5 storylines to follow in the Tampa Bay Derby

The Road to the Kentucky Derby continues Saturday, with the $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G2), a 1 1/16-mile event that has produced a pair of Kentucky Derby (G1) winners since 2007.

Tampa Bay Downs’ signature race has attracted a dozen entries for its 2020 renewal, so there’s plenty for racing fans and handicappers to consider.

Here are five storylines to follow in the Tampa Bay Derby.

1. The emergence of Sole Volante

#7 Sole Volante has shown steady improvement for trainer Patrick Biancone and took a big step forward in the Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay last month, when he rallied powerfully to win by 2 1/2 lengths, over two-time stakes winner Independence Hall.

Some will point out Sole Volante received a perfect pace setup, but he also finished fast and appeared to be full of run down the stretch. With a couple of triple-digit Brisnet Speed ratings under his belt, Sole Volante is already fast enough to be a Kentucky Derby contender. We’ll see if he can keep his momentum going Saturday.

2. Joseph looks to stay hot with Chance It

Up-and-coming trainer Saffie Joseph has been on fire this year. He has won at a 31% rate and has saddled seven stakes winners. One of those high-profile victories came courtesy of #4 Chance It, who battled to a narrow victory in the Mucho Macho Man S. at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 4. Behind him in third, two lengths behind, was Sole Volante.

Chance It’s most impressive victory came in the 1 1/16-mile Florida Sire In Reality S., his lone start around two turns, so it’s possible he’ll take another step forward in the Tampa Bay Derby. Not that he’ll need to step up much. He has already posted three triple-digit Brisnet Speed ratings.

3. Kiaran McLaughlin can go out a winner with Spa City

Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has won 41 Grade 1 races during his career, but he recently announced he’ll retire from training to work as an agent for star jockey Luis Saez. #2 Spa City figures to be one of McLaughlin’s final starters.

A Godolphin homebred, the improving son of Street Sense scored a fast maiden victory running 1 1/8 miles at Gulfstream on Feb. 8. He won by a length, with a 103 Brisnet Speed rating. McLaughlin has Spa City heading in the right direction, and a Tampa Bay Derby victory would be a nice way to wind down a successful training career.

4. Pletcher saddles three in search of record-extending victory

No trainer has enjoyed more success in the Tampa Bay Derby than Todd Pletcher, who has won the race five times since 2004, including three in a row from 2015-2017. In search of a record-extending sixth victory, Pletcher will saddle three starters Saturday—local maiden winner #1 Texas Swing, Gulfstream debut winner #5 Market Analysis, and 0-for-2 maiden #9 Unrighteous. The latter might appear overmatched at first glance, but in terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, he’s the fastest of the trio, off his runner-up effort behind Spa City on Feb. 8.

5. Velazquez made a choice

Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez guided both Texas Swing and Market Analysis to their maiden wins, and presumably could have ridden either colt in search of his third Tampa Bay Derby victory. Velazquez chose to stick with Market Analysis, who defeated the impressive next-out maiden winner Attachment Rate on Jan. 25.

Market Analysis has trained fast since his debut and figures to show improvement in his second start, but we won't know if Velazquez made the right decision until Saturday.

The Tampa Bay Derby is the 11th race on the Saturday card at Tampa Bay Downs, with post time scheduled for 5:32 p.m. ET.