Spot plays for the 2025 Saudi Cup day

Saturday is Saudi Cup day in Riyadh. Some of the world’s best thoroughbreds have converged on the Middle East to contend for massive purses. This makes for a racing extravaganza with full fields and plenty of challenges for handicappers.

Here, we’ll give you a few spot plays for the program. Let’s dive in, shall we?

Race #3 (Saudi Derby): #6 GOLDEN VEKOMA (9/2 ML)

This isn’t technically a Kentucky Derby points race, but it features several runners that could potentially get on the Derby trail. I’m going against the likely favorite, in favor of a runner that could have more room to grow.

#4 CYCLONE STATE (2-1 ML) ships from New York for Chad Summers, who had success going to the Middle East with top-tier sprinter Mind Your Biscuits several years ago. Simply put, though, I don’t think he’s beaten much at Aqueduct in his last three starts. He’s been left alone on the front end in those races, and the likelihood of him getting that sort of dream trip here seems slim.

Golden Vekoma, however, comes in off of a sharp score in the Group 3 UAE 2000 Guineas at Meydan. He’s shown a solid turn of foot, as well as an ability to sit a “stalk and pounce” trip that could prove fruitful here. He’s only got three starts to his credit, so further improvement could be in the offing. Add in that he’s probably not going to be favored, and I think there’s plenty to like.

Race #6 (Neom Turf Cup): #3 CALIF (12-1 ML)

#6 SHIN EMPEROR (8/5 ML) isn’t an awful favorite. He’s danced some big dances on multiple continents and exits a strong second in the Group 1 Japan Cup. My hesitation with him is that, while he almost always runs well, he hasn’t found a way to win since November of 2023. He might win, but 8/5 is too short for me to take.

 I’ll take a swing with Calif, who was last seen running sixth in the Group 1 Hong Kong Cup behind Romantic Warrior (who would be an odds-on favorite in this spot). He didn’t run awfully that day, and at his best, he’s a very strong horse. He won a Group 1 in Germany last summer and was a fairly close seventh in the Group 1 Dubai Turf, where he was beaten a bit more than four lengths. His best could win this, and for that reason, the likely price hits me as an overlay. 

Race #9 (Saudi Cup): #9 ROMANTIC WARRIOR (5/2 ML)

Yep, the guy who does picks on the Hong Kong feed is going with the Hong Kong horse in the big one. Hear me out.

I respect #5 FOREVER YOUNG (8/5 ML). He’s a legitimate favorite, he’s won over this track before, and it wouldn’t be shocking if he won again. I’m wondering, however, if this nine-furlong distance is just a hair shorter than his best. He wants to go very long, and while I generally prefer horses cutting back to ones stretching out, I’d certainly like him more if this was a bit longer.

Romantic Warrior, meanwhile, has shown he’s a top-class talent at anywhere from a mile to a mile and a quarter. He’s shown his quality with Group 1 wins in Hong Kong, Japan, and Dubai, and he tries something new here going to the dirt. Perhaps he may not be quite as good on dirt as he is on turf…but what if he doesn’t have to be? Would it be shocking if 85-90% of his turf form was good enough to win this?

Add in that his pedigree says dirt might not be an issue, and I think there’s plenty to like. Give me a proven Group 1 horse, in career-best form, at a non-favored price, and I’ll be pretty happy.