2021 Travers Stakes tipsheet

Some of the best three-year-old Thoroughbreds in North America will square off in Saturday’s $1.25 million Travers S. (G1) at Saratoga, an important steppingstone toward the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).

Seven horses are entered, including champion juvenile and Belmont S. (G1) winner Essential Quality, but an upset could be in the offing.

Travers picks

• #7 King Fury
• #4 Dynamic One
• #2 Essential Quality
• #3 Keepmeinmind

Travers wagers

• $7 exacta: 4,7 with 2 ($14)
• $2 exacta box: 4,7 ($4)
• $1 trifecta: 4,7 with 2 with 3,4,6,7 ($6)
• $1 trifecta: 4,7 with 3,4,6,7 with 2 ($6)

Travers contenders

#1 Midnight Bourbon (9-2) didn’t show his best in the Haskell S. (G1), when he clipped heels and lost his rider in the stretch. But the Preakness S. (G1) runner-up was weakening at the time, and the 1 1/4-mile distance of the Travers may stretch the limits of Midnight Bourbon’s stamina. He might be a miler at heart.

#2 Essential Quality (4-5) has been sensational for nearly a year, with seven wins in eight starts. The champion two-year-old male of 2020 has been sharp in 2021 and enters the Travers off determined victories in the Belmont S. (G1) and Jim Dandy S. (G2). But Essential Quality had to work a bit harder than usual to win the latter, by a half-length over Keepmeinmind, which suggests his morning-line odds might be a little short. We could have a race on our hands if Essential Quality doesn’t move forward.

#3 Keepmeinmind (6-1) has finished behind Essential Quality on five occasions, but he gave the champion a run for his money in the Jim Dandy and came up just a half-length short in his best run of the season. Winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) as a juvenile, Keepmeinmind has slowly rounded back into peak form and is eligible to give Essential Quality another tussle on the stretch out to 1 1/4 miles.

#4 Dynamic One (6-1) ran well below form in the Kentucky Derby (G1), where he finished 18th, but the son of Belmont winner Union Rags bounced back impressively in the Curlin S. at Saratoga last month. Dynamic One settled in last for much of the 1 1/8-mile journey, then unleashed a sweeping rally to seize command in midstretch and win by 1 3/4 lengths. The Todd Pletcher trainee has gradually progressed, and his proven affinity for Saratoga stamps him as a stretch-running threat to upset the Travers.

#5 Miles D (12-1) tried to match Dynamic One’s rally in the Curlin S., but couldn’t keep pace down the lane and took second place. On the bright side, this Chad Brown trainee has only run three times (and only twice in 2021), so he still has upside for improvement. As a son of Curlin, out of a Bernardini mare, Miles D is bred to relish 1 1/4 miles and might have a shot to crash the superfecta at a big price.

#6 Masqueparade (8-1) couldn’t keep pace with Essential Quality and Keepmeinmind when he finished third in the Jim Dandy, but he previously displayed impressive grit and tenacity to beat King Fury and Keepmeinmind by a half-length in the Ohio Derby (G3). The son of Upstart has improved by leaps and bounds since the spring and may have another move forward in him. The pace scenario of the Travers could be favorable. Masqueparade figures to enjoy a perfect trip stalking Midnight Bourbon through modest fractions.

#7 King Fury (15-1) never fired when he tried turf in the Saratoga Derby (G1) three weeks ago, but if you draw a line through that effort, his form looks solid. The son of Curlin kicked off 2021 with a stretch-running score in the Lexington S. (G3), then rallied to second place in the Ohio Derby. A deep closer, bred to appreciate 1 1/4 miles, King Fury can outrun expectations in the Travers, especially when you consider that the Ohio Derby was his first start since he missed the Kentucky Derby with a fever.