2025 Belmont Stakes Festival: International form in Friday's Belmont Gold Cup, Just a Game

Most of the international formlines at Saratoga this weekend come courtesy of horses who have already raced here. We’ll take a look at two making their U.S. debuts in graded stakes on Friday, German shipper Flatten the Curve in the Belmont Gold Cup (G2) and Resolute Racing’s new recruit A Lilac Rolla in the Just a Game (G1).

Belmont Gold Cup (G2): Flatten the Curve

A cursory look at Flatten the Curve’s past performances would suggest that he’s a thoroughly exposed six-year-old with a 6-for-38 career record. But you might as well ignore his first 34 races because he’s a new animal since leaving his native France and joining trainer Henk Grewe in Cologne.

Grewe’s approach has worked wonders for Flatten the Curve, who has morphed into a 4-for-4 win machine for his new yard. By Zarak and out of a Teofilo mare, he’s bred on the productive Dubawi/Galileo cross. It took the change in scenery for him to express those bloodlines on the racecourse.

This race has been the plan for Flatten the Curve since he secured an automatic entry via the Oleander-Rennen (G2). That same prize over two metric miles at Berlin was the launching pad for Belmont Gold Cup heroes Red Cardinal (2017) and Loft (2022), and Flatten the Curve will bid to make it three scores for Germany. The Belmont Gold Cup comes with the perk of a guaranteed spot in the Melbourne Cup (G1), a “Golden Ticket” to Australia’s famed two-mile handicap on Nov. 4. 

Perhaps the biggest question mark is whether Flatten the Curve can adapt to the much tighter course that he’ll encounter on Saratoga’s inner turf. Grewe believes that his victory at Nantes last October answers that question, but I’m not entirely sure that it’s definitive. Flatten the Curve prevailed in a slog going about 2 5/16 miles on heavy going in a handicap, edging a non-Thoroughbred rival.

On the plus side, Flatten the Curve has been tactically flexible for regular rider Thore Hammer Hansen. He rallied from further back at Nantes and in his black-type debut in the Nov. 2 Silbernes Pferd (G3). Favored in his Hoppegarten reappearance, he stalked the leader and rolled to a three-length verdict in the April 20 Altano-Rennen, his tune-up for the Oleander-Rennen. 

Flatten the Curve went off as the slight 2-1 second choice in the Oleander-Rennen back at Hoppegarten, where he had to overcome traffic. Picking up determinedly once he split rivals, he won in a head-bob from the Irish mare Enfranchise. A sometime hurdler, Enfranchise was coming off a second to staying great Kyprios in the Vintage Crop S. at Navan. 

Another form tie-in comes from the beaten favorite in the Oleander-Rennen, fourth-placer Lordano, the next-out winner of a Group 2 at Baden-Baden. Last fall, the reliable Lordano placed third in the Preis von Europa (G1) to Godolphin’s globetrotter Rebel’s Romance, who went on to regain his Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) title.

Flatten the Curve scored on good ground in his latest, but he has raced on softish going more often. At least he won’t mind the rain in the forecast, and more might help his cause. 

Just a Game (G1): A Lilac Rolla the newest European flavor

Bill Mott unveils A Lilac Rolla, the runner-up in last year’s Irish 1000 Guineas (G1), in a loaded renewal of the Just a Game. Given the depth on display, let’s note the others with international form before focusing on the stateside debutante.

Choisya is the international invader, but U.S. fans have a read on her through the Jenny Wiley (G1) at Keeneland. Her narrow win was a shade controversial because she drifted across Excellent Truth’s path, and the stewards allowed the result to stand.

In any event, Choisya has improved markedly from her past European form for Simon and Ed Crisford. The Night of Thunder mare signaled her transformation during the Dubai Carnival this winter, when she turned the Cape Verdi (G2)/Balanchine (G2) double. Both came at the expense of Godolphin odds-on favorites, notably Cinderella’s Dream in the latter. The Jenny Wiley furnished more proof of her newfound status.

Excellent Truth was also making her U.S. debut in the Jenny Wiley, but as a European expat for Chad Brown. John Stewart’s Resolute Racing went on a spending spree to collect quality turf horses, and she cost more than $1.6 million at Arqana last December. Previously based in France, Excellent Truth was a Group 3 winner in 2023, but she displayed Group 1 ability last summer as the runner-up to the high-caliber Mqse de Sevigne in the Prix Rothschild (G1). That was her last start until the Jenny Wiley. A trouble-free trip, and possibly softer ground, should help. 

Wathnan Racing’s Heredia likewise makes her second U.S. start for Graham Motion, following a third in the Beaugay (G3) off a 19-month layoff. The Dark Angel mare had not raced since placing third to Inspiral and Mqse de Sevigne in the 2023 Sun Chariot (G1). Special Wan’s Irish form has receded into the background, since she’s been a U.S. resident since last year, but note that she was well regarded long before breaking through in the March 1 Honey Fox (G3).

Now A Lilac Rolla seeks to continue the theme of gilding her resume on this side of the pond. Another expensive Resolute acquisition like Excellent Truth, she commanded more than $1.3 million at Tattersalls in December. By successful young sire Harry Angel (a son of the prolific Dark Angel), she is out of a Red Ransom mare from the family of multiple Group 1 star Bahri. 

A Lilac Rolla won her first three starts for high-percentage trainer Paddy Twomey in Ireland. At two, she recovered from a slightly tardy start to win her six-furlong premiere convincingly at Cork. She stepped up to seven furlongs at the Curragh and outdueled Ballydoyle’s future celebrity Opera Singer, who would end the season as Europe’s champion juvenile filly. 

Although Twomey was plotting toward a lucrative sales race on Irish Champions Weekend, A Lilac Rolla went through a growth spurt. That prompted him to give her time, and he put her away for the year. 

Not spotted until the spring of 2024, A Lilac Rolla stayed undefeated with a hard-fought tally in the Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial (the Priory Belle) (G3). Twomey was worried about how she’d negotiate the heavy going, putting her workmanlike effort in context.

A Lilac Rolla lost her perfect record as she advanced into Group 1 company at a mile, but she placed both times. In the Irish 1000 Guineas, she tracked the leaders on the inside and finished well for runner-up honors, beating a ring-rusty Opera Singer.

Venturing across to England for the first time in the Falmouth (G1), A Lilac Rolla again raced in a handy position and remained in contention until outkicked late by multiple Group 1 winner Porta Fortuna. She salvaged a dead-heat third (with the older Rogue Millennium) in a blanket finish for the minor awards.

Twomey believed that Newmarket might not have been her favorite course, and he was looking ahead to other big-race targets. The Matron (G1) back at Leopardstown would have made sense, while he also mentioned the possibility of the Prix de la Foret (G1) versus older males on Arc Day. Unfortunately, she didn’t race again as a sophomore, and she’s just ready to resume here.

A Lilac Rolla’s nearly 11-month absence is the biggest challenge, although Mott has a healthy 29% strike rate with his imports. And she’s won first-up at two and three, admittedly not in as tough a spot. Still, her class, consistency, and upside make her a serious contender at 6-1 on the morning line.