2018 Belmont Stakes BRIS Speed Rating Report

Known as the “Test of the Champion,” the Belmont Stakes serves as the third jewel in the American Triple Crown and Justify will try to complete the sweep at its demanding 1 ½-mile distance. The well-built chestnut colt is unbeaten from five starts.

The Bob Baffert-trainee registered the highest BRIS Speed rating in the six-year history of the Kentucky Derby points’ qualifying system when posting a 114 for an easy win in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and his numbers tower over the Belmont competition. However, Justify’s Speed ratings declined in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and he failed to earn a triple-digit number for the first time in the latter.

Here are the BRIS Speed ratings of the current Belmont Stakes probables (Bandua & Gronkowski don’t have numbers from Europe):

HORSE		RACE		BRIS SPEED
BLENDED CITIZEN		Peter Pan		98
		Blue Grass		93
		Jeff Ruby		100
BRAVAZO		Preakness		97
		Kentucky Derby		93
		Louisiana Derby		76
FREE DROP BILLY		Kentucky Derby		58
		Blue Grass		94
		Gotham		96
HOFBURG		Kentucky Derby		93
		Florida Derby		104
		Maiden		96
JUSTIFY		Preakness		98
		Kentucky Derby		102
		Santa Anita Derby		114
NOBLE INDY		Kentucky Derby		57
		Louisiana Derby		100
		Risen Star		96
RESTORING HOPE		Pat Day Mile		59
		Wood Memorial		96
		Maiden		92
TENFOLD		Preakness		97
		Arkansas Derby		94
		Allowance		93
VINO ROSSO		Kentucky Derby		91
		Wood Memorial		102
		Tampa Bay Derby		91

Analysis

Blended Citizen posted consecutive triple-digit Speed ratings earlier this year (third & fourth starts back) and he’s remarkably the lone Belmont Stakes prospect with a start over the track, closing strongly to capture the May 12 Peter Pan (G2) going away by 1 ½ lengths. It was a strange track last time (downgraded to good prior beforehand after on-and-off-again rain all day) and I liked the tactical speed Blended Citizen displayed, racing within two lengths of the lead at the early points of call before offering another visually impressive late kick. He possesses a formidable turn foot, registering BRIS Late Pace ratings as high as 108 while passing rivals and closing ground through the stretch of his last six starts, and brings improving form into the Belmont Stakes for Doug O’Neill.

Bravazo took a step forward upon recent efforts in the Preakness, closing boldly in deep stretch to miss by only a half-length in second, but it is a little disconcerting to see the dark bay colt fail to earn a Speed rating better than 98 from 10 career starts. He does appear on the upswing for D. Wayne Lukas, who has orchestrated notable turnarounds in form from 3-year-olds Charismatic, Oxbow and Will Take Charge in recent decades, and Bravazo remains a candidate to step forward with a career-best performance in the Belmont Stakes.

Free Drop Billy doesn't appear fast enough to challenge.

Hofburg ran the fastest race among Justify’s rivals, netting a 104 Speed rating for his runner-up effort to subsequent Kentucky Derby third-placer Audible in the Florida Derby (G1). Conditioned by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, Hofburg was making his stakes bow in the Florida Derby and appeared arguably a race short when stepping up with a troubled seventh in the Kentucky Derby. The chestnut colt has had five weeks to regroup and may be ready for a much-improved effort in the Belmont Stakes. And he’s by Tapit, who hasn’t had much luck in the Kentucky Derby but always seems to have one of his offspring ready for a peak performance in the Belmont Stakes, siring three of the last four winners.

Justify brings dangerous speed to the Belmont Stakes and his last two starts have come on wet tracks, conditions which make me leery to make any definitive declarations upon his lower Speed ratings. He ran great earlier this year under fast conditions, including the Santa Anita Derby which he dominated on the lead through moderate fractions, and Justify must be viewed as a serious threat to run the competition off their feet similar to American Pharoah, who made an easy lead and saved plenty for the final furlongs. Declining Speed numbers can still be classified as a legitimate concern especially with an odds-on choice trying a new track surface for the first time. And betting against prohibitive favorites with a Triple Crown on the line has been the way to play the Belmont Stakes, with an 11-for-12 success rate (92%) over the past 40 years.

Noble Indy is one of five horses with a triple-digit Speed rating from the last three starts, netting a 100 for a game tally in the TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2), and he had little chance from post 19 in the Kentucky Derby. The Todd Pletcher pupil has the speed to be a pace factor but tough to envision him being involved in the latter stages.

