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Keeler Johnson's 2023 Picks and Plays third quarter ROI report
With three quarters down and one quarter remaining in 2023, it’s time to check in on the performance of my daily Picks and Plays and carryover analysis columns for TwinSpires Edge.
Racing
Catching My Eye: Mighty Hearts and Raw Talent at Keeneland
A fantastic card at Keeneland on Saturday was punctuated time and again by a triumphant favorite, winning each of the final six races, including the sensational $600,000 Queen Elizabeth II Cup (G1). The raw talent of freshman Dornoch and the gallant heart of both Lindy and First Mission were on full display.
Racing
Dubai World Cup winners in Breeders’ Cup Classic: Close, but no cigar
The relationship between the Dubai World Cup (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) was forged early on, with a pattern set by Hall of Famer Cigar.
Racing
First-crop sires: Second stakes winner for Maximus Mischief
TwinSpires.com will follow prominent first-crop sires whose two-year-olds are hitting the track this season. This installment is the third on 2018 Remsen (G2) winner Maximus Mischief.
Racing
Breeders' Cup Rankings 2023: Future Stars Friday
A handful of races will be held on the opening-day portion of the Breeders’ Cup World Thoroughbred Championships at Santa Anita on Nov. 3. European imports have endured a bevy of success in these tilts, especially in the events that have been contested on the turf, but my focus for this piece will be on the U.S.-based contenders.
Racing
Pedigree profile: Muth
When the speedy Muth successfully stretched out over 1 1/16 miles to dominate the American Pharoah (G1) at Santa Anita by 3 3/4 lengths, it came as no surprise to pedigree handicappers.
Racing
When chalky outcomes appears likely, consider the superfecta
Some bettors avoid playing races that seem likely to unfold in predictable fashion, because the payoffs are bound to be small. But sometimes the most likely outcome can pay surprisingly well, particularly if you embrace exotic wagers like the superfecta.
Racing
Catching My Eye: Keeneland Breeders' Cup preps from Saturday, Oct. 7
On Saturday, Keeneland had two "Win and You’re In” events, but connections used each of the five graded stakes as prep races for the first weekend in November.
Racing
Tournament Strategy: TwinSpires $2,500 NHC Qualifier Feeders Oct. 7 and 8
TwinSpires has a new handicapping tournament, the TwinSpires $5,000 NHC Qualifier, offering two seats to the National Horseplayers Championship, which will take place Nov. 25. In order to participate, you have to finish in the top 10% of one of the seven feeder tournaments, and there are two taking place this weekend. If you have a TwinSpires account, opt in to play on Oct. 7 or Oct. 8, 2023.
Racing
The Jury: Expert picks, bets and fades for Oct. 7, 2023 [VIDEO]
Racing analysts Ashley Anderson, James Scully and Scott Shapiro handicap Keeneland opening weekend and more! We have promo codes exclusively for our Jury viewers later into the show.
Wagering
Meet the Contenders: 2023 Champagne Stakes
Meet the horses running in the 2023 Champagne Stakes. For each horse, we're listing a pro, a con, and a rating of potential. The star rating of 1 to 5 represents opportunity to perform well.
Racing
Meet the Contenders: 2023 American Pharoah Stakes
Meet the horses running in the 2023 American Pharoah Stakes. For each horse, we're listing a pro, a con, and a rating of potential. The star rating of 1 to 5 represents opportunity to perform well.
Racing
The 2023 Breeders’ Futurity Tipsheet
A total of nine two-year-olds will go postward in the $600,000 Breeders’ Futurity S. (G1) on Saturday. The winner will receive an automatic berth to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Santa Anita on Nov. 3.
Racing
Presque Isle Downs Selections and Analysis for Thursday, Oct. 5, 2023
Dick Powell offers his selections and analysis for Thursday's card at Presque Isle Downs.
Racing
Meet the Contenders: 2023 Breeders' Futurity
Meet the horses running in the 2023 Breeders' Futurity. For each horse, we're listing a pro, a con, and a rating of potential. The star rating of 1 to 5 represents opportunity to perform well.
Racing
Catching my eye: Closing week of Churchill Downs’ September meet
Kevin Kilroy discusses a few standout horses that caught his eye on the closing weekend of Churchill Downs' September meet.
Racing
Betting Strategies: Building tickets with the market in mind
In terms of building multi-race tickets, we are betting into the races blindly, meaning we do not have any tote information about where the money is going and who might be underlays or overlays. Therefore, a lot of horseplayers end up writing tickets that simply reflect their opinions of who could win, forgetting about the notion of value.
