5 trends to know for betting Woodbine turf racing in 2021

Though the start was delayed because of COVID-19 protocols in Canada, action at the 2021 Woodbine meet has been underway for two months, which gives us plenty of data to analyze for handicapping trends and tendencies.

Let’s crunch some numbers for Woodbine’s two turf courses and determine how we should bet, as the six-month meet marches toward its halfway point.

1. Fast times are common over the Woodbine turf

Did you know the vast majority of the course records at Woodbine have been set within the last 10 years? It’s common to see very fast times over the Woodbine lawns, where even claimers can post a rapid clocking.

On Sunday, a seven-furlong claimer over the main turf course finished in 1:21.64, while the one-mile Kind Edward S. (G2) over the same course produced a record-breaking time of 1:31.73.

View fast times with skepticism, and count on Brisnet Speed ratings to tell you whether a race was fast or just typical for Woodbine.

2. Speed doesn’t carry well

It’s hard to win in gate-to-wire fashion over either Woodbine grass course.

Just 15% of seven-furlong main-course sprints have been won by pacesetters this meet. At one mile over the inner turf course, the gate-to-wire win percentage is just 17%. And how about one mile over the main course? Pacesetters are winless in 10 starts.

Pretty much across the board, speed struggles over the Woodbine turf courses, which means stalkers and closers are the horses to favor.

3. Drawing the rail can be advantageous

Saving ground is an important strategy on grass, and it is a successful move at Woodbine.

Across all distances and both turf courses, the rail post has 20 wins from 114 starts (18%) at Woodbine this meet. Post 2, post 3, and post 4 have also produced winners at rates from 10-15%. The rail has been especially deadly in five-furlong dashes over the inner turf course, with five wins from 20 starts (25%).

4. Bet horses ridden by Gallardo

Jockey Antonio Gallardo has been busy in recent weeks, as he has split his time between Woodbine and Presque Isle Downs in Pennsylvania.

He has proven to be a star on the grass courses at Woodbine, with five wins from 24 starts (21%). If you bet all of his mounts equally, you would have a profit of 27%.

5. Watch out for MacRae and Krcmar trainees

When trainer Donald MacRae enters a horse to race on turf at Woodbine, it pays to pay attention.

Since the start of the meet, MacRae has five wins from 14 starts (36%) with turf runners, and betting them equally would have produced a 28% profit.

Zeljko Krcmar also boasts an impressive record over the Woodbine turf courses. Krcmar has four wins from 12 starts (33%) and another five runners have finished second or third. That’s a 75% in-the-money rate, and betting all of Krcmar’s starters would have produced a 190% profit.