2024 Belmont Stakes Brisnet Speed Rating Report and Run Styles

Saturday’s $2 million Belmont S. (G1) will be contested over 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga due to the refurbishment of Belmont Park, and Kentucky Derby (G1) runner-up Sierra Leone heads a cast of 10 three-year-olds. The final leg of the Triple Crown will return to a 1 1/2-mile distance at Belmont next year.

Here is a look at Brisnet Speed ratings and projected run styles for the 2024 field.

Speed Ratings

Here are the last three Brisnet Speed ratings for the Belmont contestants except Mindframe, who has raced only twice. Horses are ranked by top last-out number.

Analysis

Four entrants – Antiquarian, Dornoch, Honor Marie, and The Wine Steward – have failed to register a triple-digit Speed rating in their career.

The last 10 Belmont winners, including longshots Creator (16-1) and Sir Winston (10-1), reached the triple-digit threshold in their three previous starts. Palace Malice (2013) is the last who failed to do so, but he registered a 101 Speed rating in his seasonal opener five starts earlier. Ruler on Ice, who upset the 2011 edition at 24-1, is the last Belmont winner to never earn a triple-digit Speed rating.

None of this year’s runners have registered multiple triple-digit numbers in the last three outings, but Kentucky Derby (G1) winner and Preakness (G1) runner-up Mystik Dan earned a 101 figure when romping by eight lengths in the Southwest (G3) four starts back.

Preakness upsetter Seize the Grey and Mystik Dan bring a positive Speed rating pattern into the race, the only runners to net increasing numbers in the last two starts.

Sierra Leone took a slight step back from a number perspective in the Kentucky Derby, with a four-point Speed rating decline, but his last two numbers (97 and 101) remain formidable in this year’s field.

Mindframe owns the top figure, registering a 108 Speed rating for a 13-length debut win at seven furlongs on March 30. 

A pair of runners are winless at two-turn distances. The Wine Steward has narrowly missed thrice, finishing a close second in the Peter Pan (G3), Lexington (G3), and Breeders’ Futurity (G1). Protective is still a maiden, dropping his first four career starts, and he will seek to improve upon a pair of non-threatening thirds in the Peter Pan and Wood Memorial (G2).

Run Styles

This year’s Belmont pace is eligible to be faster than normal at the shortened 1 1/4-mile distance. 

Early types – Seize the Grey chased a hot pace winning the one-mile Pat Day Mile (G2) two back and wired the Preakness field at 9.80-1, scoring by 2 1/4 lengths. The D. Wayne Lukas-trained gray colt will send hard from his innermost post with Jaime Torres.

Dornoch will play a key role for late runners. He didn’t break sharply from the rail post in the Kentucky Derby, winding up 10th, but Dornoch has come back with several sharp drills in Saratoga and figures to be asked for speed from post 6. The Good Magic colt registered 103 E1 and 110 E2 Pace ratings winning the Remsen (G2) on the front end last December, and Dornoch has the speed to push the pace if he breaks better.

Early/Pressers – Mindframe led all the way winning a two-turn allowance by 7 1/2 lengths on the Kentucky Derby undercard, but he rallied from fourth to break his maiden. The lightly raced close will probably be hustled to avoid losing ground, tracking the frontrunners from his far outside post in the Belmont.

The Wine Steward has also displayed the versatility to race up close or settle more toward midpack.

Pressers – Mystik Dan won’t be far back in the early stages, racing sixth in the opening stages of the Kentucky Derby and fourth in the Preakness. Brian Hernandez Jr. will look to establish an inside ground-saving trip, and with Seize the Grey and Resilience to his inside in the starting gate, it will be interesting to see whether Mystik Dan lets those two rivals go and looks to drop in behind them.

Resilience added blinkers two starts back and wasn’t far back in the early stages of the Kentucky Derby. Antiquarian also possesses some tactical ability. Protective rates more as a one-run stalker.

Sustained – Sierra Leone has shown a willingness to take the overland route closing from far back, and trainer Chad Brown will change the bit and jockeys (Flavien Prat takes over) in search of his first Belmont victory.

Grade 2 winner Honor Marie, a troubled eighth in the Kentucky Derby, will also look to close from out the back.