Racing
Racing Roundtable: Penn Derby Day and Churchill Downs After Dark
The Roundtable gang of James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson are back to comment on the weekend action highlighted by Pennsylvania Derby Day at Parx and Downs After Dark at Churchill Downs.
Racing
Identifying versatile sires can lead to lucrative payoffs
When a male racehorse enjoys success racing over a particular surface (dirt, turf, or synthetic), it’s easy to assume his progeny will follow suit. But sometimes they prove more versatile than expected.
Racing
How to bet With, and Against, Yesternight in the Dogwood Stakes
A well-matched field of nine sophomore fillies will vie in the $300,000 Dogwood S. (G3) at Churchill Downs on Saturday.
Racing
When betting lightly raced juveniles, analyze the horses they’ve run against
When handicapping lightly raced juveniles who have only run one or two times, it’s helpful to examine the quality of horses they’ve competed against to get a feel for which runners are coming out of high-quality races.
Racing
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Maiden Watch: Private Desire posts fast win
Seven weeks out from the 2023 Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita, possible Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) contenders continue to emerge from maiden special weights around the country.
Racing
Betting Intelligence: Dea Matrona vs. Dazzling Star in Natalma Stakes
In an alternate universe, Dea Matrona might have been the Godolphin shipper in Saturday’s Natalma (G1) at Woodbine, rather than the one making her North American debut for Chad Brown.
Racing
When juveniles return from Royal Ascot, they’re often ready to win
It’s common to see American juveniles show promise when debuting stateside, fall to defeat at Royal Ascot, and then bounce back like nothing happened when they return to the United States.
Racing
Catching My Eye: Closing Day at Colonial Downs
Kevin Kilroy goes over horses of interest as he analyzes closing day at Colonial Downs.
Features
Presque Isle Downs Selections and Analysis for Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2023
Dick Powell offers his selections and analysis for Wednesday's card at Presque Isle Downs.
Wagering
Racing Round Table: Thoughts on Tamara and turf racing
Following a busy weekend in Kentucky, Virginia, California, and Europe, James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson reflect on it all in this week's Racing Roundtable.
Racing
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Maiden Watch: Slider breaks through at Del Mar
At this time of year, you can usually count on at least one juvenile per week to deliver an exciting maiden victory. Last week, the excitement came courtesy of a bay colt named Slider.
Breeders Cup
Sunday Juvenile Stakes Plays for Kentucky Downs
A pair of $500,000 stakes races for two-year-olds will highlight the action at Kentucky Downs on Sunday.
Wagering
Stakes Spot Plays for Colonial Downs Sept. 9
A total of six stakes races on the green will take center stage during a big afternoon of action at Colonial Downs. Here are a trio of horses that I will be using on the fantastic card.
Wagering
Exotics Wagers for the Virginia Derby
A talented field of 11 three-year-olds will go 1 1/8 miles on the Colonial Downs lawn in Saturday’s $500,000 Virginia Derby (G3).
Wagering
When favorites are out of form, up-and-comers can surprise
An accomplished racehorse in subpar form can be vulnerable against up-and-coming but less accomplished rivals.
Racing
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Maiden Watch: Locked finishes fast at Saratoga
We won’t mince words: on Friday at Saratoga, Locked posted one of the most impressive maiden victories by any horse in the past few years.
Breeders Cup
How to bet the 2023 Spinaway Stakes
A fantastic field of 10 two-year-old fillies will run seven panels on the Saratoga main surface in Sunday’s $300,000 Spinaway S. (G1).
Wagering
How to bet With, and Against, Geaux Rocket Ride in the Pacific Classic
An outstanding field of 11, including a trio of fantastic sophomores, will vie in Saturday’s $1 million Pacific Classic S. (G1) at Del Mar.
Analysis
Saturday Stakes Selections for Colonial Downs
A handful of black-type events on the turf for the Virginians will highlight a big Saturday of racing at Colonial Downs.
Analysis
Catching My Eye: Closing Weekend at Ellis Park
These are names we know and it’s no surprise to see them saddle a big maiden-winner over closing weekend at Ellis Park.
Analysis
Racing Roundtable: Arcangelo, Echo Zulu, and rebound candidates from Travers weekend
James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson comment on what we learned from the Travers (G1) and other action from the weekend at Saratoga.
Racing
Improving horses can turn the tables on seemingly superior rivals
Just because one horse beats another the first time they face off doesn’t mean the outcome won’t be reversed in subsequent meetings. The history of horse racing is replete with examples.
