2024 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe: Top storylines

Sunday’s 103rd Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) lacks a standout on paper, making for a contentious renewal at ParisLongchamp.

Indeed, the biggest talking point in the build-up has been about the horses who aren’t here, whether by definition or design. 

Here are my main storylines going into the Arc:

Calandagan, Goliath ineligible as geldings

While top three-year-old colts City of Troy and Economics didn’t really have the Arc on their radar, Francis-Henri Graffard’s stars Calandagan and Goliath would have aimed for this prize if they weren’t geldings. 

The Arc maintains the traditional idea of establishing the championship qualities of prospective breeding stock, so by definition, geldings need not apply. This year, that’s become more of a hot-button topic after Goliath dominated the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth (G1) and Royal Ascot romper Calandagan pushed City of Troy to set a course record in the Juddmonte International (G1). 

Goliath’s recent setback may have affected his participation in any event, but that hasn’t dampened the overall controversy. The governing authorities at France Galop are in serious discussion about the future of this restriction. 

The absence of such highly-rated performers is worth keeping in mind in assessing the Arc field. 

Sosie, Look de Vega vie for favoritism

Antepost bettors have been locked onto the leading French-based three-year-old colts. Carlos and Yann Lerner’s Look de Vega was the longtime Arc favorite in the aftermath of his Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) (G1) victory, until Sosie toppled him in their course-and-distance prep in the Sept. 15 Prix Niel (G2). 

Sosie then took over the mantle of favoritism. The son of 2009 Arc hero Sea the Stars enters on the upswing for Andre Fabre, who’s trained a record eight Arc winners. The victor of the Grand Prix de Paris (G1) two starts back, Sosie is unbeaten at this course and at this distance. 

Yet in the past couple of days, bettors have again warmed to Look de Vega, who is now vying to reclaim his position at the head of the market. News of a terrific workout apparently inspired a forgiving mood about his third in the Niel and sparked optimism about a better effort on Sunday. 

By Friday, Sosie was shading Look de Vega again. 

The key question, though, is how much stock to put in the French Derby anyway. Look de Vega won on heavy going that arguably undermined a number of his rivals. Sosie, who was third in that about 1 5/16-mile classic, is an entirely different proposition going about 1 1/2 miles. Even granting that Look de Vega will be fitter, is there any compelling reason to believe he’ll be stronger than Sosie over this distance?

Niel runner-up Delius, who wasn’t fully cranked either, has reason to improve too. And unlike Look de Vega, Delius is proven at the distance. The caveat about the Jean-Claude Rouget pupil is that he was also under consideration for the Melbourne Cup (G1), implying that he’s more of a grinding stayer.

Still, however you parse the Niel alumni, my suspicion is that the deepest three-year-old form on offer came elsewhere — in the Irish Champion (G1) at Leopardstown.

Shin Emperor the right formula for Japan?

Japanese shipper Shin Emperor was an eye-catching third in the Irish Champion, edging Aidan O’Brien prepper Los Angeles, in a race that had all the earmarks of a beneficial warm-up for both.

Trained by Yoshito Yahagi, whose Forever Young nearly scored an historic Kentucky Derby (G1) victory, Shin Emperor has raised hopes that he could be the one to win an elusive Arc for Japan. 

But he’s different from their typical contender: Shin Emperor is a French-bred full brother to 2020 Arc champion Sottsass. When Yahagi purchased the €2.1 million sales topper at Arqana’s August Yearling Sale in 2022, he was already envisioning a return to France one day. 

Although Shin Emperor validated his credentials at Leopardstown, despite a checkered passage and ring-rustiness off a 3 1/2-month break, my hang-up is about his form at home. He wasn’t exactly a superstar in Japan, where his signature win came in a Grade 3 as a juvenile. To be fair, Shin Emperor has run well in defeat since, notably when runner-up in last December’s Hopeful (G1) and a better-than-appears third in the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) (G1). 

From a pedigree perspective, I’ve had a sense that Shin Emperor may prefer turf with more ease in it than the lightning-quick Japanese tracks. His Irish Champion effort lends substance to that idea.

Nevertheless, past Japanese runners have brought far more robust portfolios to Paris, only to suffer varying degrees of heartbreaking losses. Triple Crown legends Orfevre and Deep Impact sting the most, and it’s a definite mental obstacle for me to see Shin Emperor succeed where such titans failed. My idea of Japan’s eventual Arc history-maker is a more charismatic individual. 

