6 trends to know for betting at Fair Grounds

The 2021-22 race meet is underway at Fair Grounds, with a quartet of Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers among the stakes-packed action spanning Nov. 25 through March 27.

Planning to place some wagers at Fair Grounds this winter? You’re not alone! To give you a winning edge, here are six handicapping tips to keep in mind this winter, based off trends from the 2020-21 Fair Grounds meet:

1. Favor inside posts in dirt sprints

According to statistics from Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances, it’s advantageous to start from an inside post when sprinting over the Fair Grounds main track. During the 2020-21 meet, the rail post won at an 18% clip in 5 1/2-furlong sprints and at a 19% rate in six-furlong dashes. Overall, the three innermost posts produced solid win percentages, while posts 8 and wider were less successful.

2. Avoid speed horses in grass races

Per the Brisnet data, speed doesn’t carry very well when running long over the Fair Grounds turf course. Over the course of the 2020-21 meet, only 7% of 1 1/16-mile grass races were won in gate-to-wire fashion, with the average winner rallying from more than four lengths behind at the first point of call. One-mile turf races were slightly kinder to speed, with pacesetters winning at a 19% clip, but the average winner still rallied from more than four lengths back at the first call.

3. Bet jockey Florent Geroux

James Graham (88-for-477, 18% wins) and Adam Beschizza (85-for-446, 19% wins) won more races than any other jockeys during the 2020-21 Fair Grounds meet. But in terms of win percentage, no jockey with more than 10 mounts performed better than Florent Geroux. Splitting his time between Fair Grounds and Oaklawn Park, Geroux compiled a stellar 44-for-162 (27%) record at Fair Grounds, including a 30-for-96 (31%) record on dirt.

4. Bet young horses trained by Brad Cox

According to data from StatsMaster, Eclipse-award winning trainer Brad Cox saddled a formidable group of young horses during the 2020-21 Fair Grounds meet. During the 2020 portion of the meet, Cox went 9-for-31 (29%) saddling juveniles, and during the 2021 portion—when those juveniles turned three years old—Cox sent them out to compile a 19-for-75 (25%) resume. Chief among them was Risen Star S. (G2) winner Mandaloun, who went on to finish second across the finish line in the 2021 Kentucky Derby (G1).

5. Watch for longshots trained by Wilson, Sharp, Delahoussaye, Hartman, and Delhomme

StatsMaster reveals a handful of trainers who performed well saddling longshots (8-1 or higher) during the 2020-21 Fair Grounds meet. Shane Wilson went 6-for-87 (7%) with such runners, winning more times than any other trainer while generating a profitable 12% return on investment. But Joe Sharp (5-for-13, 13% wins, 79% ROI), Glenn Delahoussaye (3-for-20, 15% wins, 58% ROI), Chris Hartman (3-for-17, 18% wins, 106% ROI), and Jeff Delhomme (2-for-7, 29% wins, 344% ROI) also compiled noteworthy and profitable resumes.

6. Turf races are often transferred to the main track

When heavy rain strikes Fair Grounds, turf races are often switched to the main track, sometimes for days at a time. Off-the-turf racing is part of the sport’s fabric at Fair Grounds, so handicappers should keep the weather in mind when planning their bets. Watch the forecasts to see if rain is in the offing. If it looks like grass races might be transferred to the main track, try to project which horses will appreciate the switch, or hold off analyzing the entries until race day comes and you can see which runners withdraw. The last thing you want is to be hurriedly restructuring your bets on race day.

Good luck, and enjoy the meet!