5 Key Breeders’ Cup Betting Trends for Turf Races

The Breeders’ Cup is one of the year’s most anticipated events, with its seven turf races offering thrills for fans and challenges for bettors looking to score on these championship days. Its seven turf races feature the sport’s top horses, with America’s best sharing the track with international stars. 

With the unpredictable nature of turf racing, coupled with the international talent it draws, identifying winning trends can provide an edge when placing bets. From European dominance to post-position advantages, understanding these patterns is key. By analyzing the winners from the past decade of Breeders’ Cup history, we’ll uncover some of the most significant trends that have shaped Breeders’ Cup turf races, offering you valuable insights into past performances and what to look out for when betting.

In addition to the usual slate of wagers, from win bets to superfectas, the 2024 Breeders’ Cup wagering menu will include a $3 All-Turf Pick 3 on Friday, covering the three turf races on Future Stars Friday: 

• Race 6: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1) 
• Race 8: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) 
• Race 10: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) 

On Breeders’ Cup Saturday, Del Mar is offering an All-Turf Pick 4 is a 50-cent minimum wager and combines the day’s four turf races: 

• Race 5: Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) 
• Race 7:  Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) 
• Race 9: Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) 
• Race 11: Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) 

As you plan your wagers for these two championship days, these five trends can help you narrow down your choices for each race as well as those multi-race wagers. 

Five Trends to Consider

Fade Kentucky Downs winners – Horses who have won at Kentucky Downs have not won at the Breeders’ Cup. For example, since 2014, six of the 10 previous winners of the Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint Stakes (G2) competed in the Turf Sprint and all finished up the track, with Gear Jockey’s sixth in the 2023 edition the best showing. 

Cogburn exited that Kentucky Downs stakes with a 3 1/4-length victory over a field that included 2023 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint victor Nobals, who finished fourth. The Steve Asmussen trainee has put in some sparkling performances in 2024, but recent history is not on his side. Most of the Turf Sprint winners have come into the five-furlong sprint with their most recent starts coming within four to eight weeks of their turn in the Breeders’ Cup. 

Nobals led into his 2023 Turf Sprint win with a final prep at Colonial Downs eight weeks prior to his turn at Santa Anita. 

Caravel won the 2022 Turf Sprint at Keeneland off a win in the Franklin Stakes (G3), also at Keeneland, just three weeks earlier. 

Golden Pal entered the 2021 Turf Sprint with a win in the Woodford Stakes (G2) at Keeneland as his last start prior to winning at Del Mar. 

Glass Slippers took the 2020 edition four weeks after a second-place finish at Longchamps, while Belvoir Bay won five months after a fourth-place finish in the Jaipur (G1) at Belmont Park. 

Stormy Liberal won consecutive editions of the Turf Sprint in 2017-18 off of starts at Del Mar and Belmont Park, the former four weeks earlier and the latter five months earlier. 

Obviously’s 2016 win came after a third in the City of Hope Mile (G2) at Santa Anita in early October. 

Mongolian Saturday took the 2015 Turf Sprint at Keeneland four weeks after a second in the Woodford (G3) at the same track. 

Bobby’s Kitten was third in the Woodbine Mile (G1) six weeks before trying and winning the 2014 Turf Sprint. 

On the other end of the spectrum, winners of the 1 1/2-mile Kentucky Turf Cup (G2) at Kentucky Downs have seen similar results in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, also a 12-furlong contest. 

Since 2014, four winners did not go on to compete in the Turf, while two-time winners Arklow (2018 and 2020) and Da Big Hoss (2015 and 2016) as well as Red Knight (2022) and Zulu Alpha (2019) all competed at Breeders’ Cup this same year. Of those four horses, only Arklow in 2018 and Zulu Alpha in 2019 have finished anywhere close to the top three, each finishing fourth. Those trends indicate that Grand Sonata, this year’s Kentucky Turf Cup winner, is a likely fade for this year’s Turf.

European Shippers

Give this year’s European horses a second look – European shippers like Emily Upjohn, 2021 Turf champion Rebel’s Romance, and Porta Fortuna, second in last year’s BC Juvenile Fillies Turf and Group 1 winner at Royal Ascot, are worth another look, especially given trainer Aidan O’Brien’s record in these races. O’Brien, who has 18 horses listed in this year’s Breeders’ Cup pre-entries, has 18 wins, with the majority coming in the Turf, including Auguste Rodin’s three-quarters of a length victory in 2023. 

Charlie Appleby has also found success at the Breeders’ Cup, amassing 10 wins since his first victory with Outstrip in 2013. He brings back Rebel’s Romance, the 2022 Turf winner, and adds Notable Speech, the 2000 Guineas victor, and Cinderella’s Dream, winner of the Belmont Oaks and Saratoga Oaks. The English trainer has won the last three editions of the Mile and has wins in five of the six Breeders’ Cup turf races. His starters merit consideration when building tickets, as he tends to bring horses that are ready to fire on Breeders’ Cup weekend.

Late Runners on Turf

Late runners dominate on turf – Of the last 10 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners, only one, Highland Reel in 2016, won going gate-to-wire. That means most winners made their run in the stretch to win, often coming from midpack or farther back and finding an open lane to rally late. European jocks like Ryan Moore and Frankie Dettori tend to have more experience with this type of riding style, so look for horses who have success with late rallies on turf. 

The same trends hold up with the Mile, the Filly & Mare Turf, the Juvenile Turf, and the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Rarely do horses take the lead from the gate and maintain it all the way to the wire. With these shorter distances, ranging from a mile to 10 furlongs, winners tended to come from off the pace, much like Turf winners, but sat closer to the pace early, with most positioned midpack or closer for the first half-mile to three-quarters, and then moving for the lead in the stretch. These races tend to be split between jocks like William Buick, Dettori, and Moore, while Irad Ortiz Jr. has found success in these races as well, with seven of his 20 Breeders’ Cup wins coming in turf races. 

Conversely, in the two five-furlong sprints, gate-to-wire performances are more likely than with the longer turf races. The Juvenile Turf Sprint has four of six winners who were on the lead at every call while the last 10 Turf Sprints have also had four gate-to-wire victors. With that in mind, look for horses who are close to the pace or on the lead in their previous starts when considering who to include in your betting plans for these sprints.

Key Post Positions

Post position can be key – The seven turf races on the Breeders’ Cup cards have had winners from all 14 post positions, but two have been the most successful. Post 5 has had nine winners while post 6 has had seven, with posts 1 and post 9 right behind with six each. Though these four have seen the most winners, each of the seven races has a smattering of winners from both inside and outside, with no trends showing up in either. However, posts 1-6 have the preponderance of winners at both sprint and route distances, with posts 9 and 11 also factoring into the numbers.

When considering who to bet on Breeders’ Cup Friday and Saturday, start with horses breaking from these posts. Combined with the right rider, these horses could be the key to winning big this year. 

Folly in Favorites

Favorites don’t always show up – Turf races tend to reward those with favorable trips who can bid for the lead late. Since 2014, favorites have fallen short of the winner’s circle more often than not at the Breeders’ Cup. Of the 66 turf races since 2014, 17 post-time favorites have won, a strike rate of just under 26%. However, favorites have finished second or third more often, with 21 of 66 favorites finishing in the top three; combine that with winning favorites and the horses who enter the gate at the shortest odds are finishing in the money at a rate of 58%. With that in mind, count on the favorite in each turf race factoring in exactas, trifectas, and superfectas.