Racing
Saratoga: Recent trends in Week 8 Saturday stakes
The eighth and final Saturday of the 2023 Saratoga season features three graded stakes, two of which are relatively new additions to the Spa calendar.
Analysis
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Maiden Watch: Fierceness stuns at Saratoga
Did we see the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner debut at Saratoga last Friday?
Breeders Cup
How to bet the Ellis Park Turf Stakes
A deep field of 11 fillies and mares will run 1 1/16 miles on the Ellis Park lawn in Sunday’s $125,000 Ellis Park Turf S.
Wagering
How to bet the Rancho Bernardo Handicap
A total of eight fillies and mares will travel 6 1/2 furlongs on the Del Mar dirt in Sunday’s $125,000 Rancho Bernardo H. (G3).
Wagering
Betting With, and Against, Anarchist in the Pat O'Brien Stakes
A deep field of 11 will travel seven-eighths on the Del Mar main strip in Saturday’s $250,000 Pat O’Brien S. (G2).
Wagering
Catching My Eye: Cox Bags Five Over the Weekend at Ellis
Cox racked up five more wins with nine starters, putting him at 18 wins and in position to win his fifth Ellis Park trainers' title since 2015.
Analysis
Horses debuting in stakes can win and pay nicely
Once in a while, you’ll see an unraced horse enter a stakes. You might assume an inexperienced first-time starter is overmatched against stakes-caliber rivals, but that isn’t always the case.
Education
Saratoga: Recent trends in Week 7 Saturday stakes
The biggest Saturday of the Saratoga season this week features five Grade 1 stakes, led by the $1.25 million Travers (G1).
Analysis
Presque Isle Downs Selections and Analysis for Monday, Aug. 21, 2023
Dick Powell gives his selections and analysis for Presque Isle Downs for Monday, Aug. 21, 2023. Find out more!
Wagering
Look for horses beaten by talented rivals; they can offer nice odds
In many horse races, there is a tendency among bettors to favor horses who enter in winning form. But a horse who ran well in defeat against a talented rival can be just as likely to factor.
Education
Catching My Eye: A Perfect Day for Brian Lynch
With a 10-race card including six stakes races on the dirt, this past Sunday at Ellis Park was set up for a great day of racing. The fields were stacked from top to bottom and the horses brought their best efforts resulting in thrilling finishes race after race. As a fan of the sport and a gambler, at one point all I could think was why is anyone watching or wagering on any other track?
Analysis
Training to Win: Graded Stakes race analyzation with James Scully [VIDEO]
Graded stakes are specialized races - the highest levels in Thoroughbred racing - and bettors have many factors to consider when handicapping.
Education
Saratoga: Recent trends in Week 6 Saturday stakes
Three-year-old fillies will be in the spotlight for the sixth Saturday of the Saratoga meet on Aug. 19. The time-honored $600,000 Alabama (G1) over 1 1/4 miles on the main track is the feature.
Analysis
Presque Isle Downs Selections and Analysis for Monday, Aug. 14, 2023
Dick Powell offers his selections and analysis for Monday's card at Presque Isle Downs.
Wagering
When elite speed horses duel, consider the possibility one will falter
What happens when the two best horses in a race are pacesetters with lots of early speed? The answer isn’t always what you expect.
Education
Racing Roundtable: Forte, Elite Power underscore champion status
James Scully and Kellie Reilly weigh in on Forte's victory in the Jim Dandy (G2), weekend developments in the sprint division, and more.
Features
When betting with stats, make sure they're up to date
Bettors who employ statistics in their handicapping should ask themselves from time to time whether their favorite angles are still relevant, or if the data is telling a new story.
Education
Catching My Eye: Saratoga and Ellis Park July 28 - 31
Kevin Kilroy shares the performances at both Saratoga and Ellis Park that caught his eye this past weekend.
Analysis
Sometimes, it pays to excuse a disappointing first race
If a young horse disappoints when well-bet in their first start, it can pay to take a forgiving view of the performance and assume they’ll run better second-time out.
Education
Racing Roundtable: Haskell, CCA Oaks, and Nest
James Scully and Kellie Reilly opine on the major stakes action from the weekend in our latest Racing Roundtable.
Analysis
Catching My Eye: DeVaux scores Haskell undercard upset, Saratoga nail-biter
On Saturday over a 20-minute span, Cherie DeVaux sent out two upset winners in as exciting of races as you can find, as Shotgun Hottie took the Grade 3 Molly Pitcher S. on the Haskell undercard at Monmouth and Taking Candy nosed out two fellow three-year-old flyers in a salty first-level allowance across Saratoga’s inner turf.
