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Final weekend of Ellis Park: Track profile, vulnerable favorites, and high impact jockeys
It’s the final week of the Churchill Downs meet at Ellis Park. Two trends have been present from the outset.
Analysis
Royal Ascot 2023: Top 10 takeaways
While the proliferation of longshots was a recurring theme of Royal Ascot 2023, there’s much more to be gleaned from the five action-packed days. Here’s my synthesis, in top 10 style.
Royal Ascot
Catching My Eye: Ellis Park June 22-25
This week on Catching My Eye, we’ll look to polish off a few efforts that maybe don't look so impressive on the page, but considering the track bias at Ellis Park, they were really valiant efforts.
Analysis
Ellis Park: Track Profile, Vulnerable Favorites, and High Impact Jockeys
Whether you’ve been paying close attention or want to turn your focus to Ellis Park, here are some trends to guide your play.
Analysis
2023 Royal Ascot: Selections for Wednesday
The Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” Prince of Wales’s (G1) is the highlight of Royal Ascot Wednesday, with a small but select field squaring off. Enhancing the day’s puzzles are an incredibly tricky Queen Mary (G2) with 28 juvenile fillies, and a Queen’s Vase (G2) with perhaps more than usual strength in depth among three-year-old stayers.
Royal Ascot
How track bias and post stats can point out logical winners
Finding a near-certain winner in a horse race isn’t easy, but analyzing track bias and post position statistics can help uncover the likeliest of winners.
Analysis
Catching My Eye: Ellis Park June 15-19
Ian Wilkes is a conditioner who has strong success bringing his horses along race-by-race, so when you see him send out a first time starter to the winner’s circle, you know that’s a horse to keep your eyes on.
Analysis
2023 Royal Ascot: Selections for Tuesday
The Royal Ascot meeting gets off to a rollicking start Tuesday with two “Win and You’re In” events for the Breeders’ Cup, the Queen Anne (G1) for older milers and the King’s Stand (G1) for the speediest sprinters.
Royal Ascot
Royal Ascot 2023: Lady Aurelia's son American Rascal tops Ward's hopes
Trainer Wesley Ward makes his annual raid on Royal Ascot with a four-strong team including American Rascal (the first foal of a past superstar of this meeting, Lady Aurelia) and Twilight Gleaming. But there are U.S. shippers from other barns as well.
Royal Ascot
Australians Artorius, The Astrologist set for Royal Ascot's 2023 Jubilee
We continue our look at the Australian team for Royal Ascot with the two contenders for the June 24 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee (G1), Artorius and The Astrologist.
Royal Ascot
Royal Ascot 2023: Australians Coolangatta, Cannonball aim for King's Stand
One year after Australian speedster Nature Strip ran his rivals ragged at Royal Ascot, two of his compatriots will try to follow up his performance in the King's Stand (G1).
Royal Ascot
Royal Ascot 2023: Hong Kong's Wellington looms in Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee
Hong Kong champion Wellington commands respect in his first international venture in the June 24 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee (G1) at Royal Ascot.
Royal Ascot
In some graded stakes, historical trends reveal standout contenders
Some races are dominated by a particular type of horse year after year, and bettors attuned to these trends have a better-than-average chance to cash nice payoffs.
Analysis
Catching My Eye: The Matt Winn (G3) and weekend racing at Ellis Park
Racing analyst Kevin Kilroy looks back at the Matt Winn (G3) won by Disarm on Sunday, along with impressive performances from a handful of runners over the weekend at Ellis Park.
Analysis
2023 Belmont Stakes: Which horses are bred to handle the distance?
Which horses in the 2023 Belmont (G1) field are most likely to handle the 1 1/2-mile distance? We’ve ranked the top five based on their breeding.
Triple Crown
10-year Belmont Stakes trends favor Forte, Tapit Trice in 2023 field
Below we examine some of the 10-year trends of the Belmont S., from trainers and jockeys to leading sires and more, to narrow down the most likely winner of the 1 1/2-mile “Test of the Champion.”
Belmont Stakes
2023 Belmont Stakes News & Notes
Your one-stop shop for everything related to the 2023 Belmont Stakes!
