2024 Kentucky Derby Brisnet Speed Rating Report

From 2012-2021, nine of 10 Kentucky Derby (G1) winners registered triple-digit Brisnet Speed ratings prior to the 1 1/4-mile race, but the last two winners, 80-1 Rich Strike and 15-1 Mage, failed to meet the threshold.

At least Mage was close, registering a 99 Speed figure in the final prep, but Rich Strike came out of nowhere with a career-best 95 number.

Speed ratings remain an important tool, identifying the fastest horses in any field, and six horses in Saturday’s 150th running of the Kentucky Derby have achieved a tripe-digit Speed rating.

Here are the two most recent Speed ratings, ranked by the top last-out number, for the 2024 Kentucky Derby field (excluding international runners).

Takeaways

Fierceness has run the fastest races, generating a 112 Speed rating for a smashing victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last fall, and he rolled to a 13-length decision in the Florida Derby (G1) when posting the top last-out figure. Trained by two-time Kentucky Derby winner Todd Pletcher and ridden by three-time winner John Velazquez, Fierceness will bring speed to the 20-horse starting gate, leading all the way in the last start, but he showed tractability when racing up close during the opening stages of the Juvenile.

Resilience and Society Man, the 1-2 finishers in the Wood Memorial (G2), rank second and third. 

After breaking his maiden and finishing fourth in a deep Risen Star (G2) to open 2024, Resilience moved forward with first-time blinkers in the Wood, drawing off to a 2 1/4-length decision, and the son of two-time Kentucky Derby-winning sire Into Mischief will enter on the upswing for Bill Mott, who won the 2019 Kentucky Derby via disqualification with Country House. 

Society Man advanced to second entering the far turn of the Wood and held his position to the wire while never threatening the winner, surprising at 106-1 odds. Considering he was exiting a slower maiden triumph (85 Speed rating) and has never won at two turns, the gelding faces the possibility of a regression after a 17-point increase to his career-best number.

Sierra Leone overcame a slow pace and a wide trip to gamely win the Risen Star, and his Speed ratings progressed nicely when registering his first triple-digit number in a convincing Blue Grass (G1) win. The late runner is a candidate to keep improving for Chad Brown.

Since registering an 89 Speed rating for winning the Smarty Jones S. on New Year’s Day, Catching Freedom’s Speed ratings have increased nicely in a pair of starts, and the fast-closing colt will look to keep advancing for Brad Cox, who won the 2021 Kentucky Derby via disqualification with Mandaloun.

Unraced at two, Just a Touch chased a fast pace before surging to a clear lead in midstretch of the Blue Grass. And while he couldn’t withstand the late charge of Sierra Leone, the lightly raced colt received his first triple-digit Speed rating finishing a clear second. That also marked his first start at two turns and on a fast track, and Just a Touch may have more to offer in the Kentucky Derby for Cox.

Honor Marie exits a respectable second in the Louisiana Derby (G2), netting a 99 Speed rating, and the Grade 2 juvenile winner at Churchill Downs also merits respect from a Speed rating perspective.

Good luck in Kentucky Derby 150!