Analysis
Unpredictable two-year-olds provide opportunities to beat favorites
Horseplayers should be careful betting on heavily favored two-year-olds, especially during the summer when early-maturing types with flashy form lines tackle tougher races.
Racing
Del Mar: Trends to know for the 2023 summer meet
Let’s dig into some data from recent Del Mar meets to find potentially valuable trainer, jockey, and track bias stats to keep in mind when handicapping this summer.
Wagering
Racing Roundtable: Saratoga upsets abound, Haskell preview
Ashley Anderson and James Scully gather at the Roundtable to discuss some stakes action from the opening week at Saratoga and provide their early thoughts for Saturday's $1 million Haskell S. (G1) at Monmouth Park.
Analysis
Two-year-old season overview: What to look for as the Breeders' Cup approaches
What’s the best way to analyze lightly raced juveniles and find winners as summer and fall progress toward the Breeders’ Cup? We’ve compiled a few tips to aid your handicapping:
Analysis
Why seemingly good trips can actually be bad
In horse racing, the simplest form of a “bad trip” is racing wide and losing ground against a rail-skimming rival. But on the other hand, saving ground doesn’t automatically constitute a good trip.
Analysis
Keeler Johnson's 2023 picks and plays midyear ROI report
We recently crossed the halfway point in 2023, which means it’s time for a midyear check on the performance of my daily Picks and Plays and carryover analysis columns for TwinSpires Edge.
Racing
Racing Roundtable: Belmont Derby and Oaks, Idiomatic
James Scully, Ashley Anderson, and Vance Hanson gather along the roundtable to discuss the results from a pair of Grade 1 turf events for three-year-olds, the Belmont Derby and Belmont Oaks, and Delaware H. (G2) winner Idiomatic's rise in the older female dirt division.
Analysis
Catching My Eye: The Asmussen Barn Storms Ellis Park
In 64 starts since the Churchill Downs meet moved over to Ellis Park on June 10, Amussen won 22 races (34%).
Analysis
When high-class horses lose off layoffs, betting opportunities can arise
When a high-profile racehorse suffers a defeat in their first run off a layoff, it’s tempting to forgive the misfire and assume they were a bit rusty. But that isn’t always the right betting strategy.
Analysis
Pedigree clues for juveniles in Bashford Manor, Debutante Stakes at Ellis Park
Sunday’s card at Ellis Park wraps up Stephen Foster weekend with five more stakes, including two for promising juveniles. Let’s look for pedigree clues in the Debutante S. and Bashford Manor S.
Pedigree
Betting intelligence: Stephen Foster Day at Ellis Park
Weather could be a major factor on the blockbuster Stephen Foster Day card at Ellis Park. If the stormy forecast verifies, we’re looking at a wet main track, and at best, a rain-affected turf course. With that in mind, here are contenders to consider beyond the obvious favorites.
Wagering
Final weekend of Ellis Park: Track profile, vulnerable favorites, and high impact jockeys
It’s the final week of the Churchill Downs meet at Ellis Park. Two trends have been present from the outset.
Analysis
Royal Ascot 2023: Top 10 takeaways
While the proliferation of longshots was a recurring theme of Royal Ascot 2023, there’s much more to be gleaned from the five action-packed days. Here’s my synthesis, in top 10 style.
Royal Ascot
Catching My Eye: Ellis Park June 22-25
This week on Catching My Eye, we’ll look to polish off a few efforts that maybe don't look so impressive on the page, but considering the track bias at Ellis Park, they were really valiant efforts.
Analysis
Ellis Park: Track Profile, Vulnerable Favorites, and High Impact Jockeys
Whether you’ve been paying close attention or want to turn your focus to Ellis Park, here are some trends to guide your play.
Features
2023 Royal Ascot: Selections for Wednesday
The Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” Prince of Wales’s (G1) is the highlight of Royal Ascot Wednesday, with a small but select field squaring off. Enhancing the day’s puzzles are an incredibly tricky Queen Mary (G2) with 28 juvenile fillies, and a Queen’s Vase (G2) with perhaps more than usual strength in depth among three-year-old stayers.
Royal Ascot
How track bias and post stats can point out logical winners
Finding a near-certain winner in a horse race isn’t easy, but analyzing track bias and post position statistics can help uncover the likeliest of winners.
Education
Catching My Eye: Ellis Park June 15-19
Ian Wilkes is a conditioner who has strong success bringing his horses along race-by-race, so when you see him send out a first time starter to the winner’s circle, you know that’s a horse to keep your eyes on.
