2024 Hong Kong Cup: Trends and storylines

Two-time defending champion Romantic Warrior furnishes the leading storyline going into the Dec. 8 Hong Kong Cup (G1) while illustrating recent trends in the Sha Tin feature.

Hong Kong Cup trends

While international raiders had held the upper hand earlier in the race’s history, locals have won eight of the past 13 editions. The tide turned with California Memory (2011-12), who became the first two-time Cup champion, and Romantic Warrior (2022-23) emulated his feat.

Of the last eight Hong Kong-trained winners, seven graduated from the final course-and-distance prep, the Jockey Club Cup (G2). But only two turned the double – California Memory (2012) and Romantic Warrior (2022). The other five improved from prep losses to win the Cup. 

Within this 13-year time span, Japan also hit a purple patch with five winners between 2015-21. That quintet includes the most recent female winners in Normcore (2020) and Loves Only You (2021). 

Three of those recent Japanese winners were exiting the Tenno Sho Autumn (G1), most memorably Maurice (2016), who won both major races. Compatriots A Shin Hikari (2015) and Win Bright (2019) were unplaced in the Tokyo feature and rebounded in Hong Kong. If you widen the lens to include Japan’s 2001 hero, Agnes Digital, note that he won the Tenno Sho en route to the Cup.

Going back further to 1999, when the Cup took on its present form, you find the golden era of the Europeans. For our purposes, we’re including the Godolphin winners officially representing the United Arab Emirates, Fantastic Light (2000) and Ramonti (2007), and European veteran Eagle Mountain (2008), who technically counted as a South African because of trainer Mike de Kock. 

European-campaigned horses won nine of the first 12 runnings of the about 1 1/4-mile prize, from Jim and Tonic (1999) to Snow Fairy (2010). But they’ve been eclipsed by the growing strength of the Pacific Rim over the past decade or so.

Snow Fairy is one of five females to win the Cup in its current form. The British shipper ranks as just the second three-year-old filly to beat older males here. The first, Jim Bolger’s Alexander Goldrun (2004), is also the only Irish-based winner of the Cup so far. 

Looking at the past 20 years, eight favorites have justified market support, a trend bolstered by Romantic Warrior. Only three have sprung upsets at double-digit prices. 

Nine of the last 20 winners broke from posts 1-4. Just two in that time frame overcame double-digit draws, Alexander Goldrun (post 12 of 14) and A Shin Hikari (post 11 of 13). 

Storylines for the Hong Kong Cup

Romantic Warrior on cusp of more historic accomplishments

If Hong Kong’s reigning Horse of the Year achieves the first-ever Cup three-peat, he would also surpass the all-time earnings record held by recently retired Golden Sixty. Moreover, Romantic Warrior’s connections are viewing the Cup as a springboard to a Mideast campaign in 2025, including ambitious plans to try dirt in the Saudi Cup (G1) and potentially advance to the Dubai World Cup (G1). Romantic Warrior already sports an incredible resume after plundering Australia’s Cox Plate (G1) in 2023 and Japan’s Yasuda Kinen (G1) in June. If he can add the riches of the Arabian dirt to his portfolio, he’d go straight into the pantheon of all-time greats.  

Liberty Island back on song?

Runner-up to world champion Equinox in last year’s Japan Cup (G1), and third to Rebel’s Romance in the March 30 Dubai Sheema Classic (G1), Liberty Island boasts terrific international formlines. But the two-time Japanese champion filly ran well below that level in her comeback in the Tenno Sho Autumn, where she faded to 13th as the favorite. She needed that race badly off a seven-month layoff, however, and last year’s Fillies’ Triple Crown sweeper has every right to bounce back. 

Tastiera hopes to add to Hori’s HKIR record

Noriyuki Hori has compiled an in-the-money percentage of 75% from 12 Hong Kong International Races (HKIR) starters. He holds the distinction of being the only international trainer to turn an HKIR double in the same year, courtesy of Maurice in the Cup and Satono Crown in the 2016 Vase (G1). Maurice previously lifted the 2015 Hong Kong Mile (G1), making Hori a three-time HKIR winner overall, and his pupils have also racked up six placings at this banner meeting. 

Three of those placings have come in the Cup, and Tastiera is arguably better than Hori’s past representatives Neorealism (2017) and Hishi Iguazu (2021, 2023). A son of Satono Crown, Tastiera was honored as last year’s Japanese champion three-year-old colt after capturing the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) (G1) and finishing second in the other two classics. Tastiera was most recently runner-up in the Tenno Sho Autumn to Do Deuce, who came back to score in the Japan Cup.

Aidan O’Brien still looking for first Cup

Although Aidan O’Brien has won the Vase three times, the Cup has barely eluded his grasp. The master of Ballydoyle came close to toppling Romantic Warrior last year with Luxembourg. Earlier, his four-year-old filly Magic Wand (2019) just missed in a photo, and the mare Magical (2020) was a gallant third.

Now O’Brien is back with a couple of sophomore fillies in Content and Wingspan. Both are cutting back in trip from unplaced efforts in their respective Breeders’ Cup races. While Ryan Moore sticks with Content, the unexposed Wingspan appears to have the tactical edge with Wayne Lordan. There’s also a Ballydoyle versus ex-Ballydoyle subplot: the sold-off Massive Sovereign, who landed the Hong Kong Derby for his new connections, lines up against his former stablemates. 

Will Spirit Dancer love Sha Tin as much as Bahrain?

One might have thought that seven-year-old Spirit Dancer was at a crossroads after sustaining an injury in Dubai this spring. But the Richard Fahey trainee proved that he was as good as ever when successfully defending his title in the Nov. 15 Bahrain International Trophy (G2). Staying on strongly late to get up in time, Spirit Dancer became the first two-time winner of Bahrain’s signature race. That equaled his career-best performance from a year ago, but the Frankel gelding was similarly convincing in the Feb. 24 Neom Turf Cup (G2) on Saudi Cup Day. If Spirit Dancer takes to Sha Tin as well, he could be in the mix. 

More analysis to come following the Dec. 5 final declarations.