Another hang-up is that no mare has produced two Arc winners. Shin Emperor would make history twice over, for Japan and for his dam Starlet’s Sister, if he wins. 

In another potentially significant parallel, remember that Sottsass placed third in the 2019 Arc as a sophomore and took top honors a year later at four. Might Shin Emperor do the same?

Los Angeles ready to steal the limelight?

After laboring in the shadow of sensational stablemate City of Troy, Los Angeles has quietly emerged as Ballydoyle’s number one Arc contender. With O’Brien touting him as such, his price has shortened, and the value is likely gone.

Yet there’s a lot to appreciate about this reliable son of Camelot, even if he is more workmanlike than brilliant. Los Angeles has beaten solid yardsticks in his big wins over 1 1/2 miles this season: Sunway in the Irish Derby (G1) and fellow Ballydoyle runner Illinois in the Great Voltigeur (G2).

Sunway hasn’t won since last October’s Criterium International (G1), but he is often thereabouts. The David Menuisier trainee has the vibe of a possible exotics bomb, currently trading between 33-1 and 40-1. 

Illinois, as the runner-up also in the Grand Prix de Paris, gives Los Angeles collateral form with Sosie. Considering that Los Angeles was conceding Illinois two pounds in the Great Voltigeur, he stacks up well with Sosie. Los Angeles has also raided France successfully before, when landing last year’s Criterium de Saint-Cloud (G1).

Moreover, Los Angeles has bona fide excuses for his only career losses. Burned up by the strong pace in the Derby (G1) at Epsom, he did well to place third behind the patiently-ridden City of Troy. His only other reverse came in the 1 1/4-mile Irish Champion, where he was given a very quiet ride with no sort of early position, and he lengthened stride belatedly. Note that Los Angeles finished faster than Shin Emperor according to the sectionals, covering his last three furlongs in :36.97 compared to :37.17 for the Japanese colt. 

O’Brien had said in advance that he was using the Irish Champion as a stepping stone to the Arc. Back up to his optimal distance, and positioned with greater intent, Los Angeles has every right to turn the tables on Shin Emperor. 

There remains the question of whether Los Angeles has the finesse to become the first O’Brien three-year-old to win the Arc. Both of his Arc winners, Dylan Thomas (2007) and Found (2016), were four-year-olds. 

That stat may be the best thing going for the other Ballydoyle entrant, Continuous, who aims to move forward off a disappointing third in the Sept. 15 Prix Foy (G2). Last year’s St Leger (G1) and Great Voltigeur romper was a sneaky fifth in the 2023 Arc, but he’s drawn much worse here in post 14. As a son of Heart’s Cry, he too holds some vicarious rooting interest for Japan. 

Al Riffa sports serious credentials, Japanese interest 

The Joseph O’Brien-trained Al Riffa is perhaps the nearest approximation to a Japanese hopeful without actually coming from there. Co-owned by Masaaki Matsushima, the well-regarded son of Wootton Bassett will be ridden by the legendary Yutaka Take. 

Al Riffa brings serious credentials to bear as the close runner-up to City of Troy in the July 6 Eclipse (G1) and as the dominant winner of the Aug. 11 Grosser Preis von Berlin (G1). That marked a persuasive first attempt at the Arc distance. The 2021 edition of that race featured two future Arc winners: Alpinista (2022) and that fall’s shocker Torquator Tasso.  

Moreover, during his sophomore campaign, Al Riffa was a bang-up second in the Prix Guillaume d’Ornano (G2) to Ace Impact, last year’s unbeaten Arc champion. If Al Riffa hadn’t picked up a stone bruise that ruled him out of the 2023 Irish Champion, he could have a gaudier resume. But he already hinted of massive potential in the 2022 Vincent O’Brien National (G1), winning despite being an unfurnished two-year-old far from his physical peak. 

Bluestocking supplemented after Vermeille

Juddmonte’s hardy filly Bluestocking wasn’t originally made eligible for the Arc, but her breakout season has prompted connections to stump up the €120,000 supplemental fee. 