Analysis
2023 Royal Ascot: Selections for Tuesday
The Royal Ascot meeting gets off to a rollicking start Tuesday with two “Win and You’re In” events for the Breeders’ Cup, the Queen Anne (G1) for older milers and the King’s Stand (G1) for the speediest sprinters.
Royal Ascot
Royal Ascot 2023: Lady Aurelia's son American Rascal tops Ward's hopes
Trainer Wesley Ward makes his annual raid on Royal Ascot with a four-strong team including American Rascal (the first foal of a past superstar of this meeting, Lady Aurelia) and Twilight Gleaming. But there are U.S. shippers from other barns as well.
Royal Ascot
Australians Artorius, The Astrologist set for Royal Ascot's 2023 Jubilee
We continue our look at the Australian team for Royal Ascot with the two contenders for the June 24 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee (G1), Artorius and The Astrologist.
Royal Ascot
Royal Ascot 2023: Australians Coolangatta, Cannonball aim for King's Stand
One year after Australian speedster Nature Strip ran his rivals ragged at Royal Ascot, two of his compatriots will try to follow up his performance in the King's Stand (G1).
Royal Ascot
Royal Ascot 2023: Hong Kong's Wellington looms in Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee
Hong Kong champion Wellington commands respect in his first international venture in the June 24 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee (G1) at Royal Ascot.
Royal Ascot
In some graded stakes, historical trends reveal standout contenders
Some races are dominated by a particular type of horse year after year, and bettors attuned to these trends have a better-than-average chance to cash nice payoffs.
Education
Catching My Eye: The Matt Winn (G3) and weekend racing at Ellis Park
Racing analyst Kevin Kilroy looks back at the Matt Winn (G3) won by Disarm on Sunday, along with impressive performances from a handful of runners over the weekend at Ellis Park.
Analysis
2023 Belmont Stakes: Which horses are bred to handle the distance?
Which horses in the 2023 Belmont (G1) field are most likely to handle the 1 1/2-mile distance? We’ve ranked the top five based on their breeding.
Belmont Stakes
10-year Belmont Stakes trends favor Forte, Tapit Trice in 2023 field
Below we examine some of the 10-year trends of the Belmont S., from trainers and jockeys to leading sires and more, to narrow down the most likely winner of the 1 1/2-mile “Test of the Champion.”
Belmont Stakes
2023 Belmont Stakes News & Notes
Your one-stop shop for everything related to the 2023 Belmont Stakes!
Belmont Stakes
Catching My Eye: Asmussen and Kenneally runners at Churchill Downs
Racing analyst Kevin Kilroy weighs in on a pair of Steve Asmussen runners and a trio from the barn of Eddie Kenneally who caught his attention at Churchill Downs.
Features
Stats and storylines for 2023 Belmont Stakes
The 155th running of the $1.5 million Belmont S. (G1) on June 10 will wrap up the Triple Crown. Known as the “Test of the Champion,” the Belmont is the oldest and longest race in the Triple Crown series.
Belmont Stakes
Catching My Eye: Churchill Downs May 26-28
Racing analyst Kevin Kilroy discusses a number of horses who caught his attention at Churchill Downs last weekend.
Features
Stakes jottings: Six contenders to watch on May 27
In studying the Saturday stakes, several contenders prompted note-taking. We’ll find out if any qualify as actionable intelligence or turn out to be merely random scribbling!
Racing
Subtleties in race grades can produce lucrative payoffs
You might assume that a Grade 1 race is better than a Grade 2, and a Grade 2 is better than a Grade 3. That’s a good rule of thumb, but it doesn’t always hold true.
Racing
Catching My Eye: Churchill Downs Saturday, May 20
Through the first three weeks of the spring meet, horses taking inside trips on the main track are struggling to hold on at Churchill Downs.
Analysis
Four takeaways from 2023 Preakness Stakes
For the fourth straight year, the Preakness (G1) winner did not run in the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Preakness Stakes
Post position success in the Preakness
Below we look at which gates have produced the most winners and examine which horses in the 2023 edition of the Preakness are most likely to succeed based on recent history at Pimlico.
Preakness Stakes
Preakness: Which new shooters can beat Mage?
If Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Mage is going to add Saturday’s $1.25 million Preakness (G1) at Pimlico to his roster of victories, he’ll have to defeat seven new shooters who skipped the Derby.
Preakness Stakes
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Mage
It’s safe to say Mage hails from a family of Kentucky Derby veterans. His sire, grandsire, and dam sire all started in the Run for the Roses.
Kentucky Derby