2024 Hong Kong Sprint: Trends and storylines

While the presence of the past two Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) upsetters, Starlust and Nobals, will attract the notice of North American racing fans, the center of gravity in Sunday’s Hong Kong Sprint (G1) lies with the locals led by Ka Ying Rising. 

Hong Kong Sprint trends

Hong Kong sprinters are exceptionally tough to beat on their home turf at Sha Tin. In the 25-year history of this race, just six times has an international shipper prevailed. Two of those successful raids came in its early years as an about five-furlong dash down the straightaway, when Falvelon (2000-01) scored for Australia.

The Sprint was lengthened to about six furlongs around the right-handed turn in 2006. Since the victory of South Africa’s J J the Jet Plane (2010), only Japan has found a way to overcome the locals. Lord Kanaloa (2012-13) reigned supreme twice, and his son Danon Smash (2020) furthered his legacy.

Thus no European or American-based runner has managed to win the Hong Kong Sprint. No three-year-olds or females have won either.

Trainers Tony Cruz and Ricky Yiu have each sent out three winners. Cruz, who will forever be associated with the great Silent Witness (2003-04), added a third trophy with Peniaphobia (2015). Yiu trained a couple of legends himself in Fairy King Prawn (1999) and Sacred Kingdom (2007, 2009). 

In the 18 runnings at its current distance, only five winners went off as the favorite. Four sprang double-digit upsets. 

While 12 of the 18 were exiting the local prep, the Jockey Club Sprint (G2), only three turned the double. The next most productive stepping stone is Japan’s Sprinters (G1). Aside from Lord Kanaloa’s back-to-back scores at home, Danon Smash was runner-up in the Sprinters, and Hong Kong-based Lucky Nine (2011) was a tough-trip fifth in his excursion to Nakayama.

Only four of 18 winners were coming off unplaced efforts; 14 recorded a top-three finish in their prior start. 

Half of the 18 winners were drawn around the middle, and five broke toward the outside. Posts 1-4 have delivered just one winner apiece. 

Storylines for Hong Kong Sprint

Ka Ying Rising out to enhance huge reputation 

By lowering Sacred Kingdom’s course record in the Jockey Club Sprint in almost nonchalant style, Ka Ying Rising has raised expectations sky-high going into his first Group 1 test. He’s won seven straight since immaturity contributed to his only losses, and even those were a pair of seconds. 

Trainer David Hayes has been around top-class horses in his storied career, so his palpable excitement speaks volumes as he plots out future targets. Ka Ying Rising is inspiring thoughts of stretching out for the Jan. 31 Hong Kong Classic Mile, but Hayes told the Idol Horse podcast that he’d rather not try him over as far as the Hong Kong Derby. Indeed, The Everest in Australia looms as his long-range goal for 2025. But first he’s got to get past Sunday.

California Spangle goes for rare HKIR double

California Spangle was a giant-killer once before, when toppling the mighty Golden Sixty in the 2022 Hong Kong Mile (G1). Cruz’s multiple Group 1 veteran has been giving weight to Ka Ying Rising in their recent meetings, and he’ll hope that level weights will make a difference in the rematch.

If California Spangle can conjure up the upset here, he’d achieve the rare feat of winning two different Hong Kong International Races. Japan’s Maurice famously captured the Mile in 2015 and the Hong Kong Cup (G1) in 2016. France’s Jim and Tonic turned a double in the early years, winning the Mile’s about seven-furlong predecessor, the Hong Kong International Bowl (G2), in 1998 and the Cup the following year. 

Helios Express has more to offer in sprints

After winning the first two legs of Hong Kong’s Four-Year-Old Series earlier this year, the Classic Mile and Classic Cup, Helios Express wound up eighth in the Hong Kong Derby. Now he’s reverted to his more natural wheelhouse as a sprinter this term. Although he’s settled for minor awards behind Ka Ying Rising in both of his tune-ups, the powerful closer could still be building up to his peak for two-time Sprint winner John Size. In any event, Helios Express has more upside than most, outside of Ka Ying Rising.

Can Japan strike again?

Lord Kanaloa’s son Satono Reve was somewhat disappointing as the favorite in his Group 1 debut in the Sprinters, trudging on in a one-paced seventh behind Lugal and Toshin Macau. Yet it might be too simplistic to take the result at face value. A tearaway early leader through an opening half-mile in :43.1 made for an unusual race shape, and the set-up here should be more typical. Satono Reve had won his prior three in a row to stamp himself as a serious up-and-comer for the high-percentage Noriyuki Hori, and he picks up Joao Moreira. 

Recommendation marks HKIR debut for Ciaron Maher

High-profile Australian trainer Ciaron Maher will have his first runner here in the form of Recommendation. Not quite among the top rank of a deep sprint scene at home, Recommendation is a four-time Group 3 winner who’s nevertheless mixed it up at a higher level on occasion. He was beaten a grand total of a couple of lengths when sixth in the Feb. 24 Oakleigh Plate H. (G1) (where future Royal Ascot star Asfoora was ninth, carrying nine more pounds), and he was not disgraced in eighth in the Sept. 27 Manikato (G1). Back in January, Recommendation was just denied in a three-way photo with the likes of Southport Tycoon and Veight in the Australia (G2). 

Starlust, Nobals hope to rewrite the stats

Starlust has two strikes against him in this race, from a stats perspective, as a European and a three-year-old. Nor does his narrow 33-1 upset of the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint instill confidence as he enters the lion’s den here. Yet as crafty trainer Ralph Beckett points out, Starlust is at his best on flat tracks and especially around a turn. He might also warrant an upgrade for being half-Australian, as a son of multiple Group 1-winning sprinter Zoustar.

Nobals is another staring into the historical abyss as a U.S. shipper, and his 2023 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint score looks like an even greater outlier with the passage of time. But he has recently regained top form for Larry Rivelli, albeit over the Woodbine Tapeta, when beating Canadian champion Patches O’Houlihan in the Kennedy Road (G2). 

More analysis to come following Thursday’s final declarations.