2024 Belmont Stakes: Weather forecast, chance of rain for the day of the race
Belmont Stakes trophy (Photo by Coglianese Photography)
June 8th, 2024
National Weather Service Detailed Forecast for the Baltimore area during the Belmont Stakes.
Saturday: Scattered showers, mainly before 1 PM. Highs near 73 with a gentle breeze with westward wins of 11 to 16 mph, with stronger gusts, up to 34 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30% with less than a tenth of an inch possible.
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The importance of weather prediction when precipitation is on the table
Weather predictions are an important aspect to consider when handicapping any race. Some contenders perform better on a sloppy track versus a fast one. It's a good idea to always be prepared when the weather changes. And let's be honest, it can change rather quickly.
Changing weather predictions could change the race
Earlier in the week rain was anticipated throughout Belmont Stakes Race Day. However, the rain seems to be most likely, according to radar, to occur around 9 AM and later in the afternoon. With the precipitation surrounding the
Run Analysis
Four entrants – Antiquarian, Dornoch, Honor Marie, and The Wine Steward – have failed to register a triple-digit Speed rating in their career.
The last 10 Belmont winners, including longshots Creator (16-1) and Sir Winston (10-1), reached the triple-digit threshold in their three previous starts. Palace Malice (2013) is the last who failed to do so, but he registered a 101 Speed rating in his seasonal opener five starts earlier. Ruler on Ice, who upset the 2011 edition at 24-1, is the last Belmont winner to never earn a triple-digit Speed rating.
None of this year’s runners have registered multiple triple-digit numbers in the last three outings, but Kentucky Derby (G1) winner and Preakness (G1) runner-up Mystik Dan earned a 101 figure when romping by eight lengths in the Southwest (G3) four starts back on a sloppy track.
Preakness upsetter Seize the Grey and Mystik Dan bring a positive Speed rating pattern into the race, the only runners to net increasing numbers in the last two starts.
Seize the Grey has proven his skill over a wet and fast track, proving his versatility when it comes to racing. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has been noted in the Preakness notes as stating, "Seize the Grey would be better on it," when discussing the changes of a wet track.
However, with no rain in sight, will Seize the Grey be favored on the fast track with other great contenders?
Sierra Leone took a slight step back from a number perspective in the Kentucky Derby, with a four-point Speed rating decline, but his last two numbers (97 and 101) remain formidable in this year’s field.
Mindframe owns the top figure, registering a 108 Speed rating for a 13-length debut win at seven furlongs on March 30.
A pair of runners are winless at two-turn distances. The Wine Steward has narrowly missed thrice, finishing a close second in the Peter Pan (G3), Lexington (G3), and Breeders’ Futurity (G1). Protective is still a maiden, dropping his first four career starts, and he will seek to improve upon a pair of non-threatening thirds in the Peter Pan and Wood Memorial (G2).
Hourly Forcast