Belmont Stakes
Catching My Eye: Asmussen and Kenneally runners at Churchill Downs
Racing analyst Kevin Kilroy weighs in on a pair of Steve Asmussen runners and a trio from the barn of Eddie Kenneally who caught his attention at Churchill Downs.
Analysis
Stats and storylines for 2023 Belmont Stakes
The 155th running of the $1.5 million Belmont S. (G1) on June 10 will wrap up the Triple Crown. Known as the “Test of the Champion,” the Belmont is the oldest and longest race in the Triple Crown series.
Belmont Stakes
Catching My Eye: Churchill Downs May 26-28
Racing analyst Kevin Kilroy discusses a number of horses who caught his attention at Churchill Downs last weekend.
Analysis
Stakes jottings: Six contenders to watch on May 27
In studying the Saturday stakes, several contenders prompted note-taking. We’ll find out if any qualify as actionable intelligence or turn out to be merely random scribbling!
Analysis
Subtleties in race grades can produce lucrative payoffs
You might assume that a Grade 1 race is better than a Grade 2, and a Grade 2 is better than a Grade 3. That’s a good rule of thumb, but it doesn’t always hold true.
Analysis
Catching My Eye: Churchill Downs Saturday, May 20
Through the first three weeks of the spring meet, horses taking inside trips on the main track are struggling to hold on at Churchill Downs.
Analysis
Four takeaways from 2023 Preakness Stakes
For the fourth straight year, the Preakness (G1) winner did not run in the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Preakness Stakes
Post position success in the Preakness
Below we look at which gates have produced the most winners and examine which horses in the 2023 edition of the Preakness are most likely to succeed based on recent history at Pimlico.
Preakness Stakes
Preakness: Which new shooters can beat Mage?
If Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Mage is going to add Saturday’s $1.25 million Preakness (G1) at Pimlico to his roster of victories, he’ll have to defeat seven new shooters who skipped the Derby.
Triple Crown
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Mage
It’s safe to say Mage hails from a family of Kentucky Derby veterans. His sire, grandsire, and dam sire all started in the Run for the Roses.
Horse
Preakness Stakes
Brisnet Speed Rating report for 2023 Preakness
Only a couple of days remain until Monday’s post position draw for the 148th running of the $1.5 million Preakness at Pimlico on May 20. Let's examine Brisnet Speed ratings for the contenders
Triple Crown
Watch out when route runners are actually sprinters
It’s not uncommon to see young horses run well in their first route race, only to falter in subsequent two-turn events. A single victory running long isn’t always indicative of a true route racer in the making.
Analysis
Catching My Eye: Churchill Downs, May 11-14
Racing analyst Kevin Kilroy shares which horses caught his eye at Churchill Downs the week after the Kentucky Derby.
Analysis
This key moment is vital for Mage to win the Preakness Stakes
Mage will enter Saturday’s $1.5 million Preakness at Pimlico off a one-length victory under the Twin Spires, and four of the last 11 Kentucky Derby winners have come right back to add the second leg of the Triple Crown 14 days later.
Preakness Stakes
When analyzing layoffs, sometimes basic handicapping trumps all
There are many ways handicappers can gauge whether a horse is ready to win off a long layoff. One of the simplest is, has the horse shown the ability to win a race like the one you’re handicapping?
Analysis
Catching My Eye: Kentucky Derby Weekend at Churchill Downs
Analyst Kevin Kilroy looks back on the weekend of racing at Churchill Downs, including the 149th Kentucky Derby (G1), the Pat Day Mile (G2), and the Kentucky Oaks (G1) undercard.
Kentucky Derby
Racing Roundtable: 2023 Kentucky Derby weekend
James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson recap the events of Kentucky Derby weekend in this edition of the Racing Roundtable.
Kentucky Derby
2023 Kentucky Derby: Five Takeaways You Need to Know After Mage's Win in 149th Race
Mage’s victory as a 15-1 chance in Saturday’s 149th running of the Kentucky Derby (G1) will leave plenty of food for thought in the coming days. For the moment, here are five instant takeaways.
Kentucky Derby
Mage – Kentucky Derby Context
Mage launched an eye-catching, sweeping move past Forte on the far turn of the Florida Derby (G1) to strike the front in upper stretch, eventually winding up second to the odds-on favorite in only his third start.
