2024 Hong Kong Mile: Trends and storylines

The retirement of Golden Sixty has created a golden opportunity for a new star to emerge in the Dec. 8 Hong Kong Mile (G1), but it’s less obvious to predict his successor at Sha Tin.

Hong Kong Mile trends

Hong Kong-based milers have kept the trophy at home 18 of the past 22 years. Eight of those victories came courtesy of repeat winners. Good Ba Ba (2007-09) scored an unprecedented treble, eventually matched by Golden Sixty (2020-21, 2023). In between, Beauty Generation (2017-2018) hoisted back-to-back trophies.

Fifteen of those 18 local winners prepped in the Jockey Club Mile (G2). Seven won both the prep and the main event.

The two most notable exceptions to the Jockey Club Mile rule were both coming off long layoffs – Glorious Days (2013), who had not raced since winding up 11th in Japan’s Yasuda Kinen (G1), and Golden Sixty (2023), last seen landing the Champions Mile (G1) in the spring.

Trainer Tony Cruz is responsible for four wins with four different horses. California Spangle (2022) thwarted Golden Sixty by a neck, depriving that legend of a grand slam in the Mile. Cruz previously won with Lucky Owners (2003), Beauty Flash (2010), and Beauty Only (2016). 

Yet the pro-Hong Kong stat is not synonymous with favorites. Only six favorites have won going back 23 years, and three were named Golden Sixty. In the same time span, nine winners went off at odds of 8-1 or greater, six of them at upwards of 15-1. 

In the past 19 years, only Japan has been able to interrupt the sequence of local winners. After Japanese shipper Hat Trick (2005), it took a decade for Maurice (2015) to follow suit, and the latest is Admire Mars (2019). Both Hat Trick and Maurice were wheeling back after taking the Mile Championship (G1) at Kyoto.

Admire Mars is the only sophomore to win the Mile, and New Zealand’s Sunline (2000) is unique on two counts, as a female and an Antipodean. Australian shippers won three times in the early years, when the race’s predecessor was conducted at about seven furlongs. 

No European has won since Firebreak (2004), a Godolphin runner who was technically listed under the United Arab Emirates banner. Firebreak is also the last winner to prep going shorter, having won the seven-furlong Challenge (G2) at Newmarket in his prior start.

Eleven of the past 22 winners were coming off victories, and 17 had cracked the trifecta last time out. Thus only five were rebounding from an unplaced effort, including Beauty Flash who was at least a solid fourth. 

Interestingly, outside draws have been preferable. In its 25-year history as a metric mile event, 11 winners broke from post 10 or wider. Only three winners were drawn in the first three posts, and none on the rail. 

Storylines for Hong Kong Mile

Voyage Bubble aims to go one better

Last year’s Mile runner-up, Voyage Bubble, aims to inherit the mantle of Golden Sixty. The admirably consistent performer captured two-thirds of Hong Kong’s Four-Year-Old Series in 2023, the Classic Mile and Hong Kong Derby, and both of his Group wins came at this course and distance – the Jan. 21 Stewards’ Cup (G1) and the Nov. 17 Jockey Club Mile, defeating all of the other local contenders. Voyage Bubble’s only poor efforts have come abroad, suggesting that he’ll run his typical race here.

Vincent Ho hails Galaxy Patch as heir apparent

Golden Sixty’s regular rider, Vincent Ho, regards Galaxy Patch as his heir apparent. Describing him as the “next future star,” Ho said that the ultra-talented prospect would “probably replace Golden Sixty at the mile.” He offered those comments after guiding Galaxy Patch to a brilliant first-up victory in the Oct. 13 Sha Tin Trophy (G2), where he beat 135-pound highweight Voyage Bubble. Although Galaxy Patch was subsequently third in the Jockey Club Mile, the closer has displayed a sparkling turn of foot over a range of distances, including when second in the 2024 Queen’s Silver Jubilee Cup (G1) and Hong Kong Derby.

Soul Rush returns better than ever

Japan’s Soul Rush, fourth to Golden Sixty and Voyage Bubble a year ago, had been knocking on the Group 1 door for a couple of seasons. He finally burst through in the Nov. 17 Mile Championship, his third try at the Kyoto feature. Considering that he was a neck second in that same event in 2023 on the way to Sha Tin, Soul Rush has claims to fare better in this return visit. He also sports form with Hong Kong Horse of the Year Romantic Warrior, having placed a close third to him in the June 2 Yasuda Kinen. 

Jantar Mantar has echoes of Admire Mars

Clinching Japanese champion two-year-old colt honors in the Asahi Hai Futurity (G1), losing his perfect record going longer at three, and rebounding back down in trip in the NHK Mile Cup (G1), Jantar Mantar brings a profile awfully reminiscent of 2019 Mile winner Admire Mars. 

But there are a couple of significant differences as well. On the plus side, Jantar Mantar performed better in the first jewel of the Triple Crown, the about 1 1/4-mile Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) (G1), where he was narrowly beaten in third in record time. Finishing fifth was Shin Emperor, who’s gone on to place in both the Irish Champion (G1) and Japan Cup (G1). On the other hand, Jantar Mantar must defy a layoff since May 5 while trying elders for the first time; Admire Mars at least had the benefit of a fall prep. 

Antino flies flag for Australia

Bred like Sunline in New Zealand but trained in Australia, Antino bids to score a landmark win in this race for his adopted country. The reliable miler created a sensation in the Toorak H. (G1) two starts back at Caulfield, unleashing an electric move to go last to first while still on the turn and drawing off by 6 1/2 lengths. Antino waited longer to rally in his latest in the Cantala (aka Champions Mile) (G1) at Flemington and came up about a half-length shy of the gladiator Mr Brightside. Note that Blake Shinn, who masterminded his Toorak romp, will reunite with him here. 

Bizakov’s keeper versus Bizakov’s castoff

That’s too harsh a way to frame the intriguing dynamic of Lazzat versus Ramadan, but it’s true that owner Nurlan Bizakov kept one homebred and sold the latter. Both are vying to become the first European-based three-year-old to win this race in its Mile incarnation. The gelding Lazzat is already a Group 1 winner over older horses via the Prix Maurice de Gheest (G1), although he’s yet to go quite as far as the metric mile. 

The colt Ramadan is proven at the distance, most recently taking the Prix Daniel Wildenstein (G2) during Arc weekend. Promptly offered at Arqana’s Arc Sale, Ramadan commanded the top price of more than $1.6 million. New owner Zhang Yuesheng transferred him to British trainer James Ferguson as a caretaker ahead of the Mile, but plans call for Ramadan to remain on the scene and join Mark Newnham for a Hong Kong Derby campaign.

More analysis to come following the final declarations Dec. 5.