2024 Hong Kong Vase: Trends and storylines

Unlike the other three Hong Kong International Races, the about 1 1/2-mile Hong Kong Vase (G1) remains a happy hunting ground for invaders. The trend is expected to continue in Sunday’s renewal at Sha Tin.

Hong Kong Vase trends

Europeans have won 22 of 30 runnings, but to be precise, it’s historically been the French more so than the British or Irish. The tone was set straightaway when Red Bishop won the inaugural Vase in 1994, the first of 11 triumphs for France. Andre Fabre is himself responsible for three, from Borgia (1999) to the two latest French heroes, Flintshire (2014) and Junko (2023).

REILLY: 2024 Hong Kong International Races: Early look at the main players

British-based horses captured the Vase eight times, including Godolphin’s Mastery (2010), who is officially labeled as a United Arab Emirates representative. But the Union Jack had greater success in the first dozen years than the last dozen. Britannia hasn’t ruled the Vase since Red Cadeaux (2012).

In the past decade, Ireland has joined the honor roll thanks to the Aidan O’Brien-trained duo of Highland Reel (2015, 2017) and Mogul (2020). They are also the only two to win the Vase as three-year-old males. Their three wins give the Irish the most momentum of late among the Europeans. 

But the hottest country of all in recent years is Japan, victorious in four of the past eight editions. The Japanese claim an overall tally of five going back to Stay Gold (2001). Their current strike rate began when Satono Crown (2016) dethroned Highland Reel. Glory Vase (2019, 2021) and Win Marilyn (2022) turned it into a trend. 

Win Marilyn brought the number of female winners up to five. Two of them were the French three-year-old fillies Vallee Enchantee (2003) and Daryakana (2009). 

As that summary illustrates, Hong Kong runners have found it difficult to defend their home turf in the Vase. Since the celebrated Indigenous (1998), only Dominant (2013) and Exultant (2018) have stemmed the tide. 

Since the Vase was elevated to international Group 1 status in 2000, favorites have won six times. But eight winners went off at 8-1 or higher, five of them at double-digits. 

Over the same 24-year time frame, nine winners were rebounding from unplaced efforts. Seven won their prior starts, and eight had placed.

It’s generally better to be drawn at least in the middle or wider. In all, 17 of 30 winners (and 12 of the last 20) broke from post 7 or further out. No winner has broken from the rail, but posts 3 and 4 combined have produced nine winners.

Storylines for the Hong Kong Vase

Without a Fight on the comeback trail

No Southern Hemisphere-based runner has won the Vase so far, but Without a Fight is a European export who’s already made an historic impact in Australia. The first horse in 22 years to turn the Caulfield Cup (G1)/Melbourne Cup (G1) double in 2023, the Irish-bred sustained a tendon injury that kept him out of action for 12 months. But Without a Fight appeared to pick up where he left off with a third in the Mackinnon (aka Champions S.) (G1) to Via Sistina, who’s on a rampage at the moment. Via Sistina obliterated the Cox Plate (G1) in course-record time in her prior outing. 

Stellenbosch brings Japan Cup form by proxy

Japanese classic-winning filly Stellenbosch wasn’t beaten much by division leader Cervinia in her only previous attempt at this trip in the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) (G1). Cervinia has since finished fourth versus elite older males in the Japan Cup (G1), implying that Stellenbosch stacks up against a more eclectic group of elders here. The winner of the first fillies’ classic, the Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) (G1), and a better-than-appears third to Cervinia in the final classic, the Shuka Sho (G1), Stellenbosch has never been out of the trifecta. Her nine-pound weight break adds to the appeal. 

Luxembourg opts for Vase over Cup

O’Brien’s Luxembourg, who went so close versus champion Romantic Warrior in the Hong Kong Cup (G1) last December, instead sticks with the longer distance of the Vase. The four-time Group 1 star hasn’t been in the sharpest form of late, however, and more was expected of him than his sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) last time out. Yet his bold show at Sha Tin a year ago makes Luxembourg difficult to discount. Stablemate Continuous likewise is the embodiment of back class with subpar form at present, but eligible to find Sunday’s conditions more conducive to a better effort. 

Giavellotto employs the cutback angle

Campaigned as a stayer for nearly his entire life, British shipper Giavellotto has excelled in the vicinity of 1 3/4 miles. He’s captured the past two runnings of the Yorkshire Cup (G2) while placing in the 2022 St. Leger (G1) at Doncaster and the Irish St. Leger (G1) (to the sublime Kyprios) in his latest. But when he dropped down to 1 1/2 miles for the Princess of Wales’s (G2) during Newmarket’s July Festival, Giavellotto dominated in the manner of a horse with greater range than first suspected. Trainer Marco Botti has noted that the five-year-old was in the form of his life this season, and now he looks for another big win on the cutback. 

France relies on veteran Iresine, up-and-coming Marquisat 

France has two prime contenders at totally different stages of their careers. Seven-year-old Iresine is the proven Group 1 performer with loads of experience, while four-year-old Marquisat is just warming up for the maestro Fabre.

Iresine is particularly admirable for his consistency. Not only is he 15-for-24 lifetime, but the son of Manduro has finished in the top four 23 times. The lone exception was his ninth behind world champion Equinox in last year’s Japan Cup. Iresine has also demonstrated unusual versatility. His wins span the 2022 Prix Royal-Oak (G1) for stayers and the 2023 Prix Ganay (G1) for the about 1 5/16-mile set, and he’s a two-time winner of the Prix Foy (G2) at this distance. 

Marquisat, who has placed to Iresine and Goliath, respectively, in the past two runnings of the Prix du Conseil de Paris (G2), has also traded decisions with last year’s Vase hero (and stablemate) Junko. Off that evidence, the Godolphin color-bearer was well below form in his Group 1 debut in the Grosser Preis von Bayern (G1) last out, where he was a distant fifth as the favorite. 

Fourth time the charm for Dubai Honour?

Dubai Honour has made his career by going on foreign junkets for William Haggas, notably sweeping the 2023 Ranvet (G1) and Queen Elizabeth (G1) in Australia. He ran well in defeat in his first two appearances here – a close fourth to Loves Only You in the 2021 Hong Kong Cup and third to Romantic Warrior in the 2023 QEII Cup (G1) – but he was only seventh in the April 28 renewal of the QEII Cup. Dubai Honour apparently prefers going longer these days, as indicated by his European Group 1 breakthrough in the June 30 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (G1), and he’ll get his first opportunity to stretch out here in his fourth visit to Sha Tin. 

More analysis to come following Thursday’s final declarations.

Check out additional HKIR coverage here:

2024 Hong Kong Cup: Trends and storylines

2024 Hong Kong Mile: Trends and storylines

2024 Hong Kong Sprint: Trends and storylines