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby International Scouting Report: Mandarin Hero
Mandarin Hero will be the third Japanese runner in Kentucky Derby 149. There are a couple of key differences from compatriots Derma Sotogake and Continuar.
Kentucky Derby
Betting Guide: Official Kentucky Derby 149 Betting Guides
In our Meet the Contenders edition, we focus on providing insight on each of the horses poised to start in the Kentucky Derby. Download this free betting guide below!
Triple Crown
Top 10 angles to watch in 2023 Kentucky Derby
The 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1) offers several intriguing historical angles. As we settle in to enjoy the 149th Run for the Roses, let’s see which come to pass, and how many are deferred for another year.
Kentucky Derby
Angel of Empire – Kentucky Derby Context
An off-the-pace runner, Angel of Empire displayed a terrific turn of foot in the Arkansas Derby (G1), surging from sixth to reach the lead by the top of the stretch, and the up-and-coming colt established himself as a serious Kentucky Derby contender while notching his first triple-digit Brisnet Speed rating (101)
Pedigree
Tapit Trice – Kentucky Derby Context
A powerful late runner, Tapit Trice will bring a four-race win streak into the Kentucky Derby, including stakes tallies in the Blue Grass (G1) and Tampa Bay Derby (G3).
Kentucky Derby
Derma Sotogake – Kentucky Derby Context
One of two Japanese horses in the Kentucky Derby field, Derma Sotogake established himself as a contender recording a fast win in the UAE Derby (G2), leading all the way to score by 5 1/2 lengths.
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby jockey profile: James Graham
Jockey James Graham is slated to ride Confidence Game in the 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1), which will mark Graham’s third time competing in the historic 1 1/4-mile classic.
Kentucky Derby
More named Future Wager options get 2023 Kentucky Derby starts
With the Kentucky Derby (G1) just one day away, it’s worth a look to see how the Future Wager pools are set to play out, and how that might impact betting strategies for the big race.
Kentucky Derby
Who was the biggest underdog ever to win the Kentucky Derby?
Most recent underdogs weren’t facing an overwhelming favorite or toppling a budding superstar or two. In fact, many underdog winners can be judged less on how much they paid, but by who they beat.
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby jockey profile: Kazushi Kimura
Kazushi Kimura has enjoyed abundant success riding in the United States and Canada. The young jockey from Hokkaido, Japan has repeatedly won acclaim, not to mention hundreds of races.
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby jockey profile: Juan Hernandez
One of the hottest up-and-coming jockeys in the nation is Juan Hernandez, who is slated to make his Kentucky Derby (G1) debut aboard Skinner.
Kentucky Derby
Jason Beem's Thursday Column for May 4, 2023
Jason gives his picks for the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Kentucky Oaks (G1) at Churchill Downs.
Kentucky Derby
Betting with, and against, Forte in the Kentucky Derby
The historic contest attracted a fantastic field full of excellent contenders for this edition of the tilt, but the clear one to beat is Champion #15 Forte (3-1) for conditioner Todd Pletcher.
Triple Crown
Catching My Eye: Mornings with the Kentucky Derby and Oaks Runners
Working on the Kentucky Derby notes team, I’ve been on the backside from the opening set at 5:15 a.m. until the final gallop at 10:00 a.m. every day for the last week.
Triple Crown
Brisnet Speed Rating Report for 2023 Kentucky Derby
Brisnet Speed ratings provide a measure of how fast horses have run in their preceding races and serve as a valuable handicapping tool for Saturday’s 149th running of the $3 million Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: King Russell
One start after securing his initial victory, King Russell finished second in the Arkansas Derby (G1) to emerge as a contender for the 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1).
Triple Crown
Kentucky Derby jockey profile: Jareth Loveberry
Jockey Jareth Loveberry has been riding since 2005, winning more than 1,750 races from over 12,800 mounts. Now he's slated to ride in the Kentucky Derby aboard Two Phil's.
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby jockey profile: Ryusei Sakai
One of the younger jockeys slated to ride in the 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1) is Ryusei Sakai. He's traveling from Japan to guide Continuar in the Run for the Roses.
Kentucky Derby
Reviewing the final workouts of Kentucky Derby contenders
As of Monday morning, with just hours remaining until the Kentucky Derby (G1) post position draw, the majority of the Derby contenders have completed their final pre-race workouts.
