, Coal Battle is now unbeaten from five dirt starts (pair of losses on turf) and continues to make the most of Kentucky Derby qualifiers, jumping to the top of the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 70 points by winning the Rebel (50 points), Smarty Jones (10), and Springboard Mile (10) in his last three starts.

Madaket Road tried to battle back in the stretch but had no excuses after an ideal trip. Southwest (G3) runner-up Sandman, who trailed by about 15 lengths during the opening stages, was too far back to make a serious impact but closed well to be a clear third. The Mark Casse-trained colt wants more ground and pace, and Sandman is the Rebel horse I want for the Kentucky Derby despite the third-place effort.

I still have my doubts about Coal Battle at Triple Crown distances this spring, but it’s easy to appreciate his talent and fortitude. He reminds me of Musket Man, a hard-trying and classy sort who won five of his first six starts, including the Illinois Derby (G2) and Tampa Bay Derby (G3), but appeared bred more for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) than the 2009 Kentucky Derby. Musket Man, who went on to earn more than $1.2 million, showed his heart finishing third in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness (G1) at double digit odds, and he never won again at a two-turn distance.

After finishing either second or third in four consecutive stakes, Quietside broke through with her first stakes tally in the Honeybee (G3). She established forward positioning from her outside post, closely tracking Five G before wearing down the pacesetter in the lane, and edged away to a one-length victory. Five G held second by 3 1/2 lengths over odds-on Muhimma, who surrendered pacesetting duties but was in position to challenge turning for home, lacking the necessary rally finishing a weakening third. The rest of the field made little impact.

Quietside registered a commendable 94 Brisnet Speed rating, five points better than her previous best, a runner-up in the Spinaway (G1) last summer. She rebounded nicely from a non-threatening second as the 1-2 favorite in the Jan. 25 Martha Washington at Oaklawm and even though the Malibu Moon filly was on the best part of the track (front end) Saturday, Quietside remains a candidate to keep progressing for John Ortiz off the confidence-building win.

Vance Hanson: From a betting perspective, my concern with Coal Battle going into the Rebel was that he would be a bit of an underlay on the board, given his wins in the Springboard Mile and Smarty Jones S. weren't overly fast vis-à-vis the competition. As it turned out, Coal Battle offered tremendous value at nearly 12-1 and kudos to those who took advantage. While it was the fastest of his three prep wins to date and he remains undefeated on the dirt, I was still looking for something a bit quicker at this stage of the prep season. I think he has some great assets, like positional speed and a nice turn of foot, but I don't think he'll ultimately be flattered by the horses behind him. I'm not sure Madaket Road really wants to stretch out to 10 furlongs, and Sandman is a horse that just tends to break slow and is entirely pace dependent. I could see him getting a piece of the Derby spoils, but not the biggest cut.

As far as the Honeybee, it was nice to see the perpetual bridesmaid Quietside wear the tiara for once, and it was a nice step forward for her. And owner John Ed Anthony has been in this game for decades and hasn't won either the Derby or Oaks, so having a legitimate contender in one of those races is great for him. I'm not sure what to make of Muhimma's flat third, other than cutting back from nine furlongs perhaps wasn't ideal. Shem might also be a filly better served being on or closer to the lead as she was during her juvenile campaign.

Ashley Anderson: Coal Battle continues to be the surprise, feel-good story on the Road to the Kentucky Derby after he beat high-profile Bob Baffert runner Madaket Road by 1 1/4 lengths in the 1 1/16-mile Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park on Sunday. The win was the fourth straight for Coal Battle, a son of Coal Front, since switching back to dirt from turf. The Lonnie Briley trainee now boasts a 5-for-7 record with more than $1 million in earnings; his two losses came on turf last season at Kentucky Downs and Keeneland. 

Coal Battle is a versatile three-year-old who can win on the lead or from off the pace, which he did on Sunday on the way to a career-best 98 Brisnet Speed figure with a 93 Late Pace rating. The dark bay colt has also accumulated victories over four different tracks. He faced 12 rivals on Sunday in his second start at Oaklawn and put away the likes of Sandman, Admiral Dennis, and much-hyped Kenny McPeek trainee Hypnus. 

As for the Honeybee, Quietside was overdue for a graded stakes victory after placing in four straight stakes — the Spinaway (G1) and Alcibiades (G1) behind Immersive, plus the Golden Rod (G2) won by Good Cheer and the Martha Washington, which saw Take Charge Milady achieve an upset. Sent off at 10-1 odds on Sunday, few expected the John Ortiz pupil to get over the hump in the Honeybee, as she confronted Brad Cox behemoth Muhimma, who disappointed as a .90-1 favorite. While Quietside deserves respect for her one-length win on Sunday that secured her a career-best 94 BRIS figure, the bigger takeaway was the performance of previously unbeaten Muhimma, who came up empty in the 1 1/16-mile test. The gray filly has been touted as a top Kentucky Oaks contender, along with her stablemate Good Cheer, but Sunday’s showing left Good Cheer in front in the battle between the two for Oaks favoritism out of Cox's barn.

Did either Derby/Oaks prep at Turfway yield a major contender?

JS: Probably not, but California Burrito and White Rocks are eligible to keep developing.

After winning one of four starts last year, California Burrito has come on as a three-year-old, romping by 7+ lengths over allowance rivals and recording a game half-length decision in the John Battaglia Memorial, but he still has something to prove after winning both races on the front end on slow paces. We figure to get a better gauge on the Tommy Drury-trained colt in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway on March 22.