Runner-up to Goliath in the King George and fourth to City of Troy in the Juddmonte, both on ground a bit firm for her, the Ralph Beckett trainee has scored her Group 1 wins in distaff company on rain-softened tracks. The clincher for her Arc candidacy was her battling victory in the Prix Vermeille (G1), by far the fastest of the Sept. 15 trials. Bluestocking repelled Aventure in 2:31.53, compared to the slowly-run Foy (2:34.15) and Niel (won by Sosie in 2:34.33). 

While very similar conditions on Sunday are liable to bring out the best in Bluestocking, she doesn’t have quite the panache of most Arc heroines. The Camelot filly has also had a pretty busy time of late, which I wrongly imagined might catch up with her in the Vermeille. As she comes back three weeks again after a demanding race, might it tell on her now?

Aventure, like Sosie a Wertheimer homebred by Sea the Stars, has the advantage of being fresher. The Christophe Ferland pupil also gets the maximum weight concession as a sophomore filly. Yet this smacks of a roll of the dice only because of her Vermeille near-miss, not the result of long-term planning. On the other hand, that could be a total red herring in an open-looking year. Aventure showed budding star quality in the June 2 Prix du Royaumont (G3) at Chantilly, her first opportunity at this trip. 

Survie, the other three-year-old filly, had been admirably consistent until her seventh in the Vermeille. That was her first start back from a two-month break for Nicholas Clement. Previously denied by just a head in the Prix de Diane (French Oaks) (G1), Survie can claim a course-and-distance score in the July 13 Prix de Malleret (G2). But she can’t boast a flashy win on the order of Aventure. 

Fabre vouches for Mqse de Sevigne

If Mqse de Sevigne is the poster child for never winning by much, the Baron Edouard De Rothschild homebred deserves a medal for scraping her way to five Group 1 trophies. She could be underestimated for that very reason, especially when she appears all out to edge lesser female rivals. The Siyouni mare will need every ounce of that resilience to overcome the far outside post 16 in her first try at the distance. 

Yet no less an authority than Fabre has laid out the grand plan to point her for the Arc, fully believing in her stamina. Her half-brother Meandre was a multiple Group 1 winner at about 1 1/2 miles, including the 2011 Grand Prix de Paris, and a three-time Arc also-ran. 

Mqse de Sevigne’s best talking point for the Arc is her victory over males in the May 26 Prix d’Ispahan (G1), defeating Horizon Dore and Haya Zark. The gelding Horizon Dore gives her some useful collateral form, having placed third to Auguste Rodin and Zarakem in the Prince of Wales’s (G1) at Royal Ascot. 

Zarakem has been hit-or-miss this season, dependent upon falling into the right sort of race flow. He didn’t find that sweet spot in the Juddmonte International, fading to 11th behind City of Troy. 

Up-and-coming trainer Jerome Reynier has said that Zarakem will come from farther back in the Arc, as he did at Royal Ascot, and that could make all the difference. Note that the Zarak colt picks up a new rider in Cristian Demuro, who rode both Sottsass and Ace Impact to Arc glory. 

Will the ground dry out enough for Fantastic Moon?

German champion Fantastic Moon is on weather watch, needing the forecast northerly wind to kick in and dry out a course that’s absorbed rain this week. But showers are expected to materialize on Sunday morning. Connections have warned that they’ll scratch if the ground is too soft and reroute him to the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1). 

If Fantastic Moon gets the green light, he’d be worth a look as last year’s Deutsches Derby (G1) and Prix Niel winner who recently added the Grosser Preis von Baden (G1). His only loss at this distance was an 11th in the 2023 Arc. 

Conversely, Sevenna’s Knight and Haya Zark are happy for it to stay on the soft side. 

Sevenna’s Knight, the third of Fabre’s trio, is a classy stayer who’s best at upwards of 1 7/8 miles. The son of Camelot needs slower going to bring his stamina into play going about 1 1/2 miles at this level and to dull the pace of the top contenders. Unless the ground turns a lot worse than expected and it devolves into a total war of attrition, it’s difficult to see him getting involved. Sevenna’s Knight is probably one to aim for the Melbourne Cup in another year. 

Mudlark Haya Zark is completely ground-dependent. Although he garnered the 2023 Prix d’Hedouville (G3) at this course and distance, the son of Zarak has been more effective going shorter. His marquee win came as a 19-1 shot in the April 28 Prix Ganay (G1), where he just lasted in a blanket finish. Al Riffa was among the bunch as a comeback fourth. 

Stay tuned for more Arc coverage!