Triple Crown
Cyclone Mischief – Kentucky Derby Context
Cyclone Mischief will be expected to show speed if he makes the Kentucky Derby field. Last seen finishing third in the Florida Derby (G1), the bay colt still needs a defection in the days leading up to the post position draw on May 1
Kentucky Derby
How to think about the post position factor in Kentucky Derby handicapping
Whether a post is good or bad is generally dependent on who occupies it and/or what their running style is, while many times events simply overtake any advantages or disadvantages related to it away.
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Oaks international scouting report: Mimi Kakushi
Named for a Japanese restaurant in Dubai, Mimi Kakushi is the second straight UAE Oaks (G3) winner to try the Kentucky Oaks (G1).
International
Continuar – Kentucky Derby Context
An expected deep closer, Continuar will seek to improve upon a late-running third in the UAE Derby (G2) when he starts in the Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs.
Kentucky Derby
Skinner – Kentucky Derby Context
A late runner, Skinner enters the Kentucky Derby on the upswing for a Kentucky Derby-winning trainer.
Kentucky Derby
Analyzing 30 years of Kentucky Derby pace fractions
Once upon a time, the Kentucky Derby was a race in which any running style could regularly succeed. But times have changed.
Kentucky Derby
Sun Thunder – Kentucky Derby Context
Sun Thunder will need the right set up; the one-dimensional late runner will be rallying from off the pace in the Kentucky Derby.
Kentucky Derby
Jace's Road – Kentucky Derby Context
Jace’s Road led all the way on slow fractions when romping in December’s Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds, and the bay colt will attempt to race close to the pace in the Kentucky Derby.
Kentucky Derby
Reincarnate – Kentucky Derby Context
A frontrunning winner of January’s Sham (G3) at Santa Anita, Reincarnate will look to show speed from the Kentucky Derby starting gate.
Kentucky Derby
Catching My Eye: Brian Hernandez Jr. and Reylu Gutierrez at Keeneland
Two jockeys had big days at Keeneland on Saturday. Brian Hernandez Jr. won three races including piloting home 13-1 Aunt Becca, and Rey Gutierrez bagged two, most impressively aboard 12-1 Front Run the Fed.
Analysis
When it comes to trainer stats, nuance matters
Trainer stats are among the most valuable tools horseplayers have at their disposal. But a trainer’s overall win percentage is only one part of the story.
Analysis
Keeler Johnson's Top 5 contenders to watch for the 2023 Kentucky Derby
Less than two weeks out from the 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1), here’s where I’m leaning with my top five Derby contenders.
Triple Crown
Racing Roundtable: Red Route One and Oaklawn Handicap
James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson discuss Red Route One's Preakness hopes, the Oaklawn H. (G2), and what else caught their eye in this week's Racing Roundtable.
Preakness Stakes
Disarm – Kentucky Derby Context
Disarm has the look of an up-and-comer, a promising colt starting to figure things out following placings in his first two stakes appearances, and he will need to take a significant step forward to challenge in the Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby
Lord Miles – Kentucky Derby Context
Lord Miles will look to back up a game win in the Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct, outfinishing a pair of fancied rivals to record a nose upset at 59-1
Kentucky Derby
Confidence Game – Kentucky Derby Context
After leading all the way in his first two wins, Confidence Game showed his versatility winning the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park in late February, rating just off the pace in fifth along the backstretch before commencing his rally on the far turn
Kentucky Derby
Verifying – Kentucky Derby Context
Verifying exits a commendable second in the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland, missing by a neck to Tapit Trice, and his speed adds to the appeal
Kentucky Derby
Hit Show – Kentucky Derby Context
A stalker, Hit Show has raced within striking range in all three wins, including a sharp 5 1/2-length score in February’s Withers (G3) at Aqueduct two starts back, and he’ll seek to rebound after coming up a nose short as the favorite from just off the pace in the Wood Memorial (G2)
Kentucky Derby
Horses on the bubble for the 2023 Kentucky Derby
There remains a handful of horses on the outside looking in at trying to make the field of 20, including several prominent Southern California representatives.
Kentucky Derby
Ranking the final 2023 Road to the Kentucky Derby preps
There were eight races in advance of the 2023 Kentucky Derby in which the winning horse received 100 qualifying points. It is usually from this group that we find the eventual Derby winner.
