2022 Kentucky Derby contenders: foaling dates and Dosage Indexes
Epicenter winning the Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds (Photo by Lou Hodges, Jr/Hodges Photography)
May 5th, 2022
Kentucky Derby (G1) bettors who believe in the importance of the Dosage Index have nothing to fear in the 2022 edition of the Run for the Roses. No matter which horse they like, they'll be supporting a horse who fits the Dosage theory's Kentucky Derby criterion.
The Dosage Index is one of several mathematical data points that define Dosage, a means of analyzing pedigrees based on the stallions contained within the first four generations of bloodlines. The goal is to determine whether a horse is bred to be best as a sprinter, a miler, a classics type, or a long-winded stayer.
In the 1980s, Dosage rose to prominence as a Kentucky Derby handicapping angle due to the fact every Derby winner going back decades boasted a Dosage Index of 4.00 or lower. The popularity of Dosage has waned in recent years, in no small part because eight of the last 25 Kentucky Derby winners had Dosage Index higher than 4.00, as outlined below.
| YEAR | WINNER | FOAL DATE | DOSAGE INDEX |
|---|
2021 | MANDALOUN | 18-Mar | 11.00 |
2020 | AUTHENTIC | 5-May | 3.00 |
2019 | COUNTRY HOUSE | 8-May | 2.69 |
2018 | JUSTIFY | 28-Mar | 3.00 |
2017 | ALWAYS DREAMING | 25-Feb | 5.00 |
2016 | NYQUIST | 10-Mar | 7.00 |
2015 | AMERICAN PHAROAH | 2-Feb | 4.33 |
2014 | CALIFORNIA CHROME | 18-Feb | 3.29 |
2013 | ORB | 24-Feb | 3.21 |
2012 | I'LL HAVE ANOTHER | 1-Apr | 2.11 |
2011 | ANIMAL KINGDOM | 20-Mar | 1.67 |
2010 | SUPER SAVER | 18-Mar | 3.00 |
2009 | MINE THAT BIRD | 10-May | 4.33 |
2008 | BIG BROWN | 10-Apr | 1.67 |
2007 | STREET SENSE | 23-Feb | 2.14 |
2006 | BARBARO | 29-Apr | 2.41 |
2005 | GIACOMO | 16-Feb | 4.33 |
2004 | SMARTY JONES | 28-Feb | 3.29 |
2003 | FUNNY CIDE | 20-Apr | 1.53 |
2002 | WAR EMBLEM | 20-Feb | 3.40 |
2001 | MONARCHOS | 9-Feb | 1.40 |
2000 | FUSAICHI PEGASUS | 12-Apr | 3.67 |
1999 | CHARISMATIC | 13-Mar | 5.22 |
1998 | REAL QUIET | 7-Mar | 5.33 |
1997 | SILVER CHARM | 22-Feb | 1.22 |
The good news for 2022 is the fact every potential Kentucky Derby starter boasts a Dosage Index of 4.00 or lower, which means the theory is guaranteed to bounce back with a winner. As of Monday morning, Churchill Downs lists 23 horses under consideration for the Kentucky Derby. We've included them (and their Dosage Indexes) below.
| YEAR | WINNER | FOAL DATE | DOSAGE INDEX |
|---|
2021 | MANDALOUN | 18-Mar | 11.00 |
2020 | AUTHENTIC | 5-May | 3.00 |
2019 | COUNTRY HOUSE | 8-May | 2.69 |
2018 | JUSTIFY | 28-Mar | 3.00 |
2017 | ALWAYS DREAMING | 25-Feb | 5.00 |
2016 | NYQUIST | 10-Mar | 7.00 |
2015 | AMERICAN PHAROAH | 2-Feb | 4.33 |
2014 | CALIFORNIA CHROME | 18-Feb | 3.29 |
2013 | ORB | 24-Feb | 3.21 |
2012 | I'LL HAVE ANOTHER | 1-Apr | 2.11 |
2011 | ANIMAL KINGDOM | 20-Mar | 1.67 |
2010 | SUPER SAVER | 18-Mar | 3.00 |
2009 | MINE THAT BIRD | 10-May | 4.33 |
2008 | BIG BROWN | 10-Apr | 1.67 |
2007 | STREET SENSE | 23-Feb | 2.14 |
2006 | BARBARO | 29-Apr | 2.41 |
2005 | GIACOMO | 16-Feb | 4.33 |
2004 | SMARTY JONES | 28-Feb | 3.29 |
2003 | FUNNY CIDE | 20-Apr | 1.53 |
2002 | WAR EMBLEM | 20-Feb | 3.40 |
2001 | MONARCHOS | 9-Feb | 1.40 |
2000 | FUSAICHI PEGASUS | 12-Apr | 3.67 |
1999 | CHARISMATIC | 13-Mar | 5.22 |
1998 | REAL QUIET | 7-Mar | 5.33 |
1997 | SILVER CHARM | 22-Feb | 1.22 |
We have also listed the birth dates of the Kentucky Derby contenders and past Kentucky Derby winners, and for good reason. As can be seen in the first chart, the last 25 Kentucky Derby winners were all born between February and May. Not a single January foal has managed to visit the Run for the Roses winner's circle during the last quarter-century.
This is significant when you consider how Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Epicenter (born Jan. 29) is the expected favorite for the 2022 Kentucky Derby. His flashy 0.60 Dosage Index might be the lowest in the prospective field, but Epicenter's early birth date hints he may have peaked during the winter/early spring. Might his younger rivals have more upside for improvement on the first Saturday in May?
Stay tuned to TwinSpires Edge for more Kentucky Derby news and notes as the first Saturday in May approaches.
