2015 Kentucky Derby BRIS Speed Rating Report

Let’s take a look at the recent BRIS Speed ratings earned by 2015 Kentucky Derby contenders. As a matter of comparison, the two previous numbers of the last 15 winners are also included.

Listed below are 24 of the top 25 point earners under consideration for the Kentucky Derby ranked by last-out BRIS Speed ratings -- the most recent is listed first (on the left) and ties are decided by the figure earned two starts back. U.A.E. Derby winner Mubtaahij, who is guaranteed a spot in the 20-horse field with 100 points, is not listed – he’s never received a BRIS Speed rating racing abroad. The five horses outside the bubble presently are denoted.

2015 Kentucky Derby contenders BRIS Speed ratings

Frosted:		107-89
Dortmund:		106-102
Materiality:		105-102
Tencendur:		105-90
Upstart:		103-95
American Pharoah:		102-99
Carpe Diem:		102-96
Firing Line:		101-100
El Kabeir:		101-95
One Lucky Dane:		101-96
International Star:		99-97
Stanford:		99-94
Danzig Moon:		99-81
Bolo:		98-100
Ocho Ocho Ocho:		96-83
War Story:		94-96
Frammento (23rd in points):		94-89
Far Right:		93-93
Keen Ice (22nd):		92-94
Mr. Z:		92-76
Madefromlucky (21st):		91-91
Bold Conquest (24th):		91-88
The Truth or Else (25th):		84-87
Itsaknockout:		82-91

Last 15 Kentucky Derby winners two previous BRIS Speed ratings

California Chrome:		106-102
Orb:		97-102
I’ll Have Another:		98-102
Animal Kingdom:		97-96(t)
Super Saver:		99-99
Mine That Bird:		88-87
Big Brown:		110-102
Street Sense:		98-105
Barbaro:		104-104
Giacomo:		100-96
Smarty Jones:		105-109
Funny Cide:		111-103
War Emblem:		109-105
Monarchos:		108-108
Fusaichi Pegasus:		110-103

Some quick observations:  

·  Ten horses are poised to enter the 2015 Kentucky Derby with a last-out BRIS Speed rating of 100 or better – that’s a testament to the quality of the prospective 2015 field.

·  In 2014, California Chrome snapped a five-year streak of Kentucky Derby winners failing to earn a last-out triple-digit Speed rating; I can’t envision any of the 14 horses above, with a sub-100 last-out Speed rating, offering a serious challenge.

·  The deep roster is going to guarantee value with some talented three-year-olds – from a Speed figure standpoint, little separates Firing Line, Materiality and Upstart from the top contenders but any or all three could wind up greater than 10-1 if the betting public throws its support heavily behind American Pharoah, Dortmund and any others.

·  American Pharoah is ranked sixth by last-out Speed rating – many consider him to be a standout and you would assume that a horse of his reputation would be at or near the top of the list.

·  How legit is top-ranked Frosted? His Kentucky Derby status looked doubtful following a Fountain of Youth performance two starts back in which he suddenly quit running hard, but he underwent a minor surgical procedure to improve his breathing and recorded a dramatic turnaround in the TwinSpires.com Wood Memorial, rallying to win going away. However, Frosted defeated a questionable field last time.

·  Dortmund’s numbers are strong and given that he loved the Churchill Downs’ track last fall, impressively posting a 7 ¾-length victory over allowance rivals, he’s got a nice one-two punch in his favor.