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Mandarin Hero
Does Mandarin Hero have the breeding to shine racing 1 1/4 miles in the Kentucky Derby?
Horse
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Cyclone Mischief
Can Cyclone Mischief become the third son of Into Mischief to win the Kentucky Derby (G1)?
Horse
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Skinner
If Skinner's pedigree is any indication, racing 1 1/4 miles in the Kentucky Derby (G1) may bring about a career-best performance from the bay colt.
Horse
Betting Strategy: Using the Power Box at Keeneland April 22
When I have clear groupings for the horses I want to use, but I believe the finishing order will be a cross section of these multiple groupings, I use a Power Box.
Analysis
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Disarm
The cross of Gun Runner with Tapit mares has already produced several high-level racehorses, including 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1) contender Disarm.
Horse
Forte – Kentucky Derby Context
The Kentucky Derby favorite, Forte will bring a five-race win streak to the Kentucky Derby.
Pedigree
When three-year-olds face older horses, the class level matters
Traditional handicapping guidance explains that three-year-old Thoroughbreds are rarely ready to challenge older horses before autumn. But the equation can change at lower class levels.
Analysis
Two Phil's – Kentucky Derby Context
A midpack stalker, Two Phil’s switched to Turfway Park’s synthetic Tapeta track for his final prep, rolling to a 5 1/4-length win in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) in late March
Kentucky Derby
Practical Move – Kentucky Derby Context
The top-ranked contender out west, Practical Move will enter the Kentucky Derby on a three-race win streak, recording convincing triumphs in the San Felipe (G2) and Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) before courageously holding for a nose score in the Santa Anita Derby (G1)
Kentucky Derby
Kingsbarns – Kentucky Derby Context
Projected to show speed, Kingbarns rates as a pacesetting candidate after leading from gate to wire in the Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds
Kentucky Derby
Rocket Can – Kentucky Derby Context
A projected stalker, Rocket Can will seek to establish up-close positioning in the Kentucky Derby.
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Sun Thunder
By picking up Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying points in a quartet of prep races, Sun Thunder earned his ticket to the 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1).
Horse
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Verifying
There are many well-bred horses slated to start in the 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1), but few—if any—can boast as blueblood a pedigree as Blue Grass (G1) runner-up Verifying.
Horse
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: First Mission
The Road to the Kentucky Derby wrapped up with the 1 1/16-mile Lexington (G3) at Keeneland, in which the beautifully bred First Mission battled up the inside to score a tenacious victory.
Horse
Catching My Eye: Keeneland racing Sunday, April 16
I’ve been enjoying this Keeneland meet: the fields, the performances, and the payouts have all been strong.
Analysis
Racing Roundtable: Lexington Stakes and Grade 1 older stars
James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson touch on the final Road to the Kentucky Derby prep and some Grade 1 performances from the older set in this week's Racing Roundtable.
Analysis
The impact of the new Road to the Kentucky Derby points system
Four consistent horses that in previous years would not have made the Kentucky Derby field are set to make it this year under the new points system that rewards those which run more often in prep races.
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby Report – Thrilling conclusion to major qualifiers
The Blue Grass (G1), Santa Anita Derby (G1), and Wood Memorial (G2) concluded the eight major qualifiers in the Road to the Kentucky Derby series, each race awarding points on a 100-40-30-20-10 basis to the top five finishers, and a 20-horse field has taken shape for Churchill Downs on May 6.
Triple Crown
Jason Beem's Thursday Column for Apr. 13, 2023
Jason follows up on a discussion from his podcast about the "all-button".
Analysis
Meet the Contenders: 2023 Lexington Stakes
Meet the horses running in the 2023 Lexington (G3) over 1 1/16 miles at Keeneland. For each horse, we're listing a pro, a con, and a rating of potential.
Triple Crown
Should you bet or dismiss a horse off a bad race?
It happens all the time. A horse enters a race off a poor performance in its previous start, leaving bettors to wonder—will the horse rebound, or run badly again?
Analysis
Racing Roundtable: Developments on the road to the Kentucky Derby and Oaks
James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson discuss developments on the final major weekend of Kentucky Derby (G1) and Kentucky Oaks (G1) preps in this edition of the Racing Roundtable.
Analysis