Restoring Hope never fired on a sloppy track in the Pat Day Mile (G3) and the maiden winner has never run fast from five career ouitings.

Tenfold didn’t make his career debut until February and after an after an even performance in his stakes debut, he bounced back with a fine third in the Preakness. The Curlin colt grinded his way into contention late and came up only three-quarters of a length short, registering a career-best 97 Speed rating. He still has plenty of potential upside for Steve Asmussen and Tenfold can’t be dismissed from consideration with another step forward in the Belmont Stakes.

Vino Rosso posted comfortable wins over maiden and allowance foes in his first two starts but couldn’t deliver upon his promise when facing stakes rivals in the Sam F. Davis (G3) and Tampa Bay Derby (G2). He rebounded from those setbacks in the Wood Memorial (G2), earning a 102 Speed figure for the three-length decision, and the emphasis seemed to be on the Belmont Stakes in the aftermath. The chestnut made up some ground late to be ninth in the Kentucky Derby and we can count on Pletcher tightening the screws for the Belmont Stakes. Two of his three wins have come in New York and Vino Rosso could be poised for a big effort.

Here are the BRIS Speed ratings for the last 15 Belmont Stakes winners:

HORSE		RACE		BRIS SPEED
TAPWRIT		Kentucky Derby		89
		Blue Grass		87
		Tampa Bay Derby		101
CREATOR		Kentucky Derby		84
		Arkansas Derby		100
		Rebel		95
AMERICAN PHAROAH		Preakness		100
		Kentucky Derby		100
		Arkansas Derby		102
TONALIST		Peter Pan		107
		Allowance		93
		Maiden		93
PALACE MALICE		Kentucky Derby		93
		Blue Grass		96
		Louisiana Derby		97
UNION RAGS		Kentucky Derby		100
		Florida Derby		102
		Fountain of Youth		103
RULER ON ICE		Federico Tesio		93
		Sunland Derby		93
		Allowance		93
DROSSELMEYER		Dwyer		94
		Louisiana Derby		96
		Risen Star		95
SUMMER BIRD		Kentucky Derby		96
		Arkansas Derby		98
		Maiden		92
DA’ TARA		Barbaro		99
		Derby Trial		96
		Allowance		91
RAGS TO RICHES		Kentucky Oaks		109
		Santa Anita Oaks		98
		Las Virgenese		98
JAZIL		Kentucky Derby		99
		Wood Memorial		101
		Fountain of Youth		94
AFLEET ALEX		Preakness		112
		Kentucky Derby		99
		Arkansas Derby		107
BIRDSTONE		Kentucky Derby		90
		Spiral		87
		Allowance		97
EMPIRE MAKER		Kentucky Derby		106
		Wood Memorial		111
		Florida Derby		106

Analysis

Seven of the last 15 Belmont Stakes winners earned a declining Speed rating in the previous start. Two of those, Palace Malice (97-96-93) and Union Rags (103-102-100), had declining numbers in the last two outings like Justify (114-102-98).

Six Belmont Stakes winners came into the race off an improved number. Da’ Tara (91-96-99) was the only one with increasing numbers in the last two starts.

American Pharoah and Ruler on Ice paired up in the last two starts.

Here are the BRIS Speed ratings for the last eight horses who came up short with a Triple Crown on the line:

HORSE (YEAR)		RACE		BRIS SPEED
CALIFORNIA CHROME (2014)		Preakness		104
		Kentucky Derby		103
		Santa Anita Derby		106
BIG BROWN (2008)		Preakness		101
		Kentucky Derby		111
		Florida Derby		110
SMARTY JONES (2004)		Preakness		113
		Kentucky Derby		106
		Arkansas Derby		105
FUNNY CIDE (2003)		Preakness		111
		Kentucky Derby		108
		Wood Memorial		111
WAR EMBLEM (2002)		Preakness		110
		Kentucky Derby		113
		Illinois Derby		109
CHARISMATIC (1999)		Preakness		104
		Kentucky Derby		105
		Lexington		104
REAL QUIET (1998)		Preakness		106
		Kentucky Derby		101
		Santa Anita Derby		107
SILVER CHARM (1997)		Preakness		112
		Kentucky Derby		107
		Santa Anita Derby		102

Analysis

All registered triple-digit BRIS Speed ratings in the three previous starts, with five of eight improving from the Kentucky Derby to the Preakness.

Two of the three with declining Speed figures in the Preakness (War Emblem and Big Brown) were unplaced in the Belmont Stakes and Charismatic finished third.

For complementary Belmont Stakes past performances courtesy of Brisnet.com, visit http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/BelmontStakes18.pdf.