2015 Preakness BRIS Speed Rating Report

American Pharoah will attempt to capitalize upon his Kentucky Derby success as a solid favorite in Saturday’s Preakness Stakes. A winner of five straight, the Bob Baffert-trained colt appears unlikely to regress from a BRIS Speed rating perspective, generating a 100 at Churchill Downs.

In fact, we can expect to see American Pharoah earn a higher number in the Preakness.

Nine of the last 18 Kentucky Derby winners captured the Preakness Stakes two weeks later and six posted a better BRIS Speed rating at Pimlico. Only four Preakness winners since 1997 failed to run faster than the previous start.

Preakness winners BRIS Speed ratings since 1997:

Year		Horse		Preakness Speed		Previous Start
2014		California Chrome		104		103
2013		Oxbow		111		98
2012		I’ll Have Another		109		108
2011		Shackleford		103		101
2010		Lookin at Lucky		104		97
2009		Rachel Alexandra		105		111
2008		Big Brown		101		111
2007		Curlin		113		99
2006		Bernardini		114		110
2005		Afleet Alex		112		99
2004		Smarty Jones		113		106
2003		Funny Cide		111		108
2002		War Emblem		110		113
2001		Point Given		107		97
2000		Red Bullet		106		105
1999		Charismatic		104		105
1998		Real Quiet		106		101
1997		Silver Charm		112		107

American Pharoah opened the year with a pair of respectable Speed ratings, generating a 99 and 102 for easy wins in the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby, and received the first real test of his career in the Kentucky Derby. The son of Pioneerof the Nile proved up to the task, scoring a one-length decision, and has bounced back well according to reports.

He stalked a moderate pace and the Derby field didn’t come home quickly last time, but circumstances won’t be the same in Baltimore. American Pharoah is the crème of the three-year-old crop and supporters will be looking for a breakout performance at Pimlico.

Baffert’s three previous Derby winners all came back to take the Preakness, with Real Quiet and Silver Charm posting a significantly higher BRIS Speed rating, and American Pharoah appears capable of delivering the same improvement as well.

In terms of the competition, Derby runner-up Firing Line and third-placer Dortmund remain potentially formidable, generating commendable BRIS Speed numbers in prep races, and Materiality, who netted a 105 BRIS Speed rating for his Florida Derby tally, could show more following a troubled sixth on Derby Day if entered.

Those are the only Preakness rivals with a realistic chance to challenge American Pharoah.

Listed below are the last three BRIS Speed ratings for the 2015 Preakness contenders, with the most recent listed first (on the left) and the horses ranked alphabetically:

Horse		Last 3 BRIS Speed Ratings
American Pharoah		100-102-98
Bodhisattva		96-95-89
Danzig Moon		93-99-81
Divining Rod		96-87-95
Dortmund		96-106-102
Firing Line		98-101-100
Materiality		91-105-100
Tale of Verve		95-85-80