3 different budget plays for betting the 2020 Kentucky Derby

When betting the Kentucky Derby (G1), different types of wagers often require different budgets. The trifecta is usually more challenging (and expensive to play) than the exacta, while the superfecta and Super Hi-5 trump them both in complexity and cost.

The 2020 Kentucky Derby is a perfect example. On the one hand, #17 Tiz the Law (3-5 on the morning line) and #16 Honor A. P. (5-1) have emerged as standouts in the 1 1/4-mile race, which makes the exacta relatively straightforward. Tiz the Law looked like a beast winning the Belmont Stakes (G1) and Travers (G1), while Honor A. P. unleashed a powerful late rally to win the Santa Anita Derby (G1) by daylight.

Tiz the Law and Honor A. P. should both enjoy unencumbered trips from outside posts and figure to run first and second at short prices. I’ll give the edge to Tiz the Law, who earned a 115 Brisnet Speed rating after he sprinted the final quarter-mile of the 1 1/4-mile Travers in :24.53.

But beyond the two favorites, the field is wide open, which makes the trifecta and superfecta difficult to bet in a cost-effective manner.

Haskell (G1) winner #18 Authentic (8-1) is the third choice on the morning line, but 1 1/4 miles could stretch the limits of his stamina. Post 18 will also make it hard for the frontrunning colt to secure his customary position on the lead.

Others contenders appear evenly matched, with Travers third-place finisher #2 Max Player (30-1), Lecomte (G3) winner #3 Enforceable (30-1), Shared Belief S. victor #10 Thousand Words (15-1), Sam F. Davis (G3) winner #12 Sole Volante (30-1), and Haskell (G1) runner-up #16 Ny Traffic (20-1) offering a mixture of running styles and prices to consider in the competitive battle for third place.

I wouldn’t feel confident playing the trifecta and superfecta without spreading deep underneath, so to keep the cost down, I encourage bettors to play boldly in the top two slots of their exotic wagers. Don’t double the cost of your tickets by boxing Tiz the Law and Honor A. P. Take a stand and bet them cold, one over the other.

With this strategy in mind, here is how I recommend playing the Kentucky Derby, depending on the size of your budget.

$20 budget

$20 exacta: 17 with 16

$50 budget

$8 trifecta: 17 with 16 with 2,3,10,12,15,18 ($48)
$2 trifecta: 17 with 16 with 18

$100 budget

$1 superfecta: 17 with 16 with 2,3,10,12,15,18 with 2,3,5,10,12,13,15,18 ($42)
$1 superfecta: 17 with 16 with 2,3,5,10,12,13,15,18 with 2,3,10,12,15,18 ($42)
$1 superfecta: 17 with 16 with 18 with 2,3,5,10,12,13,15 ($7)
$1 superfecta: 17 with 16 with 2,3,5,10,12,13,15 with 18 ($7)
$1 superfecta: 17 with 16 with 18 with 2,3 ($2)

Good luck!