American Pharoah needs perfect storm to win 2015 Belmont Stakes

American Pharoah probably didn’t need the help, but a perfect storm played a part in washing away the chances of his main rivals in last Saturday’s Preakness.

In order to sweep the Triple Crown in the June 6 Belmont Stakes, American Pharoah needs another perfect storm. Not necessarily the kind that will bring a deluge of rain and turn the track in to a sea of slop, although that might help (again). 

No, what American Pharoah needs is a perfect confluence of circumstances, leading up to the Belmont and during the race itself, in order to win.

One of the reasons why it’s become so difficult to sweep the series is that the size of the Belmont field when a Triple Crown is on the line has become much larger in recent years. The 11 Triple Crown winners faced an average of 4.36 rivals in the 1 1/2-mile “Test of the Champion.” Generally speaking, today’s would-be aspirants often face 2-3 times as many saboteurs.

There have been a wide variety of factors that derailed every Triple Crown threat since 1979, but most can be lumped into a few categories.

Pre-race imperfection: Aside from the general weariness and fatigue associated with winning the first two legs, American Pharoah needs to avoid any additional mishaps. The Belmont-morning lameness of Spectacular Bid (1979), the lingering quarter-crack issues of Big Brown (2008), and the infirmities that kept I’ll Have Another (2012) from starting altogether are all musts-to-avoid.

Stumbling, fumbling: Several recent Triple Crown bid have arguably been lost at the start. War Emblem (2002) stumbled badly, Big Brown broke awkwardly, and California Chrome (2014) grabbed a quarter leaving the gate. American Pharoah needs a perfect start.