2019 Kentucky Derby: Contender Birth Dates and Historical Trends

Based on their birth dates, it appears that the 2019 Kentucky Derby contenders are skewing a bit younger than usual this year.

You can usually count on there being a handful of January-born contenders, along with a few born in May, while the majority will have been born during the February/March/April window. But 2019 is shaping up to be a bit different. Not a single top 25 Derby contender was born in January, while four were born in May and will celebrate their true birthdays after the Derby is run.

Even the February/March/April window is skewed slightly toward younger runners, with nine born in April compared to six apiece in February and March.

Improbable	February 11
Master Fencer	February 12
Gray Magician	February 16
Spinoff	February 18
Tacitus	February 21
Bourbon War	February 23
Game Winner	March 6
Win Win Win	March 20
Signalman	March 21
By My Standards	March 22
Haikal	March 23
Plus Que Parfait	March 23
Cutting Humor	April 7
Long Range Toddy	April 12
Anothertwistafate	April 17
Sueno	April 17
War of Will	April 17
Tax	April 20
Bodexpress	April 23
Roadster	April 23
Omaha Beach	April 24
Country House	May 8
Maximum Security	May 14
Vekoma	May 22
Code of Honor	May 23

This is noteworthy when you consider February and March have been by far the most productive months when it comes to producing recent Kentucky Derby winners. Over the last 30 years, 21 Derby winners have been born during February (10) and March (11), along with six born in April, two in May and one in January.

Justify	March 28
Always Dreaming	February 25
Nyquist	March 10
American Pharoah	February 2
California Chrome	February 18
Orb	February 24
I’ll Have Another	April 1
Animal Kingdom	March 20
Super Saver	March 18
Mine That Bird	May 10
Big Brown	April 10
Street Sense	February 23
Barbaro	April 29
Giacomo	February 16
Smarty Jones	February 28
Funny Cide	April 20
War Emblem	February 20
Monarchos	February 9
Fusaichi Pegasus	April 12
Charismatic	March 13
Real Quiet	March 7
Silver Charmer	February 22
Grindstone	January 23
Thunder Gulch	May 23
Go for Gin	April 18
Sea Hero	March 4
Lil E. Tee	March 29
Strike the Gold	March 21
Unbridled	March 5
Sunday Silence	March 25

The reasons for these trends are surely multi-faceted, but it’s not hard to conclude that 3-year-olds born in January are more likely to be past their peak (and perhaps going through a growth spurt) on Derby Day compared to horses born in February or March, while horses born in April (and particularly May) are more likely to be immature and a month or two away from reaching their peak form.

Among the top-ranked Derby contenders, Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) winner Improbable, champion 2-year-old Game Winner, Wood Memorial (G2) winner Tacitus and Louisiana Derby (Gg2) winner By My Standards could be considered to have a slight advantage based on their birth dates.

In contrast, Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Roadster, Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Omaha Beach, Florida Derby (G1) winner Maximum Security and Blue Grass Stakes (G2) winner Vekoma were all born between April 23 and May 22, later than 27 of the last 30 Kentucky Derby winners. The good news is they all won major prep races in spite of their late birth dates, and if you conclude that these younger runners still have room for improvement as they mature, that could make them dangerous on the first Saturday in May.