White Rocks has also made fine progress in her last two starts, breaking her maiden by six lengths in mid-January and recording a gate-to-wire triumph in the Cincinnati Trophy. The gray filly will bring speed to future engagements for Arnaud Delacour, but White Rocks almost let a near 10-length lead on the far turn slip away, holding by 1 1/4 lengths on the wire. 

VH: I didn't see a performance in either the John Battaglia Memorial or Cincinnati Trophy that turned my head. The Battaglia turned out to be a tactical win for California Burrito, but kudos to Baby Max for trying to close the gap late after chasing such a soft pace. Both horses have decent form on dirt, but ultimately the different surface is a sticking point for me. I know we're supposed to give Turfway form a closer look following the efforts of Rich Strike and Two Phil's, but it's more likely to emerge from the Jeff Ruby than this race.

White Rocks simply built up a huge lead in the Cincinnati Trophy and had enough in the tank to hold off Admit. Both would appear creatures of Tapeta until they have the opportunity to prove otherwise.

AA: Between the two, I was a bit more impressed with the win by California Burrito in the 1 1/16-mile John Battaglia Memorial, as he had to fight off a game Baby Max in the stretch and never had it easy on the front end. Jockey Irving Moncada opted to stay on the mount with the Army Mule son over Coming In Hot, recent winner of the Turfway Prevue S., and praised California Burrito for how he had worked leading up to the John Battaglia, where he recorded a career-best 92 BRIS figure for the half-length victory, in his second start beyond a mile.

The day prior on Friday, there was a glaring speed bias at Turfway, and White Rocks was one of eight wire-to-wire winners on the 10-race card. She earned an 88 BRIS figure for her 1 1/4-length win over runner-up Admit, who I thought put in a noteworthy performance rallying from off the pace but ran out of time to close the gap in the one-mile event. Racing longer should suit the daughter of Blame out of a War Front mare.

What else caught your eye?

JS: Cornucopian may look to get on the Kentucky Derby trail following a smashing debut win at Oaklawn Park Sunday, drawing off to win a six-furlong maiden test by nearly six lengths. By Into Mischief, the Bob Baffert-trained colt received an excellent 100 Brisnet Speed rating.

Baffert had another impressive first-out winner at Santa Anita Saturday, Tiz Secure, who rallied from just off the pace to win going away by about five lengths and earned a 97 Speed rating in the six-furlong maiden race. By Maximum Security, Tiz Secure is out of the multiple Grade 1-winning Tough Tiz’s Sis.

Throw the first 13 career starts out the window for Alexander Helios! They don’t tell the story of Saturday’s Razorback (G3) winner, who is starting to discover his best form as a five-year-old for Saffie Joseph.

A half-brother to 2021 Preakness winner Rombauer, Alexander Helios was unplaced in his first four starts in 2022 and finally broke through with his first career win at the conclusion of his three-year-old season, graduating the eighth time out at Churchill Downs in November 2023. He was a decent allowance type last year, winning two of four starts, but suddenly headed to the sidelines last May.

Alexander Helios returned from an eight-month vacation with a sharp allowance win at Gulfstream in mid-January, generating a career-best 98 Speed rating for the 2 1/2-length decision, and the improving son of Cairo Prince earned a 104 figure in the 1 1/16-mile Razorback. He may point to the $1.25 million Oaklawn H. (G2) on April 19.

VH: The Saudi Cup (G1) lived up to the hype and more when the world-class Forever Young and Romantic Warrior put on a terrific stretch battle on Saturday.

Hong Kong-based Romantic Warrior, one of the world's top grass runners with major wins in his homeland, Japan, Australia, and Dubai, was making his first ever start on dirt, and likely his last. He took to the unfamiliar footing just fine, and pretty much looked a winner for much of the final few furlongs after an impressive burst to the lead turning for home. But Forever Young is one of the world's best on dirt, and after being passed by Romantic Warrior, reeled him back in to win. The rest of the field was far back.

Critics might contend jockey James McDonald moved too soon on Romantic Warrior, but if he were the best horse on the day, he would have kept going and won. Forever Young was simply the better horse, but not by much.

I believe Romantic Warrior would have become the first horse to surpass the $30 million mark in career earnings with a win, but that record will have to wait until later this year, when he'll presumably continue his winning ways in Hong Kong. As for Forever Young, hopefully he'll make an intended return engagement in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), which is shaping up to be an outstanding renewal if all of the main principals like him, White Abarrio, Sierra Leone, and Fierceness make it to the starting gate.

AA: Cherie DeVaux continues to excel to start the 2025 season, and she added to her tally last week with four victories, including a sharp, rail-skimming win by Justique in the Carousel S. on Sunday at Oaklawn. Another notable win came earlier in the week at Fair Grounds, where Mantalcino scored his third win from four career starts and posted a 95 BRIS figure when winning by 5 1/2 lengths in gate to wire fashion under Jose Ortiz, who also rode Justique to victory. Montalcino is a Take Charge Indy four-year-old whose lone loss is by a head to Miles Ahead in the six-furlong Thanksgiving Classic last November. DeVaux said Saturday's start was a prep for the Commonwealth S. (G3) at Keeneland. She's currently third in wins at Fair Grounds and has won 13 of the 26 maiden special weight races she has entered. One of those maiden winners is Ahavah, a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Vahva who broke her maiden on debut on the Risen Star (G2) undercard two weeks ago and was guided by none other than Ortiz.